Show Notes
Israel's escalating campaign against Iran-backed Hizballah is rapidly turning Lebanon into one of the most unstable fronts in the wider US-Israel confrontation with Iran — pushing an already fragile state to the brink. The war is tearing at Lebanon's sectarian and political fabric, displacing Shiite communities and deepening polarization between Hizballah and its rivals. The government that came to power in February 2025 on a wave of optimism now faces a perfect storm. What does this mean for Lebanon — a country long seen as one of the Middle East's rare democracies? Today, we unpack how the Iran war and Israel's campaign are reshaping Lebanon's democratic future.
More from Rethinking Democracy
A Turkish court has taken a dramatic step that could reshape the country's political landscape. It annulled the results of the CHP's 2023 party congress, effectively overturning the election of Özgür Özel as leader of Turkey's main opposition party and potentially paving the way for former chairman Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to return.
As the world's attention shifts to the Iran war, Gaza is increasingly disappearing from the international spotlight. But more than six months after the United Nations endorsed a peace plan for Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe continues.
In 2025, jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan made a historic call for the group to disarm and dissolve, raising hopes of ending a 40-year conflict that has shaped Turkey and the wider region. Months later, the PKK symbolically laid down arms in what many viewed as a breakthrough moment for the peace process. But more than a year later, the process appears increasingly fragile. Turkey's pro-Kurdish party accuses the government of failing to build on the momentum created by Öcalan's call, while Ankara, Kurdish political actors, and even Öcalan himself have traded blame over delays and lack of progress. So where does the process go from here? Could violence return? Does Öcalan still command full authority over the PKK? And how are regional developments — from Syria to Iran — reshaping the future of efforts to disarm the PKK? To discuss all this, I'm joined by Kurdish affairs expert Aliza Marcus. Purchase Aliza's new book, Resurgence and Revolution: The PKK and the Kurdish Fight in Turkey and Syria, here.
Syria is in the midst of a fragile transition. Many observers see positive momentum, with new humanitarian initiatives underway and fresh funding beginning to flow. But the risks remain serious: regional spillover, deep humanitarian needs, funding shortfalls, Israeli strikes, sectarian tensions, stalled political tracks, and continued reports of abuses by multiple actors.
Just weeks before President Trump's war began, Iran was in the midst of a powerful wave of anti-regime protests spreading across the country.