
TIP813: Microsoft (MSFT): Is Microsoft a Misunderstood AI Opportunity? w/ Daniel Mahncke & Shawn O’Malley
The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast NetworkShow Notes
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O'Malley take a deep dive into Microsoft — the $3 trillion incumbent whose entire investment thesis now hinges on two of the most contested questions in technology: whether AI will reinforce or quietly dismantle the software franchises that built the company, and whether the OpenAI partnership is the strategic masterstroke it appeared to be in 2023, or a relationship that is slowly turning from asset into liability.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: (00:00:00) Intro (00:01:27) About all major business units (00:12:05) How LinkedIn’s business works (00:18:24) How the cloud business keeps growing (00:21:17) What the future plans for gaming are (00:24:49) Why the Office products might be in danger (00:50:52) How AI is challenging Microsoft’s software (00:55:10) Who captures the most value from AI (01:22:46) Valuation discussion of Microsoft (01:26:13) Whether Shawn and Daniel add MSFT to the Intrinsic Value Portfolio
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community.
Microsoft Investor Relations.
World Economic Forum Interview with CEO.
Follow Daniel on X and Linkedin.
Follow Shawn on X and Linkedin.
Related books mentioned in the podcast.
Ad-free episodes on our Premium Feed.
NEW TO THE SHOW?
Get smarter about valuing businesses through The Intrinsic Value Newsletter.
Check out The Investor’s Podcast Starter Packs.
Follow our official social media accounts: X | LinkedIn | Facebook.
Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance.
Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services.
Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts.
SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors:
Plus500
Netsuite
Shopify
Vanta
References to any third-party products, services, or advertisers do not constitute endorsements, and The Investor’s Podcast Network is not responsible for any claims made by them.
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm
Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a pre
More from The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley follow up last year’s TransDigm pitch with the biggest monopoly in aviation: GE Aerospace (NYSE: GE), the engine maker behind nearly three out of every four commercial flights in the world. With roughly 50,000 commercial and 30,000 military engines in service, GE has the largest installed engine base worldwide. That’s the reason Chris Hohn bets about 30% of his $50+ billion portfolio on it.
In this episode, William Green speaks with Matt Ludmer, the founder & CEO of Aligned Wealth Management. Matt is a financial adviser to wealthy individuals & families, including clients who have entrusted him with tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars. After decades working on Wall Street, he came to realize he’d misunderstood the meaning of wealth. That revelation led him to write a new book, “The Right Mountain: Practical Wisdom for Achieving True Wealth.” Here, he explores how to build a fulfilling life that includes—& transcends—financial success.
In today's episode, Kyle Grieve and Shawn O’Malley discuss Aritzia, the everyday luxury fashion brand that has become one of retail's most impressive compounders. They explore how a small boutique in the corner of a department store grew into a brand with exceptional store-based economics, a spotless balance sheet, and a huge untapped opportunity across America. With the stock falling even as the business posts some of its best growth ever, they debate whether this is a rare chance to own a durable compounder or a hot brand nearing its peak.
In this episode, William Green speaks with multibillionaire Sir Michael Moritz, arguably the most successful venture capitalist ever. He spent nearly four decades at Sequoia Capital, which invested in early-stage companies like Nvidia, Google, YouTube, PayPal, Airbnb, LinkedIn & Stripe. Here, he talks about his unconventional path to success, the role of temperament in investing, & what he learned from observing Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, Jensen Huang & Elon Musk.
Daniel Mahncke and Shawn O’Malley revisit the two luxury houses they passed on last time — Hermès (EPA: RMS), the 189-year-old maker of the Birkin bag, and LVMH (EPA: MC), the 75-brand conglomerate behind Louis Vuitton, Dior, Tiffany, and Hennessy. Both stocks now sit near their lows: Hermès is down more than 50% from its February 2025 peak and trades at 32 times earnings for the first time in a decade, while LVMH has fallen to a five-year low after two straight years of declining sales — something that didn’t even happen in 2009. The luxury industry has lost roughly 70 million customers since 2022, the Chinese market that tripled between 2017 and 2021 has been shrinking ever since, and a war in the Gulf emptied the stores on the Champs-Élysées of their best-spending tourists.