Show Notes
Payments companies were among the first to experience the pressures that hit the fintech scene and the broader software industry over the past couple of years. Now activity is reviving, with several big deals. What’s changed, and which other parts of the sector stand to thrive amid ongoing disruption? Jason Gurandiano, Head of U.S. Technology Banking and Global Head of Fintech Banking, is joined by colleagues Matt Thomas and Asif Ahsan for the second part of their analysis. Key points Payments companies are trading at a discount relative to cashflow and are likely to see strong M&A activity. Agentic commerce and stablecoin are potential game-changers in payments. Strategics are targeting companies with a hardware component alongside proprietary data as moats against AI. Digital assets and trading platforms are among the subverticals with strongly favorable signals.
Chapter markers: Introductions [00:06] Joe Coletti introduces the second part of a discussion led by Jason Gurandiano, Head of U.S. Technology Banking and Global Head of Fintech Banking, with Matt Thomas, Managing Director in Technology Investment Banking, and Asif Ahsan, Managing Director in Technology M&A.
Payments strength [00:46] Activity in the payments sector has picked up meaningfully in the past three months. The space has become more global and less fragmented, as companies seek to own whole steps of the value chain. Many payments companies are trading at a discount and this is an area of likely continuing M&A activity.
Impact of agentic commerce and stablecoin [04:34] Agentic commerce is set to transform payments, and will drive transactions to ensure security against fraud. Stablecoin is becoming institutionalized and could prove disruptive to traditional banking when paired with consumers’ digital wallets.
Information services outlook [08:13] Information services companies’ success rests on whether their data is truly proprietary or can be easily replicated. A combination of proprietary data and hardware is increasingly valued by companies looking to do M&A.
Subvertical verdicts [10:17] Summing up their views, participants are broadly bullish about payments and financial software. Views on market structure, information services, and disruptive financial services are mixed, with some players facing greater risks. Signs are good for digital assets, crypto, and tokenization, with strong innovation and maturing players.
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