What to Expect When You’re Expecting Great Power Conflict

Russia is losing ground in eastern Ukraine and suffering mounting casualties. So why is the White House handing Vladimir Putin a lifeline? Retired Australian Army major general Mick Ryan, author of the newsletter Futura Doctrina, joins Aaron MacLean to examine the links between the Iran war and Ukraine, and explains why Ukraine’s battlefield successes aren’t translating into political advantage. Putin’s best hope, Ryan argues, is getting Donald Trump on his side: “He’s tried everything else and it hasn’t worked.” Could Washington give Putin what his army can’t?

During the Cultural Revolution, the Chinese Communist Party purged Xi Jinping’s father and subjected him to 16 years of persecution and imprisonment—so how did the current president of China emerge more devoted to the party than ever? “It’s like a comic book villain origin story,” says Aaron MacLean. Today, Joseph Torigian, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of The Party’s Interests Come First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping, joins School of War to explore the strange and dark story of China’s current president, the brutality of Mao’s China, and how it all shaped the power dynamics in Beijing today.

In the Baltics, war with Russia is no abstraction. Putin could take Lithuania’s capital if he achieved surprise, the nation’s army commander told Aaron MacLean. This week, Aaron travels through Lithuania and Latvia to speak with Brigadier General Nerijus Stankevičius, Lithuanian defense Minister Robertas Kaunas, and Latvian foreign minister Baiba Braže about why Lithuania is amending its constitution to allow weapons of mass destruction on its soil, what schoolchildren are learning in their war-preparedness exercises, and what each country is doing now to make sure they’re ready if war comes.

America is running low on munitions, its shipyards can’t keep pace, and the materials its weapons depend on too often run through China. Michael Cadenazzi is the Pentagon official charged with turning that around, putting billions of dollars behind the factories, materials, and supply chains that make America’s military power possible. He joins School of War to explain how the Pentagon plans to ramp up weapons production, attract private investment, and break decades of bad habits in how the Pentagon does business. Cadenazzi is confident America can still mobilize its industrial might for a major war, but he warns that waiting until the shooting starts would be “way more expensive in blood and treasure.” The race to rearm is on, and the question is whether America can win it before the next great-power war begins.

A young researcher in Siberia has died under mysterious circumstances, raising questions about a potential lab leak. Russia won’t say how it happened. Marshall Billingslea, former Special Presidential Envoy for Arms Control, says Moscow has scrubbed news reports, had officials walk back talk of an outbreak, and kept the World Health Organization in the dark. He joins School of War to fill in what the Kremlin won’t, taking us inside Russia’s expanding bioweapons program and the institute at the heart of the mystery, which defectors say ran a covert effort to weaponize the disease and make it resistant to antibiotics. He also explains how Moscow thinks about using these weapons, how China is building a program of its own, and why the most frightening of them pose a risk even nuclear weapons don’t.