Summary
Donald Trump's net approval rating has plummeted since he took office in 2025, dropping over 30 points, which has opened the door for Democrats to potentially reclaim both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterms. Political consultant Sarah Longwell attributes this decline to specific decisions made by Trump, including unilateral tariffs and the initiation of the war with Iran, both of which have negatively impacted the economy and led to rising prices. Voters, particularly those who previously supported Trump, express frustration over the lack of improvement in their daily lives, feeling that he has broken his promises to enhance their economic situation.
Longwell's extensive focus group research reveals a significant shift in voter sentiment, with many expressing disappointment in Trump's handling of inflation and economic issues. While some Trump supporters remain loyal due to cultural and identity politics, a growing number are disillusioned by the tangible impacts of his policies, particularly rising costs of living. This discontent has led to an increased focus on corruption, with voters now more aware of Trump's alleged self-serving actions, which they perceive as a betrayal of their interests.
The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape, where issues like immigration and data centers are becoming increasingly salient. Voters express a desire for politicians who can address their concerns about economic stability and the changing job market, particularly in light of advancements in AI and technology. Longwell emphasizes the need for candidates who can authentically connect with voters and articulate a vision that resonates with their everyday experiences, suggesting that the political discourse is shifting towards a more nuanced understanding of the electorate's needs.
Show Notes
Sarah Longwell has probably conducted more focus groups with Trump voters than anyone else in America — hundreds of them, starting in Trump’s first term. So she has a treasure trove of qualitative evidence of how voters have evolved in the Trump era and why many of the president’s voters are souring on him now.
Trump’s approval rating has plummeted since the start of his second term, especially among the groups that swung toward him in the last election — young, Black and Hispanic voters. But I wanted to have Longwell on the show to hear what these people are really saying. What exactly has disappointed them about Trump’s second term? And what opportunities could that open for Democrats?
Longwell is a founder and the publisher of The Bulwark, the host of “The Focus Group Podcast” and the author of “How to Eat an Elephant: One Voter at a Time.”
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