Show Notes
The US government has historically spent approximately $12 billion to $15 billion annually in foreign assistance dedicated to global health. The funding cuts announced in the first few months of 2025 disrupted the global health landscape and created the possibility of enormous funding gaps that are still coming into focus. In response, GiveWell has approved around $18 million in grants to support urgent needs—but why has our research led us not to grant more funds yet?
In today’s episode, the third in our series examining the impact of these cuts, GiveWell CEO and co-founder Elie Hassenfeld is joined by Director of Research Teryn Mattox to explore this question. Building on our previous conversations about program disruptions and emergency responses, they dive into the nuanced reality of the current funding landscape and GiveWell’s evidence-based approach to grantmaking during uncertainty.
Elie and Teryn discuss: Increased need on the horizon: While current impacts haven’t been as severe as the 90% cuts that we initially feared, forecasts suggest that US global health aid may be cut by approximately 50% in fiscal year 2026. We anticipate the most significant funding gaps will likely emerge later. For example, a new fiscal year begins for the US government after September 2025, and the administration will have greater flexibility to enact reductions to global health spending it has discussed. Reinstatement of many critical programs: Many initially terminated contracts, particularly in high-impact areas that we know well like malaria programs, have been reinstated in the short term. A rough analysis suggests that more than 80% of malaria programming has been reinstated for the time being, including some of the most cost-effective programs we’ve identified, which has reduced the immediate need for emergency funding. Expanding our search for emerging opportunities: We think the shifts in US government funding have likely created new, highly cost-effective opportunities. We’re rapidly exploring new areas that have been hit hard by these funding cuts, such as integrated health programs (which deliver multiple services to communities) and family planning. While it takes time to get up to speed before we can make cost-effective grants in these new areas, we are aiming to move more quickly than is typical by leaning on learning over time versus building a high degree of confidence first. GiveWell is actively identifying funding opportunities and recommending grants to help with urgent situations, but we are now primarily concerned with predicting and planning for likely significant cuts in the upcoming US government fiscal year, and with gathering the resources needed to respond. We’ve formed a “rapid response team” to quickly assess urgent funding gaps, and we are considering a “learn by giving” approach in promising new areas to build organizational knowledge while addressing immediate needs.
Visit our USAID Funding Cuts webpage to learn more about our response and how you can help, and listen or subscribe to our podcast for the latest updates. This episode was recorded on April 15, 2025 and represents our best understanding at that time.
More from GiveWell Conversations
In an effort to direct substantially more funding to the most cost-effective opportunities we can find to help people, GiveWell’s research is expanding in two directions at once: going broader, to cover more areas of global health and development, and going deeper, to improve the inputs that inform our decision-making.
GiveWell works to continually improve our research so we can make better grant decisions and direct donations where we believe they can do the most good. GiveWell’s Cross-Cutting research subteam is an important part of that effort—it investigates the impact of the programs we fund, works to resolve our largest uncertainties, and aims to improve our research. As GiveWell’s grantmaking grows, the Cross-Cutting subteam is strengthening our data collection and analysis to support that growth. In this episode, GiveWell co-founder and CEO Elie Hassenfeld speaks with Program Director Alex Cohen, who leads the Cross-Cutting subteam, about how better data can improve our decision-making, our work to gather stronger evidence, and the ways we’ve tested AI as a tool to increase our research capacity and quality.
GiveWell, with co-funding from Coefficient Giving, recently made our largest grant to date: $276 million to the Against Malaria Foundation (AMF) to support the procurement and distribution of 92 million nets in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) from 2027 through 2029. We estimate that the nets, 46 million of which we think would not otherwise be distributed, will avert roughly 67,000 deaths. We have supported AMF’s work for more than 15 years, and the insecticide-treated nets it procures and distributes remain one of the most cost-effective ways we've found to save lives.
When GiveWell investigates a new cause area, we’re often focused on two priorities: directing funding where we think it can help people most and generating evidence to inform larger investments later. Family planning is a clear example. Recent foreign aid cuts—including reductions from the US, UK, and Dutch governments—deepened an already substantial need and opened up new cost-effective funding opportunities.
Diarrhea is one of the leading causes of death for children under five, killing more than 400,000 children every year. GiveWell has funded several programs to prevent and treat diarrhea, and we recently expanded our work by making a grant to support the implementation and evaluation of WASHmobile in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and South Sudan. The program, which was developed by Johns Hopkins University, delivers water treatment supplies and hygiene messaging to households at the highest risk of diarrheal disease. It has shown promising results in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) but hasn’t yet been implemented at scale in the challenging settings where the need is greatest.