#423 Jordi Visser: Why the AI Bears Are Wrong — and the One Asset He’d Bet On Right Now

David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research and author of Bear in the Bull Ring, says he has never seen so many imbalances in the economy and markets in his 40-year career. He argues we’re in an AI-driven bubble, now in “extra innings.” Ten stocks make up over 40% of market cap while the median stock is down nearly 20%. The Shiller CAPE has topped 40 and the equity risk premium has turned negative. Beneath roughly 2% GDP growth, he sees an economy held up by AI capex, a falling savings rate and stock-market wealth effects, while hiring stalls and real incomes shrink. Rosenberg warns that Kevin Warsh’s Fed risks a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock with a flat yield curve. He also flags fading fiscal stimulus, midterm gridlock and canceled data center projects as headwinds that put recession odds above 50-50 for 2027. His prescription is to de-risk without going to zero equities: shift toward Treasuries (two-year and 10-year notes), defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare and REITs, gold, and some cash, so you’re one of the “strong hands” when the cycle turns.

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Julia and Chris start with President Trump’s $5,000 cash dividend promise, which Whalen calls “bread and circuses,” and why affordability, driven by gasoline and diesel prices tied to the war with Iran, could deliver a 50-seat House swing to Democrats. Whalen says we’re already on a double-digit inflation path, points to September’s PPI as the highest since late 2022, and argues the Fed may be forced to hike before the midterms, possibly over Chairman Warsh’s objection. Fresh from the Mortgage Bankers Association conference in Chicago, he shares why industry insiders like Stan Middleman expect home prices to soften 5–10% over the next three years, how construction costs are putting a floor under prices, and why layoffs are hitting mortgage lenders and realtors. He also covers United Wholesale Mortgage, bank earnings (JPMorgan’s miss and Bank of America’s record $1.5 billion OCC fine), and why he sees the AI trade as circular finance heading for a reset. They close with viewer questions on banks holding low-coupon COVID-era mortgages and the outlook for Annaly.

New York Times’ bestselling author Larry McDonald, founder of The Bear Traps Report, returns to The Julia La Roche Show to explain why he believes the market’s surface strength hides serious stress underneath. He points to cracks in AI data center financing: canceled data center IPOs, collapsing CoreWeave bond prices, and a surge in convertible bond issuance from neoclouds, which he calls the “last saloon” warning sign last seen in 1999 and 2021. With consumers hit by higher rates, soaring diesel and jet fuel costs, and iconic brands like Nike, Home Depot and McDonald’s down sharply, McDonald argues the Fed is “faking” its hiking cycle and that smart money now expects three rate cuts before three hikes. He describes an internal market crash masked by passive flows into mega-cap tech, explains the year-end “convergence trade,” and makes his case for why gold could run from $4,000 to $6,500 and why silver may be one of the best trades of the next 12 months

In this week's episode of The Wrap with Chris Whalen, Chris joins Julia La Roche to break down why affordability, the economy and the Iran war have put Republicans on the defensive, and why a Democratic Congress could mean two years of investigations and a tougher regulatory climate for markets. Ahead of the Mortgage Bankers Association annual in Chicago, Chris says the mortgage business is facing a “funeral,” with volumes and profits down, headcount still bloated from COVID, and plenty of firms quietly for sale. He explains why inflation and soaring construction costs are keeping home prices supported despite 7%+ mortgage rates, and why he’s pushing back on Jim Bianco’s bullish bond call. In Chris’s view, the federal deficit nobody in Washington or at the Fed wants to discuss is the biggest force behind higher long-term yields. He also covers the narrow, AI-driven stock market, stalled bank stocks, and viewer questions on capital gains taxes, home prices and whether energy stocks still make sense if the Iran war ends.

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, joins The Julia La Roche Show for a special episode featuring their fireside chat from the Greenwich Economic Forum. Dalio explains the five forces he sees driving today's world: the debt cycle, internal political conflict, the breakdown of the post-1945 geopolitical order, acts of nature, and technology, especially AI. He says rising bond yields reflect a basic supply-and-demand problem. Washington spends about $7 trillion a year but takes in about $5 trillion, and foreign buyers like China and Japan are pulling back. He warns that a debt "heart attack" is likely within the next two years. He calls the period after the midterms and through 2028 especially risky, and says markets are in a bubble by his own indicators, comparing today to the tech boom before 1929. Dalio also discusses why he recommends 5–15% in gold, why he holds only about 1% in Bitcoin, and where he sees opportunity: companies being transformed by AI, ASEAN countries, Singapore, the UAE, and inflation-indexed bonds with real yields near 3%. He closes with the three things that make a country successful. A special thank you to the Greenwich Economic Forum for having me as a moderator! Visit https://www.thegeforum.com/