What Happens When Wheat Stops Paying?

Britain's 2026 harvest has been brutally early, dry and disappointing.

With cereal yields down across much of the country, the obvious story is drought. But the economics underneath it may be more important. Herefordshire farmer Martin Williams joins Richard Prideaux and Richard Negus to explain why he decided last year not to grow cereals at all.

What follows is a wider conversation about the business of British farming: shrinking margins, fertiliser and fuel costs, SFI, global grain markets, dairy, land prices, mixed farming, anaerobic digestion and solar.

They also look at the uncomfortable question of what farmers should actually do when producing food no longer offers the best return from their land. Martin argues that British agriculture is already consolidating, that policy has helped shape some decidedly odd business decisions, and that adapting to a changing climate will require more than simply hoping next year's weather is kinder.

The conversation finishes with water: storing more of it, keeping more of it in soils, sharing it better, and using it to build farming businesses capable of coping with hotter summers and wetter winters.

Plus: Poldark, recreational tillage and the important distinction between a Merlo and a bottle of Merlot.

In this episodeWhy Martin Williams decided not to grow cereals this year What the 2026 harvest looks like across England and Scotland Why wheat margins have become increasingly difficult for some farmers The impact of fertiliser, diesel and other input costs How SFI and agricultural policy are influencing cropping decisions Why a poor UK harvest does not necessarily mean higher food prices Global grain markets, Russia and the importance of logistics Land values, agricultural borrowing and the strange economics of farmland Why dairy farmers can be buying and selling cows at the same time Whether British farming could ever return to more mixed farming systems The long-term decline in the number of farms and the consolidation of agriculture Energy crops, anaerobic digestion and the debate around food versus fuel Solar farms, land use and what happens to agricultural land over the long term How climate change and increasingly erratic weather affect farm resilience Why Martin thinks water storage and water management should be a priority for British farming The role of collaboration, farm reservoirs and soil organic matter in adapting to drier summers LinksSustainable Farming Incentive 2026 — Defra guidance Agricultural Industries Confederation (AIC) AIC policy team — including Ed Barker Lloyds Bank agriculture — with Ben Makowiecki Future Biogas — anaerobic digestion and energy crops Turriff Show National Farmers’ Union Defra drought support — including funding for on-farm reservoirs Defra guidance on farming during prolonged dry weather and drought CreditsPresented by Richard Negus and Richard Prideaux

Produced for SideCountry by George Browne and edited by Amy Green.

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