Show Notes
US markets are quiet ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final decision of the year, with traders widely expecting a quarter-point “hawkish cut” and a fresh dot plot showing only one more cut penciled in for 2026. Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference and the scope of any dissents will be key as officials juggle inflation, which remains roughly a whole point above target, a softening labor market, and a post-shutdown GDP rebound. The White House has also begun interviewing candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Governor Kevin Warsh, while NEC Director Kevin Hassett remains the perceived frontrunner.
The AI trade faces its next test with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe (ADBE) reporting after the bell. Oracle must convince Wall Street that massive OpenAI-linked data-center spending and negative free cash flow are justified by future revenue and remaining performance obligations. At the same time, Adobe navigates investor questions about AI competition from tools like Google’s Gemini and how effectively it can weave generative AI into Creative Cloud. At the same time, bond yields on the 10-year and 30-year remain elevated even as markets bet on more easing next year, reflecting concerns over debt, inflation, and policy uncertainty.
In media and tech, Netflix (NFLX) has agreed to buy the studio and streaming assets of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) in a $72 billion cash-and-stock deal, picking up HBO, Max and franchises like Harry Potter, Game of Thrones, DC, Friends, and The Sopranos while keeping that IP out of Paramount (PARA) and Comcast’s (CMCSA) hands. Analysts say the acquisition widens the gap between Netflix and its smaller rivals, but raises regulatory and integration questions. Apple (AAPL) is under fresh scrutiny after a wave of senior departures in operations, design, AI, and legal, even as iPhone and services demand keep the stock near record highs. Trending tickers include SpaceX, which is reportedly eyeing a 2026 IPO valuing the company near $1.5 trillion, GE Vernova (GEV) after an upbeat AI-driven power outlook, and Chewy (CHWY) on stronger customer spend and improving active users.
Takeaways:
Fed expected to deliver a 25 bp “hawkish cut” and update its dot plot at the final meeting of 2025
Internal dissents and the next Fed chair race add uncertainty to the 2026 rate path
Oracle and Adobe earnings serve as a fresh stress test for the AI infrastructure and software trade
Netflix to acquire Warner Bros' studio and streaming assets for $72B, tightening its grip on top Hollywood IP
Apple faces a high-profile management reshuffle even as iPhone and services strength keep investors onside
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