The Spillover

Brazil’s Runoff Election Is a Close Race Between Lula and Bolsonaro

The Spillover

Show Notes

Brazil’s runoff is a dead heat, but markets are betting that Flávio Bolsonaro, son of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, will win and finally rein in the country’s debt. This week on The Spillover, Rebecca Patterson and CFR Senior Vice President Shannon O’Neil unpack why voters and investors want different things from Brazil’s leadership, and what this election could signal for Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, and the region at large.

Host:

Rebecca Patterson, Senior Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Guest:

Shannon K. O’Neil, Senior Vice President of Studies and Maurice R. Greenberg Chair, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)

Mentioned on the Episode:

Angela Pinho, “20% say violence is the country's main problem, and 18% cite health, Datafolha points out,” Diario de Comercio

Adam B. Ellick, “Online Gambling and Crushing Debt Are Transforming Brazil,” New York Times

Want to keep up with The Spillover? Sign up to receive an email alert when new episodes are released.

The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

More from The Spillover

Oct 15, 2026

With the 2026 U.S. midterm elections just weeks away, Rebecca Patterson and Veda Partners Cofounder Henrietta Treyz discuss an impending confrontation over the debt ceiling in the lame-duck session. They warn that a 2011-style standoff could unfold if political brinkmanship and a lack of serious effort to stabilize the country’s debt trajectory continue.

Oct 7, 2026

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack what they got right—and wrong—in their forecasts over the course of the year so far, covering the “Fragile Four” economies, OpenAI’s funding crisis, the AI IPO race, the Iran war, and more.

Oct 1, 2026

This week on The Spillover, hosts Rebecca Patterson and Sebastian Mallaby are joined by Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, to discuss how the Federal Reserve has fallen behind the curve on inflation, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s task forces, and the role of AI in monetary policymaking.

Sep 25, 2026

This week on The Spillover, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson sit down with author and historian Anne Applebaum to discuss Europe, the ongoing war in Ukraine, and the escalating geopolitical headwinds the region faces.

Sep 14, 2026

This week, hosts Sebastian Mallaby and Rebecca Patterson unpack Nvidia’s deal to purchase Hugging Face, the leading platform for open-weight AI models. The acquisition, they argue, highlights a battle between two visions of how the AI industry will develop, as well as concerns about safety and oligopoly.

See all episodes →