AI and the Octopus Organization: Autonomy, Distributed Intelligence, and Faster Decision-Making

Your company is spending real money on AI and the CFO wants to know what it is getting back. David Rogers calls the awkward silence that follows the AI value gap. David Rogers wrote the first book on digital transformation. He returns to The Innovation Show to unpack the AI value gap, drawing on a Harvard Business Review article he co-wrote with Krishnan Sankaranarayanan, who leads AI transformation at Eastman. When AI fails to show up in the financial results, David traces the shortfall to strategy, and he shows leaders how to fix it. In this conversation, David Rogers reveals: • Why one minute saved by AI vanishes in one company and transforms another • The AI value equation, and why its three factors multiply • Why handing AI to a team with no P&L ownership kills the return • The "magic wand" myth that frontier labs sell to executives • How AI drones cut plant downtime by 30 to 40 percent in oil and gas • Why Netflix points its AI at customer retention instead of acquisition • How two chemical companies in the same industry need completely different AI bets • The one discipline to apply before you start any AI pilot Chapters 00:00 What is a value driver? 01:45 Why AI fails to show up in financial results 03:00 The AI value gap and the awkward CFO conversation 08:10 Why one minute saved can vanish or transform a business 12:30 The AI value equation 15:00 Four reasons companies skip strategic alignment 23:40 Step one, define your value drivers 27:10 Step two, know where you sit in the value chain 30:30 Step three, trace opportunities to the income statement 33:00 Step four, decide how you will measure financial return 34:40 Listener question on AI adoption and organisational change 37:40 Strategy is your moat 39:00 David's next book on transformation in the AI era Resources The AI Value Gap Is a Strategy Problem: https://davidrogersdigital.substack.com/p/the-ai-value-gap-is-a-strategy-problem Harvard Business Review article: https://bit.ly/HBR-Value-Gap-SS David's website: https://davidrogers.digital David's books: https://www.amazon.ie/s?i=stripbooks&rh=p_27%3ADavid%2BL.%2BRogers More from David Rogers on The Innovation Show The Digital Transformation Roadmap Part 1: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efliq61GF9M The Digital Transformation Roadmap Part 2: https://youtu.be/Wd5Av-8ME6Y Digital Transformation Playbook (10 Years On): https://youtu.be/z7eNk-J0KV0 About David Rogers David Rogers is a globally recognised authority on digital transformation and a longtime faculty member at Columbia Business School. He is the author of The Digital Transformation Roadmap, The Digital Transformation Playbook and The Network Is Your Customer. About the Host Aidan McCullen is the 2025 Thinkers50 Innovation Award recipient, keynote speaker on AI, disruption, innovation and change, host of The Innovation Show, and author of Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention (Wiley). Learn more at https://theinnovationshow.io/about-aidan-mccullen About The Innovation Show The Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes. This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses. Learn more at https://www.kyndryl.com Subscribe to the Thursday Thought: https://thethursdaythought.substack.com Website: https://theinnovationshow.io

"Nintendo unlocked a completely underserved market by simplifying the game console." Alexander Osterwalder Alexander Osterwalder returns to The Innovation Show with a world first. The co-founder of Strategyzer and creator of the Business Model Canvas shares the Value Stack, a brand new tool built on six patterns of value creation. Strategyzer has stopped writing books. Alex explains why the team has moved to applied playbooks, and how the patterns help any team articulate its value proposition and then test which benefit matters most to customers. What Alex shares in this episode - Why Nintendo won a huge new market with an inferior console - How Henry Ford turned a handcrafted luxury into a car his own factory workers could buy - Why trust was a feature for Airbnb and the entire proposition for FedEx overnight - How Google Ads rescued advertisers from wasting half their budget - Why Salesforce Trailblazers prove identity builders work in B2B, well beyond Harley-Davidson - How Diners Club invented the credit card proposition from nothing - Why Amazon Web Services scores on two patterns at once - Why Strategyzer swapped dense books for playbooks Chapters 00:00 Wii Ease Booster Hook 00:41 Sponsor Kyndryl 01:18 Guest Intro Value Stack 02:18 From Books to Playbooks 02:56 Six Value Patterns Overview 04:18 Ease Boosters Nintendo Wii 05:54 Access Boosters Ford Model T 06:48 Confidence Builders Trust 07:38 Value Catalysts Google Ads 08:20 Identity Builders Communities 08:54 Market Shapers Credit Cards 09:57 Playbook Demo and Discount 10:43 Giveaway and Where to Find 12:00 Events Closing Thanks 12:40 Sponsor Outro Kyndryl Get 20% off Strategyzer playbooks at https://www.strategyzer.com with the code INNOVATIONSHOW20. Win a digital copy of The Invincible Company. Name the gentleman on Alex's slide (he co-authored one of Alex's first books) by replying to the Thursday Thought, with thanks to Kyndryl: https://thethursdaythought.substack.com Alex joins Aidan in Dublin on 1 and 2 December for Enterprise Ireland client sessions. Looking for a keynote speaker on innovation or change in Ireland that week? Get in touch at https://theinnovationshow.io About the Guest Alexander Osterwalder is the co-founder of Strategyzer and the inventor of the Business Model Canvas. He is lead author of Business Model Generation, Value Proposition Design and The Invincible Company. https://www.strategyzer.com About the Host Aidan McCullen is the 2025 Thinkers50 Innovation Award recipient, keynote speaker on AI, disruption, innovation and change, host of The Innovation Show, and author of Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention (Wiley). Learn more about Aidan: https://theinnovationshow.io/about-aidan-mccullen This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses. With a unique blend of AI-powered consulting built on unmatched managed-service capability, Kyndryl helps leaders harness technology for smarter decisions, faster innovation, and lasting competitive edge. Learn more about Kyndryl and the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com About The Innovation Show: the Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes. Website: https://theinnovationshow.io Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-innovation-show/id1148455669 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/63nFKf4bsSWo3W72gWtOsK?si=b62d9614237c4450 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theinnovationshow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidanmccullen

"If there's something that's terrible, it's this fuzzy value proposition with AI slop." Alex Osterwalder, co-founder of Strategyzer and inventor of the Business Model Canvas, returns to The Innovation Show with a field report on AI value proposition design. A few weeks ago he argued that AI should never replace the human struggle of value proposition work. Drawing on recent work with a large client's product owners and product managers, he now shows Aidan McCullen where AI earns its place, once a team has done the homework that gives a language model something worth working with. In this conversation, Alex reveals: - The four evidence-backed artifacts every team needs before AI writes a word of its value proposition - Why high-level input to an LLM produces high-level output, and how to stop it - How Strategyzer fed its own customer profiles and value stacks into AI and was surprised by the hero copy that came back - The Value Stack, a new tool that sorts benefits into a key value driver, supporting benefits and table stakes - What Gmail's one gigabyte of free storage in 2004 teaches about the single benefit that brings customers to you - Why a large European marketing team demoted its own "differentiators" to table stakes the first time it used the Value Stack - How the marketer's job shifts towards overseeing AI, much as software developers now oversee coding agents - Why agents can run 100 customer interviews in an hour yet still cannot decide what to build - The reason Alex says AI has no taste, and what that means for product judgment Chapters: 00:00 Sponsor Message 00:22 Why AI For Value Props 01:44 Field Insights And Demand 03:26 Homework Before AI 04:43 Four Core Artifacts 06:33 Generating Assets With AI 08:10 Marketers As Overseers 10:01 Value Stack Explained 15:15 Agents And Human Judgment 17:41 Wrap Up And Giveaway 18:55 Sponsor Closing Notes About Alex Osterwalder: CEO and Founder of Strategyzer, inventor of the Business Model Canvas, and lead author of Business Model Generation and Value Proposition Design. Explore his tools at https://www.strategyzer.com. And I am biased but a damn good guy! Win a digital copy of Value Proposition Design, with thanks to Kyndryl. Subscribe to the Thursday Thought on Substack to enter: https://thethursdaythought.substack.com Get 20% off the Strategyzer platform with code INNOVATIONSHOW20 at https://www.strategyzer.com This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses. With a unique blend of AI-powered consulting built on unmatched managed-service capability, Kyndryl helps leaders harness technology for smarter decisions, faster innovation, and lasting competitive edge. Learn more about Kyndryl and the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com. About the Host: Aidan McCullen is the 2025 Thinkers50 Innovation Award recipient, keynote speaker on AI, disruption, innovation and change, host of The Innovation Show, and author of Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention (Wiley). Learn more at https://theinnovationshow.io/about-aidan-mccullen About The Innovation Show: the Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes, with conversations on disruption, innovation, change, transformation, leadership and AI. Website: https://theinnovationshow.io Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-innovation-show/id1148455669 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/63nFKf4bsSWo3W72gWtOsK?si=b62d9614237c4450 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theinnovationshow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidanmccullen

"You know how I know what the real culture of a company is? [Two] things. Who gets the money and who gets promoted." Robert Burgelman, the Edmund W. Littlefield Professor of Management at Stanford Graduate School of Business and author of Strategy is Destiny and Inside Corporate Innovation, returns to The Innovation Show to discuss how companies renew themselves from the middle. His new paper with Sasanka Sekhar Chanda revisits three Intel decisions through James March's model of exploration and exploitation. Top management keeps backing an autonomous initiative while it teaches the company something new, and support stops when the learning stops. In this conversation, Robert reveals: - The fab capacity rule that moved Intel from memory chips into microprocessors years before top management recognised the shift - Why a margin rule told him more about Intel's culture than any values statement, and how the same logic cost Intel the iPhone chip - How Andy Grove spent $750 million on ProShare video conferencing, a business that never passed about $30 million - Why Intel's own people called its RISC processor a YARP, years before ARM made the architecture dominant in mobile - The Grove line that sank Intel's networking pitch - Why the burden of proof always sits with the innovator - The people map that helped build Nike's women's business, and why Infosys Consulting needed one - How to spot a strategic inflection point by watching the rate of change in growth - What a 3M executive told him about the famous 15% time - Why the parking lot on Friday nights and Saturday mornings reveals your real innovators Chapters: 00:00 Growth Problems Insight 01:18 Culture Money Promotions 02:31 Intel Weeds Seeds Setup 05:12 Three Intel Cases 10:02 Cognitive Rules ProShare 20:43 Define Autonomous Strategy 30:26 Intel Capacity Rule Shift 39:22 Strategic Context Battle 47:25 People Mapping Politics 53:58 Signals Inflection Derivative 57:00 Encouraging Autonomy 3M 01:02:46 Tragic Heroes Conclusion 01:05:16 Where To Find Paper Read the paper (Stanford GSB working paper): https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/working-papers/autonomous-strategic-behavior-organizational-learning-top Robert Burgelman at Stanford GSB: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/robert-burgelman This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses. With a unique blend of AI-powered consulting built on unmatched managed-service capability, Kyndryl helps leaders harness technology for smarter decisions, faster innovation, and lasting competitive edge. Learn more about Kyndryl and the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com. About the Host: Aidan McCullen is the 2025 Thinkers50 Innovation Award recipient, keynote speaker on AI, disruption, innovation and change, host of The Innovation Show, and author of Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention (Wiley). https://theinnovationshow.io/about-aidan-mccullen About The Innovation Show: the Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes, with conversations with world-class authors, scientists and practitioners on disruption, innovation, change, transformation and leadership. Website: https://theinnovationshow.io Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-innovation-show/id1148455669 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/63nFKf4bsSWo3W72gWtOsK?si=b62d9614237c4450 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theinnovationshow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidanmccullen

"A good idea and a bad idea look very similar early on." David J Bland David Bland, founder of Precoil and lead author of Testing Business Ideas with Alex Osterwalder, helped DuPont and its semiconductor spin-off Qnity build an experimentation capability that surfaces risk early and speeds up commit, correct and cut decisions. The work contributed to a 2026 IRI Innovation Excellence Award for Outstanding Innovative Culture. Across 35 real growth opportunities, DuPont saved over $12M by stopping weak projects and has so far generated about $24M from the ideas that passed their tests. In this conversation, David reveals: - How DuPont saved over $12M by stopping projects early, and earned about $24M from the ones that survived - Why David opens and closes his keynotes with his own bad calls, including a kitty litter brand later sold for a billion dollars - Why a leader should never facilitate their own team's assumptions mapping session - How the assumptions map changed its labels three times before a whiteboard session with Alex Osterwalder at Stanford - Why most business plans amount to "creative fiction in Excel" - The leadership whiplash that drags companies between Six Sigma efficiency and innovation drives - Dead Projects Day, the Halloween event where DuPont leaders dressed up to explain the projects they killed - Why sales and legal belong in the room before the first experiment runs - How to use AI as a sparring partner while keeping your critical thinking Chapters: 00:00 AI As Sparring Partner 00:53 Innovation Leaders And Whiplash 04:00 Meet David Bland 09:47 Productive Failure And Assumptions 15:12 Leadership Swings And Efficiency 17:36 DuPont Case Study Origins 21:53 Big Bets And HIPPO Dynamics 23:48 Facilitating Assumptions Mapping 29:45 Evidence Labels Evolve 31:59 Business Plans Are Hallucinations 34:53 DuPont Derisking Results 39:20 Making Change Stick In DNA 42:28 How DuPont Built Capability 47:49 Socialise Wins And Kills 50:50 Bring Sales And Legal Early 52:56 Where To Find David Bland Find David Bland at https://www.precoil.com and https://davidjbland.com Read the DuPont case study: https://www.precoil.com/articles/case-study-dupont About the Host: Aidan McCullen is the 2025 Thinkers50 Innovation Award recipient, keynote speaker on AI, disruption, innovation and change, host of The Innovation Show, and author of Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention (Wiley). Learn more: https://theinnovationshow.io/about-aidan-mccullen This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses. With a unique blend of AI-powered consulting built on unmatched managed-service capability, Kyndryl helps leaders harness technology for smarter decisions, faster innovation, and lasting competitive edge. Learn more about Kyndryl and the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com. Subscribe to the Thursday Thought on Substack for a chance to win a copy of Testing Business Ideas, with thanks to Kyndryl: https://thethursdaythought.substack.com About The Innovation Show: the Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes, with conversations on disruption, innovation, change, transformation and leadership. Website: https://theinnovationshow.io Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-innovation-show/id1148455669 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/63nFKf4bsSWo3W72gWtOsK?si=b62d9614237c4450 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theinnovationshow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidanmccullen