Ep #001 Prediction Markets

In the pilot episode of The Unlimited Hangout Podcast, Whitney Webb and Mark Goodwin discuss their latest investigation into Polymarket and how the company was born out of a desire to resurrect the US military's controversial Policy Analysis Market, also known as the Terrorism Futures Market, from 2003.

Also discussed is the largely unknown background of Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, the role of oligarch Peter Thiel in privatizing failed DARPA programs like the Policy Analysis Market, and how Coinbase helped sunset Polymarket's unofficial predecessor Augur after Coinbase's earliest employees poured money into Polymarket shortly after its founding.

0:00 Intro, Why A New Video Show, and Latest Piece Reactions

7:29 Brief History of Prediction Markets

18:57 DARPA, PAM, and Robin Hanson

32:07 Privatizing the Information Awareness Office

39:30 The Napsterization Model and Sean Parker

48:56 Shayne Coplan Before Polymarket

56:17 Joey Krug, Augur, Thiel Fellow and Founders Fund

1:05:52 Augur = Napster, Polymarket = Spotify

Read Part 1 of UH's Polymarket investigation here: https://unlimitedhangout.com/2026/06/investigative-series/the-secret-history-of-polymarket-part-1/

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Intro/Outro Music by meanthemusician.bandcamp.com