Everyone's “Jumpy” Right Now: Azeem Azhar on When—Or Is It If?—AI Can Be Profitable
Future Around & Find OutShow Notes
Everyone's feeling jumpy about AI right now—and for good reason. The hype has been massive. The investment has been astronomical. But where's the actual return? In this episode, Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View and advisor to tech leaders and governments, breaks down why the next 18 months are make-or-break for AI. Companies need to prove there's real ROI, not just prototypes launched and tokens spent. We cover: What hard evidence would actually prove AI is working (hint: it's not usage metrics) Who can build a real moat with AI—and why the winners will likely come from unexpected places, as they have in previous tech transformations The physical constraints nobody wants to talk about: chips, data centers, power grids, and whether America's infrastructure is up to the task Why OpenAI's "ubiquity strategy" might be spreading too thin (and what Anthropic is doing differently) The "pragmatic addicts" problem: we're dependent on AI even though we don't trust it How Azeem and his team use AI to be more productive, how they automate whatever they can, and why individual contributors are acting more like managers (of AI) Note: This interview was recorded months before the "SaaSpacolypse" (big market drop) of Feb 2026; the analysis is as relevant as ever.
Chapters
(01:51) - Why the next 18 months are the crucible for AI
(04:09) - What hard evidence would actually prove AI ROI (not token counts!)
(06:55) - Why it's so hard to measure AI's real impact
(09:55) - Who can build a moat with AI? Winners will be in "odd places"
(12:56) - Structural data advantages: why Waymo's edge is hard to replicate
(14:34) - Coding agents and whether developers will become disillusioned with them
(18:21) - Physical constraints: chips, data centers, power, and America's grid problem
(21:25) - How the Gulf countries became an unexpected AI hub
(27:36) - "Pragmatic addicts": why 75% of Americans distrust AI but use it anyway
(31:19) - The narrative of AI can be very unappealing: heaven on Earth or dystopia
(34:10) - How Azeem's team uses AI: augmentation vs. automation
(39:40) - What should we be talking about besides AI?
(43:20) - Sounds like science fiction: What Azeem can't believe is real and here today
Links & Resources: Exponential View: https://www.exponentialview.co/ Azeem's Boom or Bubble dashboard: https://boomorbubble.ai/ Azeem's New York Times piece on America's electric grid challenge: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/opinion/ai-electricity-power-plants.html More on the “MIT Study” claiming 95% of AI projects fail that Azeem and I both found to be really poorly done, but that is nonetheless is quoted by everyone: Here’s Azeem tearing the study apart with data: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/how-95-escaped-into-the-world And here's me riffing with Kwaku Aning on it. You know why Azeem liked my take? Because I actually read the thing, unlike ~95% of the writers out there who just quoted that 95% number: https://www.futurearound.com/p/did-anyone-actually-read-that-mit-ai-study-that-made-the-markets-swoon-i-did Support Future Around & Find Out Get the newsletter: https://www.futurearound.com Become a paid subscriber and help future proof this thing!: https://www.futurearound.com Sponsor the show? Are you looking to reach an audience of senior technologists and decision-makers? Email me: [email protected]
--- Music by Jonathan Zalben
More from Future Around & Find Out
"We all crave more humanity, more tactility, more contact with the real world. And AI done in the right way can be agentic and behind the scenes and be this kind of laid intelligence that sits underneath everything but doesn't need to shout for your attention."
What happens when a human becomes intimately enmeshed with a chatbot? This week on Future Around & Find Out we're sharing an episode from a podcast we think you'll like. Understood - Artificial Intimacy from the CBC: https://app.magellan.ai/listen_links/AIxFAFO --- Here's more about episode one, Love Bots: In 2021, Sara met Jack and fell in love. He was charming, imaginative, and bore an uncanny resemblance to Henry Cavill. But Jack wasn’t human… he was a chatbot. It sounds like science fiction, but people have been creating emotional bonds with chat bots since the very first one — Joseph Weizenbaum’s ELIZA, a simple program built in the 1960s. It revealed a powerful truth: if something has a semblance of humanity, we can become emotionally entangled with it. But what happens when your lover is technically controlled by someone else? Because in relationships with AI, there’s always a third presence in that bed with you: the developers. --- More on Understood - Artificial Intimacy: What happens when a human becomes intimately enmeshed with a chatbot? From people who’ve married their bots or who grieve their loved ones with the help of AI, host Victoria Hetherington (author of The Friend Machine) dives into the stories of the people who have invited these digital avatars into their hearts, minds, and even beds. And asks what do we gain and what do we stand to lose? Our intimacy, our resilience, even our grasp on reality?
Well, that escalated quickly! In the span of a few weeks the Trump administration went from AI regulation is dangerous and we will lose to China to an executive order calling for AI model-makers to submit to a “voluntary” review of their most advanced models to… the Friday night massacre of Anthropic’s Fable 5, which they declared too dangerous for any non-US citizen to use, which caused Anthropic to withdraw it completely. So where do go from here? It seems like, de facto, all new models will be subject to review and withdrawal. But on what criteria? And who can we trust to do this fairly? That’s what Ron J. Williams and I get into on the latest FAFO. Ron thinks a lot about trust. It’s core to the products he builds as a partner at Co-Created and as the founder of Scam Hero, an app he launched to keep people safe after his father trusted the wrong person and got scammed out of more than a million dollars.
Sam Altman and Dario Amodei both published essays this week on the future of AI and what we must do so everyone benefits. One of them is literally titled "Our Plan." The other one has an actual plan. Kwaku and I dig into it all on this week’s FAFO Friday. Plus — and this story isn’t getting enough attention — according to New Scientist, two years ago Ukraine used fully autonomous “Terminator” drones that killed everything they saw. No human in the loop. Dead Russian soldiers. But rest assured, according to the drone-maker cited, it was just a one-off “test.” But how long until this is standard practice? And do we want that future? So, yeah, maybe we should get planning… --- Support Future Around & Find Out: * Follow Dan on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/dblums/ * Get the free newsletter: https://www.futurearound.com * Become a paid subscriber and help future proof FAFO! https://www.futurearound.com/upgrade Music by Jonathan Zalben
Rajiv Pant thinks of AI as an Iron Man suit for the mind. Something you put on. That you fuse with. That takes you to greater heights — but could also make you incredibly dizzy and be very dangerous if you, the human, don't stay in control of it.