Can A Divided World Tackle Climate Change?

One year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, The Energy Podcast investigates the impact of recent events on the global energy transition, drawing on Shell’s two latest Scenarios: Sky 2050 and Archipelagos. Presented by Julia Streets, featuring László Varró, head of Shell’s Scenarios team, and Dr Nat Keohane, President of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES). Read more about the Energy Security Scenarios here. The Energy Podcast is a Fresh Air Production for Shell, produced by Annie Day and edited by Sophie Curtis.

EPISODE TRANSCRIPT: 00:00:00 Julia Streets: Today on the Energy Podcast... MUSIC BED COMES IN Dr. Nat Keohane: The energy security concerns from the Russian invasion of Ukraine actually accelerate the pace of the energy transition. Laszlo Varro: There was no single global response. Europe is the eye of the storm. It is Europe where the energy crisis had by far the biggest impact. This is a situation where the average European consumer needed no explanation that there is a crisis. 00:28:41 Julia Streets: When Russia invaded Ukraine, the world was already facing a challenging set of circumstances with post-COVID- 19 austerity looming, energy prices rising and security tensions growing. The invasion amplified many of these challenges and brought the need for secure supplies of affordable, sustainable energy to the very top of the global agenda. Today, we will be exploring the tensions that have been unleashed just over one year after the invasion, with security issues, global energy supply and geopolitical alliances all in flux. We'll also be discussing how these tensions could be resolved in a world that needs to decarbonize, drawing on Shell's latest scenarios research. Hello, I'm Julia Streets and today on the Energy Podcast, can a divided world tackle climate change? MUSIC ENDS Allow me to introduce my guest today. Our first guest is Laszlo Varro, who joined Shell in 2021 as the VP of Global Business Environment, looking at scenarios and pathways. He joined, after 10 years at the International Energy Agency, where he was most recently their chief economist. In his role at Shell, he leads up the scenarios team, which explores how the global energy system could evolve right the way through to the end of the century. So Laszlo, it's great to have you on the show. Laszlo Varro: Thank you very much. It's a pleasure to be here. Julia Streets: And joining us today is Dr. Nat Keohane, who is the president of C2ES, the Center of Climate and Energy Solutions. Before taking on that role in July 2021, Nat served for eight years as a senior vice president for climate with the Environmental Defense Fund where he led all of EDF's climates work in the United States and globally. So Nat, thank you so much for being with us. Dr. Nat Keohane: Thanks very much for having me. Julia Streets: So Laszlo, in the introduction, I mentioned that you lead the scenarios team at Shell. Can you talk us through what we mean when you talk about these scenarios? 02:34:18 Laszlo Varro: Scenario analysis came out of Cold War strategic assessments. Shell was historically the first company to use it for strategic analysis, so we are continuing a time- honored tradition. Scenarios have decision makers navigating uncertainties by reflecting on plausible futures. The Shell scenarios are not Shell's predictions, they are not Shell's commitments and they're not Shell's strategy. They are part of the information base that the leadership had navigating through the uncertain world. Now in 2022, it's fair to say that history was teaching us some very tragic lessons about uncertainties. Even before the war, there were tensions and fissures in the energy system. The post- COVID recovery in 2021 was exceptionally energy-intensive. Global carbon dioxide emissions stabilized at a level which is entirely unsustainable. Geopolitical intentions were already emerging, and debates were already emerging on the future of globalization