713: (Solo) The Black Friday Profit Trap and How to Avoid It This Year
The Foundr Podcast with Nathan ChanShow Notes
We are all gearing up for Black Friday Cyber Monday, and if you have not started planning yet, you need to. Here is a story that will stop you in your tracks: a founder in our community did $1 million over Black Friday Cyber Monday a few years ago and barely broke even. Not an exaggeration. A million dollars in revenue and almost nothing to show for it.
Here is the trap: you have a massive sales month and it looks incredible, but nobody models what that revenue actually cost. Peak November ad prices, your deepest discount of the year, cogs, shipping, returns, platform fees. Most founders plan the sale but never plan the profit.
In this episode, I break down what actually happened last year with real data, the three clocks that are already running before Black Friday, and the exact framework we shared with our Foundr Operators members at our in-person event.
Here's what you'll take away:
• The three clocks running right now, attention, inventory, and shipping, and why by November the biggest decisions have already been made for you • The real numbers: how CPMs nearly doubled from September to November while you are discounting harder than any other time of year • Why 42% of Black Friday revenue came from email and SMS, and why your own channels are the closest thing to pure margin in Q4 • Move one: sell early while attention is cheap, and how the 13% of brands that ran October promotions had the field to themselves • Move two: the exact send cadence for the first and last day of your campaign that feels uncomfortable but makes the most money • Why the founders who win Black Friday are never the ones who spend the most in November
If you are planning your biggest sales period of the year right now, this episode will help you plan for profit instead of just revenue, and build the audience that will actually be waiting to buy when CPMs double.
Quick heads up: this episode mentions our partners at Omnisend for email and SMS, and there is a special offer for listeners at omnisend.com/foundr.
If you're loving this solo series, I'd love to hear your feedback. Email me directly at [email protected] — I read every reply. Hope you enjoy it.
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