Show Notes
Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com Matt and Doug take subscriber questions for Crisis Investing while reacting to current events: a reported new $250 bill featuring Trump (and claims about a "gold note"), Trump imagery in passports, and the impact on Americans abroad. They discuss a raid on a CIA supervisor found with 303 kilos of gold, $20 million in cash, and luxury watches, raising concerns about CIA controls and corruption. The conversation turns to the Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz, arguing U.S. actions have repeatedly tightened shipping despite talk of wanting the strait open, with tolling, sanctions, and 1,500–1,700 ships reportedly stuck. They answer questions on inflation, Polymarket vs investing, how oil pricing works, what could invalidate their worldview, AI/robotics investing (favoring China/robots), OPEC weakening, skepticism on SpaceX/OpenAI/Anthropic IPOs, oil stocks and dividends, and preferred older vehicles to avoid surveillance tech. 00:00 Subscriber Q&A Setup 00:25 Trump 250 Dollar Bill 03:36 Passports and Global Backlash 05:15 Venezuela 51st State Post 07:00 CIA Gold Hoard Scandal 12:28 Iran War Fog and Losses 13:56 Hormuz Strait Toll and Sanctions 22:40 Energy Prices in Uruguay Argentina 25:38 Inflation Deficit and Collapse Risks 26:51 Betting Versus Investing 27:04 Polymarket And Market Corruption 29:03 Oil Futures Versus Physical 31:24 When The Worldview Breaks 38:12 AI Robots Real Edge 41:52 OPEC Control And Breakup 43:37 SpaceX IPO Bubble Bells 45:55 Why Own Oil Stocks 48:14 Cars Surveillance And Sweet Spot 51:09 Wrap Up And Next Week
More from Doug Casey's Take
Doug Casey and Matt Smith on the gap between the flash and the bang. The war in the Middle East started February 28th, the Strait of Hormuz is choked, and Saudi Arabia and Yemen are now at war, yet most Americans still ask "What war?" Spot oil in the North Sea is $136 while the futures market says somewhere in the $90s. Why are markets disconnected from reality, and how long before the bang? Plus Saudi Arabia and MBS, Egypt, Israel fatigue, Indonesia's gas lines, AI and the new rust belt, the Fort Hood execution, and why Doug says "the shit will really have hit the fan" anytime between tomorrow and a couple of years from now. Find us at https://crisisinvesting.comAsk Doug a question: https://crisisinvesting.com (click "Ask Doug") See Doug at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/ 00:00 Welcome And New Orleans 02:02 Worse Than The Worst Case 05:11 $136 Oil On The Ground 06:52 Markets You Can't Trust 10:36 Refineries And Fuel Shortages 13:03 Saudi Arabia Is Next 17:36 Egypt's Ticking Time Bomb 20:50 Israel Fatigue 26:04 Indonesia's Gas Lines 31:07 We Saw The Flash. Where's The Bang? 33:33 Rates, Bonds, And A Bifurcated America 36:09 AI And The New Rust Belt 39:37 Billionaires And Their Bodyguards 41:57 Kunstler And Agreeing To Disagree 44:37 Tankers In The Strait 47:36 Books: Vikings And The Mandibles 51:06 Overproduction Of Elites 52:33 Trump's $5,000 Video 54:09 The Fort Hood Execution 1:05:59 Press Secretary And Guilfoyle 1:09:23 Monica's Podcast 1:13:21 Wrap Up
Novelist and essayist James Howard Kunstler (The Long Emergency, the World Made by Hand series) joins Doug Casey and Matt Smith. Kunstler expects prosecutions after the midterms, starting with John Brennan's grand jury appearance. He also says the US military won't let radicals take the levers of power, and that the country has slid from high trust to no trust. Doug and Kunstler clash over the Iran war. Also: Europe tottering, why US shale is more fragile than it looks, what Kunstler got wrong in The Long Emergency, Israel and Gaza, Ukraine and NATO, and the deep state. Kunstler's Substack: https://www.kunstler.com Find us at https://crisisinvesting.com New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/ 00:00 Welcome James Howard Kunstler 01:08 Will Anyone Face Justice? 07:11 Brennan Before A Grand Jury 13:39 Bondi, Bongino, And Silence 18:42 Will The Military Step In? 22:35 Two Flavors Of Authoritarianism 26:14 Civil War And A Trump Bet 28:54 Europe Is Tottering 31:10 Iran, Oil, And Shale 37:31 Doug Pushes Back On Iran 41:43 Islam And Europe's Future 45:39 Invasion, Hochul, And New York 49:55 Where Are The Men Of Quality? 51:41 Trump The Paradox 55:44 Markets, Bonds, And The Carry Trade 1:01:11 Kunstler On Gold 1:02:58 The Long Emergency, 20 Years On 1:05:15 From High Trust To No Trust 1:07:59 Half The Country Is Insane 1:12:13 A Steak Of Justice 1:15:13 Is Trump An Authoritarian? 1:18:37 Israel, Gaza, And Tucker 1:24:39 The Iran Blockade 1:26:08 Ukraine And Leaving NATO 1:28:11 Brennan And The Deep State 1:31:54 Wrap Up
Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com After a brief hiatus, Doug and Matt discuss Trump's escalating rhetoric about Iran potentially nuking U.S. cities and argue the U.S. bears historical responsibility for the conflict, citing oil interests, the CIA-backed coup against Mossadegh, the Shah, and the 1979–1980 embassy crisis. Doug says Trump's actions have worsened the situation, advocates a public apology and possible indemnity to de-escalate, and predicts Trump will not complete his term due to impeachment, the 25th Amendment, assassination, or broader instability. They debate nuclear delivery realities, warn that antagonizing adversaries invites catastrophe, and frame current conflicts—Middle East shipping chokepoints, Houthi-Saudi fighting, and Russia-Ukraine maritime attacks—as kindling for World War III. They also cover French unrest, demographic and religious shifts, bond-market stress, a potential tech-bubble burst, and conclude by favoring energy and mining stocks. 00:00 Back From Hiatus 00:28 Trump Iran Nukes Talk 03:07 Why Iran Hates US 05:45 Apology Not Escalation 07:55 Trump Term Prediction 09:43 Nuclear Delivery Reality 14:33 World War Three Path 15:12 Saudi Yemen Flashpoint 20:15 Chokepoints And Shipping 26:05 Empire Bases Vulnerable 27:52 Elections And Dissidents 30:36 Islam And Instability 31:52 France Protests Breakdown 36:46 Bond Market To Collapse 39:43 Fourth Turning Theory 41:22 Worst President Forecast 43:05 Wrap Up And Investing
Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com Doug and Matt discuss escalating Yemen-Houthi conflict impacts, including disruption of Saudi oil infrastructure and potential wider geopolitical fallout as oil supplies to Europe tighten and fuel prices rise. They pivot to U.S. policy and market fragility, criticizing short-term political decision-making (including possible diesel export bans), warning about deficits, rising rates, and a looming financial crisis, while outlining a defensive investment stance favoring gold, agriculture, and energy. They debate AI fear narratives as regulatory capture, question returns on massive AI capital spending, and consider state intervention if major firms fail, noting cheaper Chinese models undercut U.S. frontier labs. Viewer Q&A covers taking state money as a moral dilemma, risk management without stop-losses in illiquid resource stocks, prospects for conflict in Latin America vs. Africa/Middle East, evaluating moral character, Botswana's diamond dependence, legal system critiques, offshore vs. onshore precious-metals storage, private deal drawbacks, and future drone warfare shifting to swarms and eventually nanotechnology. 00:00 News and Viewer Qs 00:08 Houthis and Saudi Setback 06:03 Oil Shock and Markets 08:22 Diesel Export Ban Fallout 10:02 Trade Threats and Politics 13:25 Rates Debt and Bear Case 15:15 AI Fear and Regulation 18:35 China Models and Bubble Risk 21:29 Taking Money from State 24:52 Managing Trades Without Stops 27:25 Wars Latin America Outlook 28:14 Testing Character in Relationships 34:19 Botswana and Diamond Risk 35:59 Legal System as Slavery 37:02 Battle Bank vs Offshore Vaults 38:19 Private Deals Pros and Cons 40:04 Drones Swarms and Nanobots 44:11 Wrap Up and Italy Trip
Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com Doug speaking at New Orleans Investment Conference: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/ Doug and Matt reflect on the 25th anniversary of 9/11, arguing the official narrative remains unconvincing, citing unresolved issues like Building 7 and the lack of thorough investigation, and linking this to widespread public distrust in government. They discuss escalating Middle East conflict, including Houthi territorial gains in Yemen, threats to shipping near Bab-el-Mandeb, attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and U.S. strikes on Iranian-linked tankers, while noting oil prices and market fragility amid potential rate hikes; Doug discloses he has shorted Nasdaq. They compare alleged state cover-ups to the Charlie Kirk assassination and other disputed events, then address viewer questions on AI-driven job losses, potential debt defaults, protecting oneself via assets and residency abroad, central bank gold moves (including Argentina shipping gold to London), meetups and conferences, precious-metal storage jurisdictions, and Doug's negative view of Nike as an investment. 00:00 9/11 Anniversary Reflections 02:08 Doubting the Official Story 03:35 Building 7 and Media Oddities 07:45 Middle East Escalation and Oil 12:43 Charlie Kirk Conspiracy Questions 15:34 Trust Collapse and State Power 18:20 Trump 5K Proposal Fallout 23:08 Renaming Hormuz and Narcissism 25:27 AI Job Losses Market Impact 27:27 UBI via Tax Credits 28:57 Bribing Voters Warning 30:19 Default Fallout Prep 31:36 Hard vs Soft Default 33:28 Escape Political Risk 34:05 Central Banks Move Gold 35:53 DC Meetups and Events 39:13 Uruguay Free Zone Idea 40:06 Argentina Gold to London 44:25 Where to Store Metals 46:42 Nike Stock and Woke Brands 50:21 Weekend Sign Off