Show Notes
What if the polls everyone loves to distrust are actually more accurate than ever, and the real problem is how we read them? Collin Corbett has recruited and trained more than 3,500 candidates and helped put over 850 of them on the ballot. This year, he stopped running other people's campaigns and started his own, as an independent candidate for Illinois governor. Bob and Collin get into how modern polling really works, why weighting and modeling can quietly distort the numbers, why AI still cannot replace real data from real people, and what two decades of trial and error taught Collin about asking the right question. If you have ever wondered whether a poll can be trusted, or what it takes to turn messy public opinion into a smart decision, this one is for you. Listen now.
Timestamped Highlights [00:02:08] The stretch of a campaign nobody sees coming, and why candidates are exhausted before it even starts [00:03:50] Why the moment you are needed is usually the moment you are least ready [00:07:31] How almost 38,000 signatures beat the you need 50,000 conventional wisdom [00:08:13] The data wizard named Abe who built their ballot system over a weekend [00:12:22] The rule Collin teaches every candidate about talking to voters [00:14:13] Can you trust a pollster? The first thing to check [00:18:08] Why asking AI how people feel gives you the wrong answer [00:19:09] Actual data versus model data, and why a model gets his own wife wrong [00:22:20] The same question, worded two ways, and the swing that follows [00:25:19] Running on heart or running on polls, and how the best do both [00:27:23] Illinois ranked 46th in growth, and the crony capitalism behind it [00:41:43] The book that priced out every way to win a single vote [00:45:41] The three phases of a campaign and the method that fits each
Mentioned Resources Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout by Donald P. Green and Alan S. Gerber
About the Guest Collin Corbett is a political strategist and pollster with nearly two decades in politics and the founder of Cor Strategies, a political consulting firm based in Palatine, Illinois. He has recruited and trained more than 3,500 candidates and activists and helped hundreds of them reach the ballot. In 2026, he left the Republican Party and launched an independent campaign for governor of Illinois, running alongside Carolyn Schofield. 🔗 LinkedIn | Website
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Curious Data is an original production hosted by Bob Lytle. Brought to you by Centri Analytics. Production and editing by Podcast Your Brand.
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