Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Carney considers concessions to Trump as U.S. power wanes abroad
The Munk Debates PodcastShow Notes
What is the point of negotiating with Donald Trump when experience suggests that agreements may not be binding, concessions may not be reciprocal, and terms may not be honoured? Reports now suggest the Canadian government is preparing to make significant concessions, including allowing more American dairy into the Canadian market. But in this climate, and with this president, any Canadian concession should come with a concession of equal value from Washington. So what exactly is Ottawa’s strategy? Are its conflicting signals a deliberate effort at strategic ambiguity—or evidence that the government itself is divided? And how might Trump’s negotiating posture change if Republicans lose the U.S. midterms in November and he becomes a lame-duck president?
In the second half of the show, Rudyard and Andrew turn to the emerging Oman-Iran agreement over control of the Strait of Hormuz, asking whether it signals a retreat from freedom of navigation and another step in the decline of American power abroad. They argue that Trump fundamentally misunderstood the Iranian regime he was confronting and the retaliatory tools at its disposal. The result, they contend, is more than a strategic defeat: it is a humiliation for the United States.
Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
More from The Munk Debates Podcast
Rudyard and Andrew examine the social unrest sweeping across France. Andrew argues that while protest is deeply embedded in French political culture, the current wave of demonstrations is being fuelled by political opportunism, with the far left exploiting legitimate grievances to foment disorder. With President Macron deeply unpopular and his presidency increasingly weakened, the unrest risks benefiting Marine Le Pen, as the political centre struggles to hold.
Rudyard and Janice begin today’s show with Russia and Ukraine exchanging strikes following a brief, Trump-brokered energy ceasefire that lasted just 48 hours. Is Zelensky’s open defiance of Trump connected to Starlink being shut off in Ukraine and a series of Russian ballistic missile strikes launched without warning? The Trump administration appears to be ratcheting up pressure on Kyiv, punishing Ukraine while Putin faces few consequences for violating the president’s truce. Is Trump trying to weaken Zelensky and force him into concessions that would give Putin enough of a “win” to end the war? As devastating as the prospect of concessions may be, is ending this prolonged and deadly conflict ultimately the better outcome?
Andrew and Rudyard begin today’s show with Trump’s decision to waive sanctions on Russian diesel in an effort to bring down fuel prices ahead of the midterms. Trump is once again putting Putin’s interests ahead of Ukraine’s and showing his admiration for authoritarian leaders whom he wishes to emulate. The move risks bolstering Putin and increasing pressure on Ukraine, while Trump shifts blame for the war’s continuation and rising oil prices onto Zelensky and Kyiv — scapegoating Ukraine for a crisis of America’s own making.
Rudyard and Janice begin today’s show with Trump’s mixed messaging on Iran. While Trump has suggested that military action may be delayed until after the midterms, reports indicate that the U.S. military is preparing for potential strikes. With Trump’s statements increasingly difficult to take at face value, the focus shifts to more concrete signals, such as military deployments. Meanwhile, Iran’s economy is under mounting pressure, with oil exports halted and the economy in free fall. Having challenged Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. appears to have gained leverage, while Tehran shows signs of wanting a deal.
Rudyard and Andrew focus today’s show on the separatist movements gaining traction across Canada. Quebec voters appear poised to elect a separatist government, potentially setting the stage for another referendum in the coming years. What do we know about PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon? And how might Mark Carney’s popularity in Quebec affect Plamondon’s separatist ambitions?