Show Notes
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM’s sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions.
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