Show Notes
Everyone is screaming stagflation. Neil Woodford thinks they are wrong. In this episode, we walk through four structural deflationary forces — in goods, services, energy and labour — that were pushing prices down before the Iran war and have not been reversed by it. Plus: what it means for your mortgage, gilts and savings, and our update on the Iran war scenarios.
More from Noise Cancelling with Neil Woodford
Does the UK need £35bn of tax rises at the 2026 Budget? The IFS Green Budget says Chancellor John Healey is £35bn short ahead of his first Budget on 28 October. Neil Woodford says the number rests on an interest rate nobody actually forecasts.
Stamp duty on a typical UK house move has roughly doubled in 20 years without a single rate rise, and the number of homeowners moving house with a mortgage has more than halved.
UK gilt yields fell on the day Britain found out it had borrowed £3.5bn more than planned. So what is really setting the cost of UK government borrowing?
Will AI take your job? Anthropic’s economic scenarios model says AI could make the US economy 30% bigger by 2030 and put 1 in 5 knowledge workers out of work. Neil Woodford runs the model live and shows who gets the money when AI does the work.
UK inflation is falling while oil is up 35% and gilt yields are at an 18-year high. Neil Woodford explains why the 4-5% inflation forecasts are wrong again, what is actually in the CPI basket, and why the bond market may be pricing the wrong story.