The Sharp Bettor From Netflix's New Documentary Tells All | Presented by ProphetX
Circles Off - Sports Betting PodcastsShow Notes
Isaac Rose-Berman was one of the featured sharp bettors in Netflix's new documentary, Instadocs: The Prediction Games — and he's here to break down everything that happened behind the scenes.
In this conversation, Isaac details how he got connected to the production, what he was originally told the documentary would focus on, and how ten hours of filming got condensed into just a few minutes of screen time. He addresses the backlash to the Winnable meetup segment and whether those bettors were ever actually winning, breaks down a moment of what he calls "slightly deceptive editing" involving his own trading numbers, and gives his honest take on the framing of the "ideal counterparty" cut to a 19-year-old struggling bettor.
Isaac also shares his thoughts on the overall tone of the documentary, why he felt it lacked a strong defense of prediction markets, what he wishes had made the final cut, and what he hopes viewers ultimately take away from watching it.
Jacob Gramegna hosts this conversation on Circles Off, covering the World Cup trading scenes, the fee structure discussions that got cut, market maker vs. taker dynamics, and Isaac's honest assessment of whether this documentary is a fair introduction to prediction markets.
🟢 Sponsored by ProphetX, America's #1 Sports Prediction Market. Sign up with promo code CIRCLESOFF — Trade $10, get $20: https://www.prophetx.co/
📅 New episodes of Circle Back LIVE every Monday at 1 pm ET and Thursday at 4 pm ET. Plus, watch for additional content every Wednesday, ranging from interviews with industry experts to instructional videos!
🔵 Scale with Betstamp PRO → https://bit.ly/3QIPbFW
LINKS
🎮 Join The Hammer's Discord: https://discord.gg/hammer
✉️ Sign up for our newsletter: https://kirknewsletter.thehammer.bet/
🔨 The Hammer Betting Network: https://thehammer.bet/
SOCIALS
🔵 Circles Off on Twitter - https://x.com/CirclesOffHQ
⬛️ Circles Off on TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@circlesoffhq
🟪 Circles Off on Insta - https://www.instagram.com/circlesoffhq/
FOLLOW
🔵 Follow Isaac - https://x.com/roundrobin42
🔵 Follow Jacob - https://x.com/jacob_gramegna
OUR OTHER CHANNELS
🔨 https://www.youtube.com/@TheHammerHQ
🏈 https://www.youtube.com/@FwdProgressHQ
📚 https://www.youtube.com/@HitTheBooksHQ
SHOW INDEX
0:00 - Introduction
0:47 - The Filming Experience
3:06 - The Early Sentiment
6:32 - The Final Product
11:59 - What Was Missing From The Final Product?
16:41 - The Trailer Backlash
20:12 - Reactions To The Full Release
27:35 - Dissecting Specific Moments
41:18 - The Product Overall
46:01 - What's Next?
Circles Off podcast is an entertainment podcast. The opinions expressed in the podcast are for the purpose of discussion in the area of sports betting, online gaming and other like markets. Circles Off podcast does not condone unlawful or illegal activity, and if you are unsure of the laws in your jurisdiction surrounding these markets, please seek the appropriate legal advice about strategies that you intend to implement. Please gamble responsibly.
#PredictionMarkets #NetflixDocumentary #SportsBetting #TradingMarkets #CirclesOff Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More from Circles Off - Sports Betting Podcasts
Most same game parlays lose because bettors stack two good legs that have nothing to do with each other. In this episode of Legendary Loopholes, full time NBA bettor Calvin breaks down the same game parlay that paid +4000 when some sportsbooks priced a rookie center's blocks and double double as if they were unrelated, and shows how to find correlation the market hasn't accounted for.
A Grandissimo entry worth an estimated $513,333 never got its Week 6 pick in, and the player says his proxy forgot to submit it. That left 14 entries chasing the $7.7 million winner-take-all prize, and then the Rams lost to the Cardinals and the Colts fell to the Titans, wiping out more than half of the Survivor field. Over 1,600 of 2,908 entries were gone in a single Sunday.
How does a professional NBA bettor get ready for opening week? Pips NBA breaks down how he gathers information from the 30 teams in 30 days series and preseason film, turns it into minutes and rotation projections, and focuses on the teams that changed the most, where he thinks sportsbooks are most likely to be wrong early in the season. He also explains how matchups, defensive schemes and coverage types help him find mispriced player props, walks through correlated same game parlay reads, and covers how AI cuts his research time. Plus, how he reacts when a line moves against him, why he thinks top-down betting is drying up and pushing people toward originating, and answers to your mailbag questions on a long shot future, balancing life with the NBA grind, and how he reads questionable tags.
Beating the closing line is the best long-run sign you're betting well, but a lot of what gets called CLV isn't, and even great numbers lose all the time. I used years of NFL and college football line data to show what CLV actually measures, whether the market really gets sharper as kickoff gets closer, and whether you should fade or follow big line moves.
Everyone says AI can help you win at sports betting, but there's a right way and a wrong way to use it. We cover why more context beats a better prompt, why you should always check the steps behind an answer, and how to test a betting idea before you risk anything. Plus, the NFL's latest push on prediction markets at the Supreme Court, viewer questions from our most-watched AI video, and this week's plus EV moves.