Bob Moriarty: We’ll Be ‘Lucky’ If Oil Doesn’t Go To $400 – The Biggest Economic Disaster in History

Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context and host of the Oil Ground Up podcast, joins Palisades Gold Radio to dissect the current energy crisis. He argues that while the market has avoided outright shortages in the West, the war has created a “balkanized” global oil market. The primary issue is not just crude supply, but a severe crisis in refining capacity, particularly for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel. Diesel crack spreads have hit unprecedented levels (near $100-$120 a barrel), driven by a combination of the Iran war, Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure. This has led to a million to 1.5 million barrels per day loss in diesel supply, with emerging markets like Indonesia feeling the pain of outright shortages first.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Trader Ferg to the show. Trader Ferg is a Full-time Trader and is the Author of the Trader Ferg Substack. The discussion opens with a vivid illustration of emerging fuel shortages, as Trader Ferg shares images of long queues at his local petrol station in Bali, a symptom of diesel and product tightness spreading across Asia. He argues that governments avoid admitting scarcity, instead running down strategic reserves, but this dynamic sets the stage for a prolonged “big refill” cycle that will keep crude and refined products tight for years. He cautions that markets are complacently expecting a quick resolution, while the reality points to sustained supply constraints.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Jeff Phillips to the show. Jeff Phillips is a Private Investor and President of Global Market Development. Jeff Phillips sees the current pullback in precious metals and junior miners as a buying opportunity within a longer-term commodity super cycle driven by underinvestment, supply chain concerns, and inflationary currency debasement. He cautions that short-term timing remains uncertain, so maintaining cash and avoiding overleverage is essential. Phillips focuses on junior exploration and development companies, typically entering at $5 to $40 million market caps, and stresses that management quality and share structure matter more than geology alone. He looks for experienced teams with significant insider ownership and long-term shareholders rather than warrant flippers.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes David Hunter to the show. David Hunter is Chief Macro Strategist with Contrarian Macro Advisors. Hunter presents a deeply contrarian outlook, arguing that the extreme bearishness in the bond market signals a major bottom in bonds and a top in interest rates, particularly the 10-year Treasury. He believes the current narrative of an inescapable fiscal trap and higher rates is already priced in, and he expects oil prices to roll over into the $60 range, contributing to a downside surprise in inflation as the economy slows.

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Tavi Costa to the show. Tavi Costa is Founder & CEO of Azuria Capital LLC. Costa argues that the U.S. is approaching a fiscal breaking point, emphasizing that current bond yields are unsustainable when measured against record debt levels. He notes that with over a quarter of U.S. debt rolling over in the next twelve months at higher rates, the situation is becoming increasingly asymmetric. He predicts eventual intervention through yield curve control or other mechanisms to suppress yields and weaken the dollar, which would benefit hard assets, mining, and emerging markets.