Show Notes
Today, we covered the breaking news of Iran's possible overture on opening the Hormuz Strait, followed by a breakdown of the market's strong risk-on reaction to news of strong demand for Meta's Muse personal AI assistant app, especially the cluster of stocks that rallied the most on the news. Elsewhere, a look at the state of play in FX and interest rates, geopolitical news flow and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links
Some color on the Meta-Amazon dispute, but you can do better if you want to understand the nature of the issue with an AI prompt like "How best to understand the nature of the Amazon-Meta dispute regarding the blocking of the Muse app and what is at stake in the big picture for the two companies that lies adjacent to this issue." Wired magazine says that Meta's Muse is better at surveilling than at helping. Sounds about right if you use the Charlie Munger maxim "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome." Just remember, for Meta, you are the product. A writer who uses AI for some writing tasks but not for most writing says that you should be very careful before allowing AI to write for you, which can turn people away from wanting to every wanting to read what you write again. (HT FTAlphaville.) Did the "last veil of Bank of England independence" just drop last Thursday? PML Macro thinks so. (HT FTAlphaville.) Taleb acolyte Spitznagel argues (once again) that we are in for one big burst higher before an absolutely massive wipeout. The important thing is to be prepared for either scenario. The German political situation is getting fraught, as covered by Eurointelligence.com (see September 18 post on "Goodbye CDU" - their posts not associated with specific URLs - there was an earlier post about France "A messy turn for the French presidential race" as well.
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