Rise Above The Numbers

Turn Forecasting Mistakes Into Opportunities

Rise Above The Numbers

Show Notes

"Rise Above The Numbers" by FP&HEY Do you dread forecasting because you’re never 100% right? We’ve done hundreds of revenue and profit forecasts. And guess what? Every single one of them was wrong—and that’s ok when handled properly. Although it is a huge mental hurdle to get over. We’ll talk about one of our biggest forecasting fails. Double-counting a revenue figure in a public company’s internal profit forecast. Tune in to find out how we made the mistake, how we communicated the mistake to leadership, and how we handled it which drove revenue results higher (seriously). Show Notes * 00:18 - We aint perfect in FP&A—let’s talk about epic forecast fails * 00:42 - Forecasting fails are a right of passage in FP&A * 01:28 - Holy smokes, Drew messed up a public company’s forecast 🙈 * 02:59 - Great monthly forecasting processes help catch and mitigate mistakes * 03:45 - Making mistakes is stressful—respond by taking action * 04:50 - You learn who people are when their backs are against the wall * 06:30 - The reality is, numbers will be a measure of your FP&A job success * 07:53 - Forecasting is about the realm of possibility—not perfection * 08:44 - Drive operational finance—help your business partners make decisions * 10:15 - FP&A is about driving decisions to help your company achieve its goals Know Why the Mistake Happened Making mistakes is ok. Try not to make the same mistake twice. Our revenue forecast mistake happened because two people counted the same product in their own stand-alone forecast. The fix? Each month audit what products each forecaster owns, ensure ZERO double counts. 🔥TIP: Speaking of products, use that product data to do whitespace analysis. Hustle to Communicate and Create a Plan Knowing why a mistake happened and ensuring it doesn’t happen again is a good start. But what can you do about it now to help the company still achieve its goals? Go on defense by managing expenses to help profit and cash flow hit desired levels. Or go on offense and see what untapped revenue opportunities exist (like we did). Either way, try to have a contingency plan in place when you communicate your forecast mistake. Manage Future Mistakes the Same Way We aren’t perfect. Things you can’t predict will come up. And mistakes will inevitably be made. Focus on having a: ✔️ Framework ✔️ Team ✔️ Process To help keep financial and nonfinancial KPIs (and metrics) organized throughout your forecasting journey. That will help you maintain focus not on accuracy, but the realm of what’s possible. And give your leadership and key stakeholders confidence that you will help them navigate their financial performance with financial rigor in place. Conclusion: Keep Learning You will grow from your successes and failures. The trick is to keep learning—every day. Knowledge is power. Resources ▪️ Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fpandhey ▪️ Email us your burning FP&A questions at info [at] fpandhey.com This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpandhey.substack.com

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpandhey.substack.com

More from Rise Above The Numbers

Jun 6, 2025

"Rise Above The Numbers" by FP&HEY Stories tell how a business performed in the past and the future. These stories can be fun to tell (crush revenue, generate more cash, hire like crazy). Or not so fun to tell (missing budget by a lot, making cuts, no end in sight). Regardless of the story’s outcome, you can help your business tell AND influence it 🫵 By connecting the story to everyday operations where the doers live. Show Notes * 01:30 – AI is powerful when you have good thinking frameworks in place * 00:55 – Shout out to quality and practical FP&A content * 01:35 – IR (aka Investor Relations) is the story of your business Shout out to Secret CFO post on IR and operations, keep the great content coming * 02:35 – Talk is cheap, get your hands dirty in the operations, and help improve them * 04:25 – Your business’s story should be about what it does today, and what it wants to do in the future * 05:30 – Customer counts, customer segmentation—all metrics that help you manage your business 🔥TIP: Here’s how to analyze customers * 06:25 – We respectfully disagree with Secret CFO’s take on IR; the (IR) story helps enable operational improvement * 08:20 – Stories provide clarity, especially when numbers (aka metrics) support it 🔥Tip: Here’s how to create KPIs (and metrics) * 09:52 – Do investor relations reports matter? Heck ya they do—especially the transcript * 11:05 – Learn from the best business communicators, like Warren Buffett (hint: he always keeps messaging insanely simple and created a not-so-small company in the process) Check out Warren Buffett’s insanely simple shareholder letters on an insanely simple website * 13:01 – Big finish—keep writing great content Secret CFO, it’s interesting and practical 👊 Conclusion: Tell a story everyone can relate to Figure out what your company’s goals are. Put numbers to them (revenue, profit, cash). Drill one level down to find a number that teams can relate to. And tell a simple story connecting what teams do to the ultimate goal. A practical way to do this is during your budget process (DO NOT leave operational groups out of this exercise). That’s storytelling that drives future business results. Go IR 👊 Resources ▪️ Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fpandhey ▪️ Email us your burning FP&A questions at info [at] fpandhey.com This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpandhey.substack.com Disclaimer: This content is not investment advice or financial advice. The views expressed and stories told are our own. We may be investors in the companies discussed. Do your due diligence when considering applying what you learn.

May 2, 2025

"Rise Above The Numbers" by FP&HEY AI is something everyone talks about. But it isn’t something everyone uses…yet. There was a time when no one used computers. There was a time when no one used the internet. There was a time when Excel only had ~65k rows per tab. And years from now, you’ll be saying there was a time when no one used AI. Start using it, listen up to hear how. Show Notes * 00:40 – heard of AI? You will after this podcast Here’s an article we wrote for CFO Dive on AI back in 2023 * 01:30 – AI is powerful when you have good thinking frameworks in place Check out this LinkedIn post on practical AI in FP&A from prior podcast guest Carl * 02:40 – AI can make your life easier (personally and professionally) * 04:35 – FP&A’s job is to think, use AI to brainstorm and ideate more effectively * 05:10 – learn how to present financial information, then leverage AI to speed up that process * 07:00 – AI can help you get people’s attention, then drive home a clear point, saving you from back-and-forth debates * 08:45 – information is only as good as the actions it helps people take 💪 * 09:30 – researching new job responsibilities now requires asking people, searching the internet, and asking AI * 10:35 – the internet and search sped up our ability to learn vs going to the library, AI can speed up internet search * 12:40 – question everything, challenge processes, and be curious… that’s the best way to crush FP&A—and AI can help you figure out what questions to ask 🔥TIP: Here’s how to crush your first 6 months in FP&A. * 14:05 – AI can even give Valentine’s Day advice—proceed with caution on that one Resources ▪️ Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fpandhey ▪️ Email us your burning FP&A questions at info [at] fpandhey.com This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpandhey.substack.com

Apr 4, 2025

"Rise Above The Numbers" by FP&HEY Who here likes to fail? No, this isn’t an April Fool’s joke. Failing leads to serious learning. It can also lead to serious reputation hits. And not just for you, but your team too. Fail responsibly, by failing small and setting you and your team up for controlled failure. Show Notes * 00:26 – doing bicep curls while recording a podcast is one way to stay in shape * 01:01 – controlled failure = allowing your team to take risks and fail while minimizing the consequences * 02:20 – new hires will fail a lot—help them do that while helping them grow a positive reputation * 03:45 – create a space that feels like the big game—there’s no experience like game day experience * 04:50 – don’t expect people to hit the ground running—make it your mission to improve their chances of success * 05:45 – bridge new analysis with old analysis to help you and your boss understand what changed and why it changed to get buy-in * 07:50 – confidence compounds over time—make it your mission to instill confidence in your team early and often * 09:15 – great football players (even Tom Brady) need teams to succeed—you as an FP&A leader are no different * 09:55 – invest in leveling up your team and retaining top talent * 10:30 – great ideas are out there to do things better—pay attention and ferociously learn about them * 11:15 – challenge yourself to learn one new thing each day—that learning will compound over time * 11:55 – wrapping things up—practice controlled failure to build skills, build confidence, build high-performing teams that consistently improve Resources ▪️ Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fpandhey ▪️ Email us your burning FP&A questions at info [at] fpandhey.com This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpandhey.substack.com Disclaimer: This content is not investment advice or financial advice. The views expressed and stories told are our own. We may be investors in the companies discussed. Do your due diligence when considering applying what you learn.

Feb 28, 2025

👋Hey there, Thousands of people read this newsletter and listen to this podcast. Some work in FP&A for the biggest companies in the world. And some are the only Finance, Accounting, HR, and Legal person at their small company (so many hats to wear) 🎩 So what’s better, working for big or small companies? Our insanely vague answer is…it depends. Each job presents unique learning and networking opportunities. And the order in which you take them in your career doesn’t matter either. This episode is about our experience working at the biggest companies in the world. AND some of the smallest companies in the world. Listen on * Apple * Spotify * Substack Experience Comes in All Shapes and Sizes Big, small, public, private, well-known, and completely under the radar. These words best describe all the companies we’ve worked for and with. There was no perfect size or type of experience. Each company offered unique learnings that set us up for the next thing. Here’s the order we went in and what we learned along the way. Show Notes * 00:30 – all it takes is a blow-up swimming pool to make kids (and adults) happy * 00:55 – FP&A can be a very different animal in large vs small companies * 02:00 – starting at large companies, like GE or P&G, gives you role rotation options 🔥TIP: read this to learn why role rotation can be a career accelerator * 02:40 – journal entries help you understand business drivers, which help you drive results * 04:15 – large and mid-size companies offer business partner roles (think Sales, Marketing, R&D, Operations) * 04:55 – FP&A is planning for the future while understanding today and using the past as a history lesson * 05:50 – the smaller the company, the bigger the scope of work * 07:01 – small company CFOs have to make decisions that can make or break their company every day * 09:30 – small businesses require focus – and cash is most important because it pays the bills * 09:55 – doing an IPO and working in larger companies can grow your network exponentially * 10:55 – like we always say, jump on sales calls to learn about your business * 12:20 – advice we received early in our career—walk the production floor * 13:20 – the big finish—no one career path is the same, so keep learning and do what fits your life situation We Started at Very Big Companies GE (General Electric) and P&G (Procter and Gamble) are giant companies. The odds are that you use many of their products daily. Big companies did something for both of us early in our careers that accelerated our learning and promotional track. Role rotation. Role rotation required us to take a job for a year and then take a different job the next. Each job had a very specific scope. For example: * Start as a Plant Accounting Co-op/Intern * Transition to systems implementation project team * Then become the Regional Profit Forecaster of a brand * And finally, become a Global Profit Forecaster, forecasting a collection of brands All of the above in 6 years. We’re exhausted just thinking back to those years. We worked long hours and connected with a lot of people. Which eventually helped us leave our big company jobs and test out the mid-size company waters. Then Dove into Mid-Size Companies Mid-size companies offer a bit more variety when it comes to scope. Our experience was with fast-growing companies that were hiring rapidly. What’s the most important thing we offered when we splashed down at our cube for the first time? Connecting financial results to everyday business activities. Without that connection, financial performance becomes disconnected from the goals of the company. And all that hiring and spending can start to drift away from achieving the actual goals of the company. This is where business partnering roles come into play. Consider them mini-CFOs who own: * Collecting info * Understanding what it means * And providing recommendations All to ensure the goals of the company are achieved. The skill set to be a business partner is clear communication

Jan 10, 2025

"Rise Above The Numbers" by FP&HEY How much free time do you have? Many have little if any. That’s why focusing on saving time now is so important. 🔥TIP: Excel shortcuts will save you hours each week. Because at some point an opportunity will present itself. It may look like someone: * Leaving the company unexpectedly and you fill that gap * Being promoted and you take on their job * Asking for help and you step in to support All of the above has happened to us. And many of these opportunities were unplanned. Show Notes * 00:30 – doing other people’s jobs will happen, it will be unplanned, and you can get through it * 01:11 – only take on the challenge if you can handle it – assess your situation * 01:45 – we’ve gone from solo contributor to doing the jobs of 5 people * 03:30 – you’re only as good as your team and support structure – plan and communicate your approach * 04:35 – the silver lining of people leaving – you learn💡 * 05:00 – the growth mindset helps to get through taking on more than your original scope of work * 06:10 – stepping up to take on more can lead to future opportunities like working with leadership * 06:50 – sometimes your manager will leave and the opportunity to lead is in front of you 🔥TIP: Here’s how to crush your first 6 months as an FP&A manager. * 08:25 – you will get beat up and you will experience failure – all lead to learnings * 10:10 – stepping up and taking on more may or may not make sense depending on what your goals are Conclusion: Opportunities Make or Break Your Reputation You will get opportunities in your career. How you take them on will feed your reputation. Reputation takes a lifetime to build up. And as you build your reputation, the number of opportunities you get goes up📈 Become an opportunity magnet, and over time be selective in the ones you take on. Resources ▪️ Follow us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/fpandhey ▪️ Email us your burning FP&A questions at info [at] fpandhey.com This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpandhey.substack.com

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