Jim Paulsen on the Weakening Economy, Tech Bear Market Risk and the Bull Market Built on Fear

Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth explores why experienced investors build very different portfolios—and what that means for your own money. In How I Invest My Money Volume Two, 25 new contributors explain how they invest their personal wealth. Brian joins Matt Zeigler to discuss what those stories reveal about the gap between an optimal portfolio on paper and one you can actually live with. From large cash reserves and paid-off mortgages to investments in their own businesses, their choices reflect family needs, career risk, and priorities that a model can struggle to capture. The conversation also explores why low-cost index funds don't settle every investing question, how financial professionals think about bonds and alternatives, and what it means to compound relationships, knowledge, and opportunities alongside money. How I Invest My Money Volume Two: https://link.amazon/B0aVpNlfS Topics covered: Why knowing how markets work doesn't produce one right portfolio for everyone What Ben Hunt and other contributors reveal about investing beyond a brokerage account Connecting personal goals to asset allocation and risk tolerance Why business ownership and household needs change the role of stocks and bonds Why financial professionals may deliberately hold substantial cash reserves The difference between spreadsheet optimization and a portfolio you can stick with Paying off a mortgage, feeling secure, and accepting the opportunity cost The complexity and illiquidity that can come with alternative investments Matt Zeigler's approach to compounding human, intellectual, social, and financial capital Brian Portnoy's experience editing the book with his son Zach and sharing opportunities across generations Chapters: 00:00 How finance professionals invest their own money 05:35 Why investing extends beyond index funds 12:20 Connecting financial goals to portfolio choices 18:32 Why investors choose different stock and bond allocations 25:05 Cash reserves, career risk, and peace of mind 34:55 Paying off a mortgage: security versus opportunity cost 40:11 Alternatives, complexity, and the investment industry 44:40 Matt Zeigler on investing in more than money 52:22 Brian Portnoy on family, opportunity, and working with his son Shaping Wealth: https://www.shapingwealth.com Follow Brian Portnoy on X: https://x.com/bportnoy_ Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates and chairman of Syzygy Asset Management, examines S&P 500 concentration and who could benefit most from AI. Owning today’s market leaders is not necessarily the same as owning tomorrow’s biggest investment winners. Subscribe on Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe on Apple In this episode of The Intangible Economy, Rob joins Kai Wu to explore how index construction shapes what investors own, why index additions can create hidden costs, and why he would consider buying a richly valued IPO before index funds have to buy it. The conversation also covers AI’s shift toward capital-intensive business models, GPU depreciation, intangible assets, and the importance of testing investment ideas rather than chasing impressive backtests. Topics covered: Why Rob Arnott sees a real AI revolution alongside risks in the prices of its leading stocks How AI customers could capture value beyond the infrastructure builders Valuation changes versus fundamental growth in large and smaller companies Tesla, SpaceX, and the price pressures surrounding index inclusion Hidden implementation costs that do not appear in an index fund’s expense ratio Selecting index members by business size rather than market value AI financing, customer economics, and the risk of rapid hardware obsolescence R&D, intangible assets, and what conventional book value can miss Competitive moats, leadership, and creating value for customers Using AI in research while resisting overfitting and performance chasing Research discussed: ⁠The Active Side of Indexing⁠ ⁠Fundamental Growth⁠ Learn more about ⁠Syzygy Asset Management⁠. Timestamps: 00:00 Rob Arnott on index concentration and AI’s future winners 12:13 What S&P 500 investors own and pay for 20:35 Why Rob Arnott would buy before index inclusion 25:41 Hidden index costs and fundamental membership rules30:37 Passive investing’s embedded decisions 36:40 Big Tech’s shift from asset light to capital intensive 42:41 GPU depreciation and economic obsolescence 47:03 R&D, intangible assets, and value investing 51:04 How durable are competitive moats? 59:01 Using AI in business and investment research 01:05:11 Performance chasing and the backtest trap Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:⁠excessreturns.co⁠ No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Paisley Nardini of Tema ETFs explores AI investing, S&P 500 concentration, and how to build a portfolio around changing market risks. How can investors participate in powerful growth trends without making every holding a bet on the same outcome? In this episode of Excess Returns, Paisley joins Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau to discuss the risks beneath a resilient stock market, why tomorrow’s AI winners may differ from today’s leaders, and where she sees opportunities in power and infrastructure. They also explore private-company exposure inside ETFs, the role of thematic funds alongside a passive core, and why knowing what you own matters more than the number of holdings in your portfolio. Topics covered: What weak market breadth reveals beneath the headline indexes Interest rates, midterm elections, and the limits of historical market patterns Prediction markets as a source of information for investors AI earnings expectations, debt financing, and the risk of slowing growth Why bonds can provide income without reliably offsetting equity risk Small-cap profitability and the importance of quality screens AI bottlenecks, photonics, power demand, and infrastructure investment Private-company exposure in ETFs: liquidity, fees, and investment rationale Using thematic strategies as satellite positions around a passive core Portfolio concentration, investment humility, and staying flexible Learn more about Tema ETFs. Follow Paisley Nardini on X. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and the risks beneath the market 04:37 Higher rates and the midterm election outlook 09:17 What investors can learn from prediction markets 13:36 AI growth expectations and changing market leadership 19:50 Portfolio risk, bonds, and faster market drawdowns 26:09 The AI bubble debate and small-cap quality 33:45 Who benefits from AI beyond the hyperscalers? 39:29 Energy infrastructure and putting AI to work 45:54 Private-company exposure inside ETFs 52:01 Where thematic investing fits in a portfolio 58:32 Commodities, S&P 500 concentration, and humility Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

Colin McQueen of T. Rowe Price explains what is changing for international value stocks and how he separates cheap businesses from opportunities that can improve. Higher interest rates, industrial investment, and corporate reform are reshaping the opportunity set, but his process still starts with free cash flow and the price investors pay for it. Colin joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to discuss his evolution from deep value investing to a broader approach that includes quality businesses and restructuring opportunities. We explore why value struggled in the 2010s, what has changed outside the US, and how he uses valuation signals and diversification to manage risk. The conversation also covers AI suppliers and disruption, governance changes in Japan and Korea, opportunities and risks in China, and the case for financial stocks. Colin shares examples involving Samsung, Hitachi, and Rolls-Royce, along with his experiments using AI to challenge investment theses and recognize when conviction has become stubbornness. Topics covered: The lessons Colin McQueen learned from deep value, quality investing, and a difficult decade for value How higher rates and spending on infrastructure, defense, and power can change the opportunity set AI supply-chain opportunities and the uncertainty around future winners and losers Valuing tangible and intangible businesses through normalized free cash flow Using AI as an alternative voice when deciding whether an investment thesis is broken The US-international valuation gap, earnings growth, and diversification beyond tech Japan's corporate reforms, Korea's value-up effort, and the importance of what is already priced in China's contrarian appeal and the governance risks that accompany it How restructuring, management changes, and better capital allocation can unlock value Building a diversified portfolio and looking beyond quarterly earnings and market narratives

Jim Paulsen sees a risk of a stock market correction as financial conditions tighten and investors grow comfortable with tech's long run of leadership. But his warning does not require a recession or the end of the bull market. In this month's Jim Paulsen Show, Jim joins Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand to walk through the charts behind his cautious outlook. He explains how rising yields, oil prices, and a firmer dollar can affect the economy with a lag, why favorable seasonality may offer less support than investors expect, and how a slowdown in technology spending could challenge market leadership. We also explore the signals Jim sees in retail, housing, employment, and Walmart's relative performance. He closes with a possible path through a correction: slowing growth, lower inflation and yields, and a recovery that could give the bull market another run. His seven lagging sectors, the "Modest Seven," are central to that case. Topics covered: Why Jim Paulsen is cautious without making a recession or full bear-market call His financial-conditions gauge and the risks of tightening into an already pressured economy How restrictive conditions can weaken the November-to-April seasonal advantage The delayed effects of bond yields, oil prices, and the dollar on economic surprises Technology spending relative to GDP and why slower growth could matter for tech stocks AI adoption, pricing, and the challenge of turning investment into profits How two decades of tech leadership may encourage complacency and crowded positioning The divide between AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the "Modest Seven" What sector performance, bond yields, and the Walmart Recession Signal suggest about growth Why rate cuts may initially accompany falling stocks, and how a correction could set up another advance Follow Jim Paulsen: Paulsen Perspectives Jim Paulsen on X Timestamps: 00:00 Jim Paulsen's outlook: correction risk without a bear-market call 07:41 Restrictive conditions and the seasonal buying period 14:12 Why the Fed and investors interpret conditions differently 20:28 Oil, yields, the dollar, and their lagged effects 26:00 Technology spending relative to the economy 30:18 Can AI break the historical pattern? 35:00 Tech's long leadership cycle and investor complacency 42:00 AI, inflation-assisted sectors, and the Modest Seven 47:06 Market signals ahead of economic reports and bond pressure 53:00 Bond competition and the Walmart Recession Signal 58:11 How a correction could lead to another bull-market run Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.