Ep. 026 - PJM's $12B Modeling Mistake Is Hitting Ratepayers Again (Datacenter, Energy) | Robert Boswall, Jordan Nanos
SemiAnalysis WeeklyShow Notes
PJM overpaid $12 billion across two capacity auctions, and the same modeling error is set to repeat in an upcoming emergency auction. Robert Boswall (@RobertBoswall) and Jordan Nanos (@JordanNanos) break down how the largest grid in America, 13 states and 66 million people, inflates demand while constraining supply. The result is scarcity pricing that ratepayers absorb, not the data centers driving the narrative. Of the $63 billion spent across four auctions, Boswell estimates $12 billion was avoidable, split $7 billion and $5 billion across the 2025-26 and 2026-27 auctions. This is the mechanics behind every headline blaming AI for rising power bills.
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0:00 Cold Open1:33 What Is PJM3:13 Capacity Auctions7:39 The $12 Billion12:33 How Plants Get Paid15:15 The Winterization Gap21:17 Data Center Demand26:41 The Emergency Auction30:00 Board Overrules Members40:32 Turning It Around
Article: https://open.substack.com/pub/semianalysis/p/12b-of-us-ratepayers-money-wasted
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