Summary
Polling data from the ongoing election campaign reveals significant discrepancies, leading to skepticism about their accuracy. An interview on Radio New Zealand highlights the confusion surrounding the polling methodologies, suggesting that a reevaluation of polling practices may be necessary as the election approaches. Despite the questionable polls, voter turnout appears strong, with over 309,000 individuals casting their ballots early, indicating a well-informed electorate.
The current political landscape is characterized as a "small policy election," with parties like Labour and New Zealand First adopting cautious approaches to avoid appearing radical. Labour's controversial "rent to buy" policy has drawn criticism, as it raises concerns about fairness for those in similar housing situations who may not benefit from the initiative. As the campaign nears its conclusion, the focus shifts to the effectiveness of policies and the potential for voter engagement in a climate of diminishing returns.
Show Notes
So, the winner in week... what is it, five or six? The winner in week five of the election campaign was the polls. Not the pollsters. The polls. They were far from winners. The spread, the margin of error in some, is now so absurd they're writing articles about it. Ironically, I listened to an interview on Radio NZ as they tried to explain it. Small clue: they couldn't. They couldn't explain why their polls didn't bear any real resemblance to any of the other polls. There was a debate a number of years ago that polls should be banned a few weeks out from a vote. Given the variance in methodology these days, I reckon that's probably not a bad idea. But the polls I mean are the polling booths. I have voted. I voted on day one. And, as it turns out, a lot of people did. And that is a good sign. In part, it's a sign that a lot of us knew what we were voting for and had done for a while. In essence, the campaign makes zero difference. And the irony of course, is that once you can vote, and you do, the campaign is chasing ever-diminishing returns. And that is sort of what it feels like. This is a small-policy election. With the exception of the Greens, of course. But it's a rats-and-mice election. Labour have contained themselves, so they don't look radical. ACT are the personification of contained. NZ First do a bit of Māorification stuff and talk about trains. But given the state of the books, no one in their right mind has gone out with a cheque book and gone to town, for very obvious reasons. Except the Greens, of course, who will see none of their big-ticket policies ever see the light of day. Oh, and we aren't buying the BNZ. The most controversial policy, if feedback is anything to go by, has been Labour's rent-to-buy scheme. The state gives you money in your state house, then takes taxpayers' money and puts it aside and one day calls it a deposit so you can buy it. Meanwhile, someone in the same circumstances doesn't get a house, or a deposit, or anything. Cool policy. You didn't like it. So, good week for most. No one blew it. The gang fiasco faded. And I'm still picking Opportunity not to make it. One week to go. Thank the good Lord. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
More from Election 2026
Former Prime Minister Sir John Key is repeating a call not to engage in strategic voting, saying it's "not a smart idea" to split the vote. He told Mike Hosking the centre-right political party, the biggest party in the parliament, needs to have a strong core. "If you eat away at that and you say, 'okay, well, I'll give my party vote somewhere else', then then you put Labour right in the box seat to be the first party that can form a government." Sir John released a video earlier this morning urging people to vote and told Hosking he wasn't worried, but it was a very tight race. "If people don't vote, you know, I would worry that they would wake up on November the 8th and have buyer's remorse," he said. Sir John suggested voters were lethargic as the campaign had lacked "drama" compared to some elections he had been involved in. "People just go, 'oh, I'm bored with all this, I just won't vote'. But the consequences of a change of government are very, very significant." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
The short week has come to a close, which means it's time for Kate Hawkesby and Tim Wilson to help Mike Hosking Wrap the Week that Was. They unpack how the election campaign has gone with just one more week until the big day and discuss the new programme the Ministry of Education is rolling out for gifted kids before Mike starts telling slanderous lies about his producer. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
National has dropped below 25 percent in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll, and it's sparked concerns among the party. Leader Chris Luxon broke his own rule and warned voters to not let this poll become a reality - and urged National faithful to get out and vote. The party's campaign chair, Simeon Brown, says this result indicates the election will be a close one. "It's a very stark reminder to voters - if they want to avoid a Labour-Greens coalition with Chlöe Swarbrick as the finance minister, they need to get out there and vote." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
It's likely two people who claim they voted more than once - which is illegal - would have been caught out even if they hadn't bragged on social media. The Electoral Commission has referred these two people to police. Constitutional law expert Graeme Edgeler says alarms are raised if a voter's name is crossed off more than once. "Someone's gonna find out, and they're going to start making inquiries - a few people do it every election, and they tend to get caught." LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
National's Chris Luxon has spoken out about a poll result - breaking his usual rule. The latest RNZ-Reid Research poll shows National's support has fallen to 24.8 percent, putting the party below its 2020 election showing. Newstalk ZB senior political correspondent Barry Soper says this shows Luxon's worried, as he released a 'call to arms' to his voting base. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.