Show Notes
The objective function matters, and there are no perfect objectives. That is the message of the last two classes. Once you have absorbed that, I am willing to accept the fact that you still don't quite buy into the "maximize value" objective. That is fine and I would like you to keep thinking about a better alternative with three caveats. First, you cannot cop out and give me multiple objectives - I too would like to maximize stockholder wealth, maximize customer satisfaction, maximize social welfare and employee benefits at the same time but it is just not doable. Second, your objective function has to be measurable. In other words, if you define your objective as maximizing the social good, how would you measure social good? Third, take your objective (and the measurement device you have developed) and ask yourself a cynical question: How might managers game this system for maximum benefit, while hurting you as an owner? In the long term, you may almost guarantee that this will happen. In the last part of the class, I defined risk and started on what goes into a good risk and return model.Slides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/cfspr17/session4.pdfPost class test: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/postclass/session4test.pdfPost class test solution: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/postclass/session4soln.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
More from Aswath Damodaran
This is not a video that I expect most of you to not watch, for many reasons. First, it is insanely long (more than 3 hours), breaking almost every rule in the online video rulebook. Second, everything that I say in this video, I have said before either in my classes or individual posts. That said, you may still find it useful because it consolidates all the arguments against three ideas that I have seen marketed relentlessly as counters to conventional business first principles, and shows how these concepts connect to each other. 1. Sustainability: It is the business buzzword of the moment, with sustainability centers funded around the idea and classes with it in the title. While I understand the push for sustainable living and a planet, I find the notion of corporate sustainability nonsensical, since corporations are legal entities that should go away, when their reason for existence disappears. 2. Stakeholder Wealth Maximization: Should a well run business consider the needs and interests of the many stakeholders in it (lenders, employees, customers, society)? Of course, but the idea that you can maximize all of their competing interests is an idea that only a law school professor will think is a good one.3. ESG: No business acronym has ever acquired as large a following as this one, and I have written and talked about the multiple ways in which it can go wrong. My description of ESG as a concept born in sanctimony, nurtured in hypocrisy and sold with sophistry summarizes how I feel about it.I use "Theocratic" to bind these bad ideas together because they have marketed with religious fervor, and the Ayatollahs of the space have used virtue (or their definitions of it) as a defense against arguments. The buy in by consultants (McKinsey, are you listening), academics (who have provided cover and manufactured research to back it up), fund managers (with fiduciary responsibilities) has been astonishing. If you are an ESG advocate, or worse still, actually work in the space, I hope that you do get a chance to watch the session. It may infuriate you, and you may disagree with my arguments, but I don't think you will find it boring.Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/blog/TheoTrifecta.pdfPrevious blog posts:1. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2019/08/from-shareholder-wealth-to-stakeholder.html2. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/09/sounding-good-or-doing-good-skeptical.html3. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-esg-movement-goodness-gravy-train.html4. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2022/03/esgs-russia-test-moment-to-shine-or.html Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
(I apologize for the screen sharing snafu, which is about 12 minutes, between minutes 10 and 22 of the class, since you watch an awfully low res video of me in front of the classroom). In the session today, we started by doing a brief test on country risk premiums. We started with an assessment of historical equity risk premiums, and why they are not good predictors of future equity risk premiums, before embarking on a discussion of country risk and how to deal with it, and measure it. We also looked at company risk exposure to country risk, with my core argument being that a company’s exposure to country risk comes from where it dos business, not where it is incorporated:After a brief foray into lambda, a more composite way of measuring country risk, we spent the rest of the session talking about the dynamics of implied equity risk premiums and what makes them go up, down or stay unchanged. We then moved to cross market comparisons, first by comparing the ERP to bond default spreads, then bringing in real estate risk premiums and then extending the concept to comparing ERPs across countries. Finally, I made the argument that you should not stray too far from the current implied premium, when valuing individual companies, because doing so will make your end valuation a function of what you think about the market and the company. If you have strong views on the market being over valued or under valued, it is best to separate it from your company valuation. I am attaching the excel spreadsheet that I used to compute the implied ERP at the start of February 2023. Play with it when you get a chance. Post class test and solution attached. Until next time!Start of the class test: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/tests/ImplPrem.pdfERP for February 2023: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/implprem/ERPFeb23.xlsxSlides: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/valspr23/session5slides.pdfPost class test: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/postclass/session5Atest.pdfPost class test solution: https://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/postclass/session5Asoln.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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In this class we began by looking at the four rules that keep terminal value in check. We then looked at which model to use in valuing a company and then moved on to the loose ends in valuation, items we often pay little heed to or attach arbitrary premiums/discounts for. We began by looking at cash and whether it should command a premium at some companies (if they have a good track record and have restrictions on raising capital) and a discount at others (if investors don't trust you with the cash). We then looked at cross holdings in other companies and the numerous barriers to valuing them.Start of the class test: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/tests/termvalue.pdfSlides: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/valUGspr17/session11.pdfPost class test: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/postclass/session11atest.pdfPost class test solution: http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/postclass/session11asoln.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
We started this class by tying up the last loose ends with risk and return models, talking about how assuming that there are no transactions costs and private information can lead us all to hold the market portfolio, and how risk can be then measured as risk added to that portfolio. We did damn the CAPM with faint praise, arguing that it does not do very well at explaining differences in returns across companies, but that it does at least as well as the alternatives. We then started on the mechanics of the model, taking about risk free rates: how to estimate the risk free rate in a currency where there is no default free entity issuing bonds in that currency and why risk free rates vary across currencies. The key lesson is that much as we would like to believe that riskfree rates are set by banks, they come from fundamentals - growth and inflation. I have a post on risk free rates that you might find of use:http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2015/04/dealing-with-low-interest-rates.html In fact, risk free rates turned negative in a few currencies, upending what we know about risk free rates in. Here is my post on negative risk free rates.http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2016/03/negative-interest-rates-unreal.html In the final few minutes of the session, we turned to equity risk premiums and how they are related to risk aversion.Slides: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/podcasts/cfspr23/session6slides.pdfPost class test: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/postclass/session6atest.pdfPost class test solution: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/cfovhds/postclass/session6asoln.pdf Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices