Show Notes
Every crash I lived through started the same way:
A genuinely good idea captures the imagination, then it gets carried to an absurd extreme.
As Buffett put it, what the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end.
The names change but the pattern never does. Fear and greed, over and over.
So let me take you back to the last great top, because I had a front row seat:
I started shorting tech in the fourth quarter of 1999, and I was early enough that it hurt. Then in February 2000, the manager of the single best performing growth fund on the planet announced, "If it's not tech, it's drek."
You know how it ended.
The Nasdaq lost nearly 80%. Julian Robertson closed Tiger. Fidelity's second best manager had his fund pulled. Merrill's chief strategist was shown the door.
Did all of them suddenly get stupid? No. The market lost its mind, and then it came to its senses the hard way.
I'm watching that same arrogance right now. The difference is this time is WORSE, not better.
The malinvestment in this AI buildout is at 17 TIMES compared to what we saw in dot com.
This boom is far more asset intensive, and the dollars are far larger relative to the economy.
And whenever you see hubris stacked on top of debt, you RUN, you don't walk.
That's why I think Oracle can go bankrupt. That's why I think OpenAI WILL go bankrupt.
The combination of ego and leverage never ends any other way.
The market lost its mind, and it's now starting to come to its senses. Watch the full interview here:
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More from The Noble Update Podcast
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Our long/short spread widened to 67.4% today, with our longs up 25.9% on average and our shorts down 41.6%.
Today is the last day you can get into the Best Technical Ideas Online Summit for $99, and I couldn’t be MORE EXCITED about this one. I like to say that putting on these summits is like coaching an All-American team. Most conferences are stuck with whoever’s on their roster, while we get to pick the best players in the country. On October 27 and 28, that team is John Roque, Rich Ross, David Keller, Brian Shannon and 16 more of the best technicians on Wall Street, and I’m hosting the summit in collaboration with Bill Kelleher. Each speaker brings 3 ideas, so you walk away with 60 of them over 2 days. It runs 10 AM to 4 PM ET with replays if you can’t watch live, and every session goes straight to the charts with no fireside chats and no bloviation. The focus is ACTIONABLE, MONEY-MAKING IDEAS. Back in the day, hedge fund guys would get together for stock idea dinners where the price of admission was an idea, and you walked out with a notebook full of them. This summit brings that experience to the individual investor, and that’s what democratizing finance the right way looks like. I wish I’d had access to something like this when I was starting out at Fidelity 45 years ago. Conferences with this kind of firepower cost thousands of dollars to attend. You can’t even buy a good dinner for $99, and today that’s the price of 60 ideas from the best chart readers in the business. If you’re wondering why you should care what technicians have to say: This market runs on narrative dominance, and the chart is where you see what the money is really doing. If you're not willing to spend $99 to hear what these 20 people see in the charts, are you really serious about your money? The early bird price ends today, and tomorrow the ticket goes to $199. Lock in your seat for the investment event of the year here: noble-capevents.com