What Will Drive Financial Markets in 2026—and How to Make It Your Best Year
Money For the Rest of UsShow Notes
We explore the forces likely to shape financial markets in 2026 and how to make better decisions as you pursue your goals this year. Topics covered include: The difference between intentions and resolutions Key behavioral biases and how to overcome them The cautionary tale of a private real estate fund that went public Is the affordability crisis real? The big test for AI in 2026 The financial and economic outlook for the year
Sponsors Gelt - Taxes Done Right Masterworks - Invest in multimillion-dollar artwork offerings Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Insiders Guide Email Newsletter Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus
Show Notes A Slightly Better You in the New Year by Roland Fryer—The Wall Street Journal Paying Not to Go to the Gym by Stefano DellaVigna and Ulrike Malmendier—American Economic Association Handbook of Cognitive Biases—Federal Intelligence Service FIS Employed full time: Median usual weekly real earnings: Wage and salary workers: 16 years and over—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis America’s affordability crisis is (mostly) a mirage—The Economist When Your Private Fund Turns $1 Into 60 Cents by Jason Zweig—The Wall Street Journal Canadians Are Furious After Real Estate Funds Lock Up Their Money by Paula Sambo—Bloomberg Blue Rock TI+ Annual Report—Securities and Exchange Commission Which jobs have grown (and declined) fastest during your working life? by Andrew Van Dam—The Washington Post Is AI More Like a Mind or a Market? by Walter Frick—Bloomberg Don’t Fear the Bubble Bursting by Carl Benedikt Frey—The New York Times Related Episodes 484: 7 Steps to Living a Longer Life 414: Use Caution with Private REITs like Blackstone’s BREIT
Masterworks Disclosures Listeners get priority access to Masterworks at https://www.Masterworks.com/david Art correlation and appreciation data based on repeat-sales index of historical Post-War & Contemporary Art market prices and S&P 500 annualized return (includes dividends reinvested) from 1995 to 2025, developed by Masterworks. There are significant limitations to comparative asset class data. Indices are unmanaged and a Masterworks investor cannot invest directly in an index. Content creator (the “Endorser”) receives cash compensation from Masterworks, LLC (“Masterworks”). Endorser is a client of Masterworks. Masterworks can only make and accept sales after an offering statement has been filed, and “qualified”, by the SEC. Any offers may be revoked before notice of qualification. Indications of interest involve no obligation. Investing involves risk. Past performance not indicative of future returns. For further disclosure on Regulation A Offerings, Risks of Investing, Performance Metrics, Art Market Data, and more visit the offering documents filed with the SEC and Important Disclosures at masterworks.com/cd. See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
More from Money For the Rest of Us
We analyze long-term stock returns when investing at market peaks and bottoms, and when stocks are cheap or expensive. We also share what we think stocks will return over the next decade and why. Finally, we simulate the investment outcomes for someone who invests $50 per week. Episode Slides Episode Transcript Sponsors Get the free guide from NetSuite: Aligning for the Agentic Era: How AI Is Changing Everyday Work Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
I provide a short update on Money for the Rest of Us and introduce our listener survey. All survey participants will get access to an exclusive podcast episode on my worst investing mistakes and what I learned. Take the Money for the Rest of Us Listener Survey See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
In this episode, we explore why the income we earn isn't the same as the return. We show how option income strategies work, what their historical returns have been, what drives the return, and what reasonable return expectations are. We show why option income strategies have a positive expected return while sports betting has a negative expected return. Finally, we look at other areas where we confuse income with the total return. Sponsors Money for the Rest of Us Retirement Investing Cohort Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Episode slide deck Variance Risk Premia by Peter Carr and Liuren Wu—NYU Cross section of option returns and idiosyncratic stock volatility by Jie Cao and Bing Han—The Journal of Financial Economics The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options by Joost Driessen, Pascal J. Maenhout, Grigory Vilkov—SSRN Cross-section of option returns and volatility by Amit Goyal and Alessio Saretto—The Journal of Financial Economics The Art of Put Selling: A 10 Year Study by John Marshall, Krag Gregory, Katherine Fogertey—Goldman Sachs Low Stress Bets Related Episodes 557: Don’t Fall in the Dividend Trap 549: Why Catastrophe Bonds Are Yielding 12%, and Should You Invest? 544: Sports Betting Is Not Investing Article: Tail Events and Tail Risk See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Bad actors will use AI to disrupt the financial system, transportation networks, and utilities. We should prepare now for this inevitability. We share how in this episode. We also explain why the bull market in gold will likely continue. Topics covered include: Why the OpenAI agentic AI breach is so disturbing How do we prepare for cyberattacks Why gold should be one of the assets we hold apart from the financial system How the historical relationship between gold and real interest rates has broken down To what extent are central banks selling dollars to buy gold How gold ETF flows influence the gold price
The national debt exceeds $40 trillion, U.S. long-term Treasury yields are at 19-year highs, the U.S. Treasury Department is intervening in currency and bond markets. We unpack it all in this episode and show you how to position your investment portfolio to lock in higher yields and protect yourself from falling bond prices. Sponsors Try NetSuite for Free Delete Me – Use code David20 to get 20% off Our Premium Products Asset Camp Money for the Rest of Us Plus Show Notes Episode 563 Slide Deck Debt to the Penny - U.S. Treasury Historical debt and budget tables - U.S. White House Average U.S. national debt interest rate - U.S. Treasury Treasury Announces Increased Sizes of Nominal Long-End Liquidity Support Buybacks Beginning September 9 - U.S Treasury America’s Risky Debt: What Markets See That Policymakers Don’t - Hanno Lustig Related Episodes 525: No More AAA – What the U.S. Debt Downgrade Means for Investors 463: How to Lock in Higher Yields 464: More Ways to Lock in Higher Yields See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.