Ireland-UK vibes. A rapidly changing world. AI hysteria

In this episode, Jim outlines the backdrop to the UK autumn budget: inflation rising to 3.5%, transport inflation at 6.6%, higher borrowing, and the likelihood of another Bank of England rate increase. The pair discuss the argument that the UK’s strength lies in high value professional services, including consulting, legal work, computer programming, and AI related business investment. They note that UK innovative companies have absorbed more than one-third of European venture capital in the first nine months of the year, reinforcing the case for not damaging the sector with heavier taxes. Jim and Chris revisit the debate over tax complexity, using Tim Harford’s critique of Britain’s “bad taxes” and examples like VAT oddities, National Insurance, and the enormous length of the UK tax code. The conversation highlights how complexity creates demand for tax lawyers and accountants, while AI may eventually let ordinary people search for loopholes or understand the system more easily. In energy, they discuss the UK government’s approval of the Jackdaw gas field and the proposed Rosebank oil field, framing both as pragmatic responses to energy security, jobs, and winter heating needs. They debate the tension between climate goals and the reality that the UK still needs fossil fuels, especially when domestic supply may have lower carbon consequences than importing liquefied gas from overseas. Chris explains that high oil and gas prices may partly reflect countries quietly rebuilding strategic reserves after running them down. The second half shifts to youth mental health, prompted by a Jigsaw report showing increased demand in Ireland for services and a deterioration in young people’s mental health. They explore possible causes: mobile phones, social media, war, housing pressure, job insecurity, AI related anxiety, and the weakening of friendship and community networks. Chris argues that data on mental health is hard to interpret because increased reporting may be driving some of the apparent rise, but he also notes there are real service backlogs, including 400,000 children waiting for mental health support in the UK. The discussion ends on a broader reflection that material living standards have improved over decades, so the explanation for worsening wellbeing may lie more in social connection than in economics alone. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets, France, AI, Billionaires, and the UK Welfare Crisis This episode ranges from market history and Irish trade data to France’s fiscal bind, the geopolitics of AI infrastructure, billionaire wealth, and the UK’s welfare system. Chris and Jim move quickly between economics, politics, and technology, with a recurring theme: systems that look stable on the surface are under far more strain than most people realize.They also cover the strategic risks of AI and data centers, the pressure on Europe’s car industry from China, and the scale of the UK’s benefits problem, especially for younger people. It’s a wide-ranging conversation anchored in hard numbers and blunt political judgments. Key topics In this episode, Chris and Jim revisit Black Monday and how shocks in markets can create outsized winners in bonds when equities sell off. Jim walks through Ireland’s merchandise trade data for the first eight months of the year, including a 23.9% drop in exports overall and major swings in chemical and pharma trade. They discuss China’s stronger than expected Q3 growth, driven by policy easing, exports, high-tech manufacturing, AI-related components, and EVs. Chris argues that some of China’s export strength likely reflects dual-use trade tied to Russia and Iran, especially military components. The conversation turns to France, where protests are framed as a symptom of a deeper fiscal and pension crisis rather than only street unrest. Chris says France’s pay as you go pension system, low pension age, and rising bond yields point to a real debt and fiscal problem. They examine the Franco-German push to soften the 2035 internal combustion engine phaseout, which Chris and Jim both view as a strategic retreat in the face of Chinese EV competition. AI infrastructure becomes a major focus, with concern over delayed data centers, financing pressure, community backlash, and whether current AI revenues can justify the investment boom. Chris raises a strategic security concern: if AI and cloud systems are controlled by a small number of US tech oligarchs, they can be used as leverage through a simple off switch. They discuss the moral and economic case around billionaires, including arguments that innovators create large social value even if wealth is also shaped by privilege and unfair tax treatment. The episode closes on the UK welfare system, where Chris lays out alarming data on sickness benefits, young people being written off, and a system that appears to trap people rather than help them back into work.

Will 2027 see a General Election in the UK? Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This episode covers a wide-ranging macro and geopolitics conversation, starting with Irish residential property prices and the affordability squeeze, then moving into China’s pressure on the European car industry, IMF growth and fiscal warnings, and finally the security risks created by everything being connected to the internet. The discussion closes with the Nobel Prize in Economics and why Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford matter for modern central banking. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this episode: Chris argues the Irish government is spending too much of temporary corporation tax revenue on permanent commitments, citing IFAC’s warning that the state is spending six out of every seven euros from corporation tax. Jim pushes back on the budget politics saying ministers faced strong departmental pressure and that the six percent spending target, even if imperfect, may be a reasonable outcome in context. Tax policy gets a mixed verdict: both agree the budget was better for taxpayers than last year, but Chris says the increases in thresholds and credits still lag inflation and do not restore real purchasing power. Capital gains tax is singled out as a growth lever with Jim welcoming the cut from 33 percent to 31 percent but arguing it should eventually return to 20 percent. Irish inflation is still running hot with Jim noting September CPI at 4.1 percent, driven by mortgage interest, electricity, and home heating oil rather than the domestic economy. Manufacturing output shows a split economy , with overall output up 5.8 percent year on year, but the modern sector down 6.8 percent while the traditional sector edged up 0.8 percent. The conversation turns to youth mental health after Chris cites a UK report showing a 50 percent increase in reported autism and ADHD among young people since 1993. They connect mental distress to wider social pressures including long waiting lists, NEET levels, poverty, housing, screen addiction, environmental anxiety, war, and fear of AI-driven job loss. Jim argues intergenerational inequality is worsening saying many young people expect to be less well off than their parents because they struggle to build assets, especially through housing. Inheritance tax becomes a flashpoint with Jim calling it reprehensible and arguing for a far larger increase or abolition, while Chris notes that only 4% of estates in the UK actually pay any inheritance tax. US politics comes under fire especially the planned live-streaming of a firing squad execution and restrictions on skilled immigration through H1B and green card sponsorship pathways. A provocative argument about porn and social media suggests modern platforms inherited their attention-grabbing mechanics from the porn industry, helping explain addictive scrolling and algorithmic design. The Green Party’s momentum appears to have collapsed with Chris and Jim noting Zack Polanski’s by-election setback and criticising the party’s shift away from environmental politics toward hard-left activist positions.