The Elements of Power: Supply Chains, Technology, and Energy with Nicolas Niarchos

Mathematician, mental-math performer, and backgammon grandmaster Arthur Benjamin joins Noah and Autumn to talk about his book How to Win. Together they explore what mathematics knows about winning that human intuition gets wrong: coincidences, the birthday paradox, gambler's ruin, and why the house wins even when you reach your goal more than half the time.

"I'm just not a math person." If you've ever said that about yourself, this episode is for you. Dr. Geillan Aly, author of Compassionate Math, joins Breaking Math to break down the real difference between math anxiety and math trauma — and why mathematics, more than almost any other subject, is uniquely built to make one bad experience feel like permanent proof of failure. In this episode we cover: 00:00 – What is math trauma, and why is it different from anxiety? 02:35 – Why math specifically (vs. history, reading, or other subjects)? 07:28 – Teaching concepts vs. teaching procedures 13:32 – The "sixes" story: a failing student's transformative breakthrough 20:15 – Math anxiety vs. math trauma, explained 28:56 – Whose fault is math trauma — students, teachers, or society? 36:21 – How compassionate math scales beyond the classroom 39:21 – One piece of advice for students, and one for teachers

Professional forecaster Molly Hickman breaks down what it really means to assign a probability to the future — and why she believes generalists often out-forecast subject-matter experts. This episode explores the art and science of forecasting, from techniques to ethical considerations, and how AI and prediction markets are shaping our understanding of the future.

What does it mean to be alive? In this episode of Breaking Math, Autumn and Noah speak with Melanie Challenger, author of Alive, about one of the most profound questions in science and philosophy: how do we define life? Challenger argues that life is not simply a machine-like process or a bundle of genetic instructions. Living beings are embodied, purposeful agents. From single-celled organisms to sequoia seeds, from animals to human beings, life is marked by an astonishing capacity to work to keep itself alive. Chapters 08:12 The concept of purpose in living beings 09:14 The scientific view of purpose and agency 11:52 The importance of purpose and meaning in life 13:19 The danger of ignoring organism agency in science 14:34 Living beings as purposeful agents 15:35 Comparing purpose in a Roomba and a single-celled organism 18:03 Autopoetic vs allopoetic systems 20:03 Free will, agency, and the universe 23:24 The physical basis of life and energy 28:38 Aristotle's concept of psyche and purpose 33:46 The importance of understanding what life truly is 37:56 Material integration and the difference between machines and living beings 38:15 The concept of self and embodiment in life 41:09 The whole body as the agent, not just the brain

Neuroscientist Stuart Firestein (Columbia University) joins Breaking Math to make an extravagant claim: uncertainty isn't a weakness in science — it's the defining feature that makes progress possible. In this episode, we break down why the "one right answer" myth is one of the most damaging ideas in science, why real experts are often the most uncertain people in the room, and why authority and expertise pull in opposite directions, covering two fundamentally different kinds of probability, why Darwin never erased a 300-year-old classification system built on an assumption he disproved, why AI is exceptional at prediction but not built for causation, and why pseudoscience always has a confident answer while real science rarely does — plus the philosophical difference between hope and optimism, and why Voltaire had to invent the word "optimism" in 1759 to describe it.