Summary
Infections are surging globally, particularly with the emergence of the BA.4 and BA.5 variants of COVID-19, yet hospitalizations are primarily incidental rather than directly caused by the virus. Data from the United States indicates that while hospitalizations have increased by 12% in the past week, a significant portion of these cases involve patients who are admitted for other reasons but test positive for COVID-19. In the UK, it is estimated that about two-thirds of hospitalizations are incidental.
Current statistics show that infections in England are rising, with approximately one in 30 people infected, while Scotland reports even higher rates at one in 18. The increase in cases correlates with the spread of BA.5, which is outpacing BA.4. Despite the rise in infections, the number of patients in intensive care remains relatively low compared to pre-Omicron times, suggesting that most cases are mild.
Long COVID symptoms continue to be a concern, with reports indicating that individuals in more deprived areas experience higher rates of long COVID and associated symptoms. The Office for National Statistics highlights that weakness, fatigue, and respiratory issues are among the most common complaints. As the pandemic evolves, the efficacy of vaccines against these new variants remains uncertain, particularly as the majority of the population has already been exposed to the virus or vaccinated. Looking ahead, experts anticipate continued high levels of infection and the potential for a challenging flu season in the upcoming winter months.
Show Notes
Majority of covid admissions are now incidental, Uploaded 02-07-22US, Variant Proportionshttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportionsBA.2 5.7%BA.2.12.1 42%BA.5 36.6%BA.4 15.7%BA.1s 0%Delta 0%Others 0%Resultant hospitalizationsUp 12% on the weekDeaths, 387, 7 day average, up 23%Since January 2020, 1 in 327 people have diedhttps://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissionsONShttps://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsightsPrediction based on Zoe datahttps://health-study.joinzoe.com/dataEngland, more people have been infected alreadyHospitalised in the UKhttps://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=EnglandAbout a third admitted for covidTwo thirds with covidLong covidWeakness / tirednessShortness of breathMuscle acheTrouble sleepingDifficulty concentratingHeadacheAnxiety / worryLow moodLoss of smellMemory loss / confusionLoss of tasteCoughVertigo / dizzinessChest painPalpitationsLoss of appetiteSore throatNausea / vomitingAbdominal painDiarrhoeaFeverAmong the most deprivedUnable to work from home, 80.6%Risk of developing long COVID symptoms, 11.1%Among the least deprivedUnable to work from home, 62.6%Risk of developing long COVID symptoms, 8.1% Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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Direct link to parliament TV, https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/5e1f14d2-72b3-488f-a53c-fc94fee92dacUploaded 16-01-24Link to Hansard full transcript, https://hansard.parliament.uk/Commons/2024-01-16/debates/152B485D-812D-43CC-9D25-C2B651564810/ExcessDeathTrends?highlight=westminster%20hall#contribution-46059AFE-9A03-472B-9364-0BF972E2E7D8I thank the Backbench Business Committee for scheduling this debate and my 17 colleagues from across the House who supported the application for a debate on the trends on excess deaths. This debate follows on from my Adjournment debate on 20 October on the same issue.The eyes of history are upon us. Every generation looks back in wonder at the incredible mistakes of its forebears. They will ask questions such as, “How could they possibly not have realised how wrong they were?”, “What on earth happened to them?”, “Why did they ignore the evidence for so long, as well as their values and every opportunity to learn from the mistakes of yesteryear?” and “What madness captures men?”From 2010 to 2019, annual death rates in England and Wales oscillated between 484,000 and 542,000. In 2020, there were 607,000 deaths, which is 65,000 more than the maximum figure in 2018. In 2021, there were 586,000 deaths, which is 44,000 more than the 2018 figure. After such a rise, there should be a significant deficit. In fact, our most vulnerable and elderly, who might have lived a while longer, were sadly taken from us early. In 2022, there were 577,000 deaths in England and Wales, and in 2023 there were 581,000. That is a huge rise when a significant deficit would, and should, have been expected. The deficit has been filled not with the extremely old and vulnerable, but has been filled—and then some—with many, many others who are often young or in the prime of their lives.Some people might want to ascribe the excess deaths in 2022 and 2023 to the virus, but that would be a mistake; that is not what their death certificates say. Moreover, far too many young people are dying. Far from being below the recent rolling average, excess deaths in 2022 were above that average: 6% above. In 2023, when one might have expected deaths to finally fall below the average, the excess was also 6% above. Those numbers are higher in the younger age groups.No one with integrity can fail to be troubled by those figures. What is actually going on? That is why we need to have this debate. This problem affects us all. It affects every community in every constituency across the country. I thank all right hon. and hon. Members attending this debate, and we need to thank the public for their interest, which has stirred the interest of colleagues. I am very encouraged by the turnout for today’s debate, which is considerably better than we have seen in the past.Not everyone in this room will be comfortable with analysing scientific data and figures, but that is not my position. I was fortunate enough to take a degree inToggle showing location of Column 212WHbiological sciences from Nottingham University many years ago. I specialised in biochemistry, genetics, behaviour and virology.Of course we should be using the most accurate figures that we have. Later in the speech, I will talk about the data we really want, which would settle this matter once and for all beyond reasonable doubt.I thank the public for their pressure and interest in these statistics, the people who have attended in person today and the thousands who will be watching on television or online.There is a burning question at the heart of this debate. After excess deaths, there should be a deficit: where is it? When will we have it? Worse, why is the deficit being not just filled but significantly exceeded? Why are the institutions, whose job it is to notice, record, publicise and call attention to such matters, apparently asleep at the wheel?A second Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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