Show Notes
I have been banging the drum for copper for some time, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Gold has the glamour, but many, including veteran investor Rick Rule, now see the greater opportunity in copper. In summer 2024, I highlighted three copper companies Amerigo Resources (ARG.TO) at around C$1.75 and Arizona Sonoran Copper (ASCU.TO) at C$1.36 and QCCU (QCCU.V) at 12c . Amerigo and Arizona Sonora both hit C$8 on Monday meaning gains of ~350% and ~500%. QCCU, on the other hand, is still at 12c. You can’t win them all.Back in May we noted that things were getting a little hot. The metal had just hit fresh highs; there was a plethora of investment bank supercycle notes and social media was full of predictions about imminent shortages. The long-term story is intact but don’t chase it, we suggested. Copper tends to be weaker over the summer and some consolidation could give you a better buying opportunity. We got a good opportunity in June but it did not last long, and here we are three months on with copper at ~$6.50/lb a couple of per cent below where we were in May. It doesn’t take a genius to work out which way the trend is going in that particular chart. The summer lull has been more of a pause than anything else. Meanwhile, beneath the surface, the fundamental copper story is getting stronger. Copper’s problem is not demand. It is supply. We covered the demand side extensively in May. AI needs copper. Data centres need it. Power grids need it. Electric vehicles, rearmament, reindustrialistation, India - they all need copper. This is not the usual China story by the way. If anythign China demand is lacklustre. Its imports of unwrought copper fell 11.5% year-on-year in July and industrial production there has been slowing. But, as RBC notes, the LME copper market had moved into its steepest backwardation since the 2021 squeeze. In other words, buyers are paying substantially more for copper now than for delivery later. That is a classic physical tightness indicator. Antofagasta has cut its 2026 production guidance after problems at Los Pelambres. Codelco has abandoned its 1.34 million tonne production target and now expects to produce less than it did last year. Meanwhile we have BHP’s latest results. Copper now accounts for 54% of its earnings (EBITDA). Its copper mines are extraordinarily profitable (70% EBITDA margin). Yet despite the obvious incentive to produce more, BHP’s copper production actually fell 3% last year. This is the largest mining company in the world, with some of the best copper assets, engineers and access to capital on the planet. If anyone can turn on the copper taps, so to speak, it should be BHP. Yet it is talking about a “persistent structural deficit” of as much as 10 million tonnes a year next decade. Demand from electrification, digitalisation, data centres and other newer uses, meanwhile, is expected to grow at around 6.5% a year.So it now aims to grow its copper production at ~5% a year, faster than the rest of its business. The requires an extraordinary amount of capital. In a recent video, Merlin Marr-Johnson, CEO of Fitzroy Minerals (FTZ.V) analyses BHP’s spending plans using Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, as an example and concludes, “They’re spending $5 billion to stand still. And that is the copper industry in a nutshell.” Billions of dollars of investment don’t necessarily mean billions of dollars of new production. Mines get older. Grades decline. Pits get deeper. More rock has to be shifted to produce the same amount of metal. Processing plants wear out and have to be replaced. Sometimes you have to spend billions just to stop production falling. Which brings us to Rick Rule. Is copper now a better bet than gold? It could be. Rule argues that “The biggest copper mining companies in the world need to spend $250 billion to maintain current levels of copper production.” Note - to maintain, not increase. Not every one has $250 billion sitting around wa
More from The Flying Frisby - money, markets and more
Something a little different this week. On Monday I gave a talk for UK Finance called Making Sense of It All, about the multiple contradictions at work int he economy: rising bond yields yet equity markets grinding higher, huge investment in AI despite limited profit, and the growing squeeze on the materials needed to build AI infrastructure. (Many thanks to Duncan and Rhiannon for inviting me to speak). I’ve taken the deck and put together an online version - the first time I’ve ever attempted such a thing - I hope you will find it useful. The transcript is available above. Until next time, Dominic If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
After an extraordinary run which started in 2022 below US$20/oz and ended in January this year at US$122, silver has been working its way downwards. We have had a correction of almost 50%. Today we’re at $58/oz having been as low as $55 in July. We are almost certainly going to go back and retest that low, I would say, and silver is very much in a downtrend. $50 has been a huge line in the sand that goes all the way back to 1980 and for decades silver could not get above that number. Then, late last year, it cut through it like butter. What was resistance becomes support is one of the technical analysts’ guiding mantras, and there is every chance $50 will do just that. However, if there is one thing I have learnt about silver over the years it is that has an unrivalled propensity to let you down, which is I suppose my way of saying it could quite easily go a lot lower. It’s silver after all. However, the fundamentals favour silver. The market remains in deficit. The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey forecasts a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive annual deficit. Never mind jewellery and investment demand, silver finds an enormous amount of industrial demand (~60% of annual demand), especially in electronics, because it is such a good conductor of electricity. The sudden increase from solar panel demand a few years back is thought to have triggered the recent run, although manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in each panel. Bear markets are a time to build. As an investor, you research the companies you might want to buy - there is no need necessarily to rush out and buy them - start building positions when nobody else wants them, make the purchases on your own terms. There is no need to rush. With that in mind, I am going to tell you about my largest silver position today. I even have an interview with the boss. It was a big winner for readers in the last cycle going from below 30c north of C$3, rising more than 1,000%. With the falls in the silver price it has now come back more than 50%, and I think it is worth taking a look. Its CEO is both young and competent and he is growing the company in an admirable way so that in 3 to 5 years time you are going to see something much bigger.
It’s my pleasure to sit down with with the man who “gold pilled” me back in the day with his book, The Collapse of the Dollar. James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, has spent five decades working in banking, finance and investments, making the case that gold is not an investment or another commodity, but money in its purest form. We discuss why he believes the US can no longer repeat the Volcker rescue of the 1980s, the relationship between sound money and liberty, and why he expects gold eventually to return to the centre of global commerce as technology changes the way money moves. James’ latest book is Money and Liberty and you can find his IEA paper here. This interview was brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Good Sunday to you, We have a fantastic interview for you today. I sit down with legendary Canadian investor Frank Giustra to discuss gold, government debt and why he believes the world is entering the most dangerous geopolitical period of our lifetime. You can either watch the video or listen as a podcast via Spotify et al.Frank made his fortune in mining and natural resources, before founding Lionsgate Films, the world’s biggest independent film studio. His track record as a businessman and investor is superlative. We discuss why he believes this is no ordinary metals bull market, the accelerating shift by central banks from government debt into physical gold, the risk that another round of quantitative easing could trigger a dollar crisis, and whether gold may ultimately need to be revalued higher, dramaticically higher. We also touch on China, financial repression, critical minerals and why, of everything Frank owns today, gold remains the asset he is most excited about. Money Markets & More is the interview series from Dominic Frisby, exploring money, markets, gold, economics and the ideas shaping the world.🥇 The programme is brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
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