Canada's Housing Market Faces a Recession Reality | Monthly Real Estate Roundtable
Move Smartly: The PodcastShow Notes
Canada's economy is showing increasing signs of strain, with weakening economic data pointing toward a technical recession—and this month's Real Estate Roundtable unpacks what that could mean for the housing market in the months and years ahead. Joining me are Vancouver realtor Steve Saretsky and Toronto mortgage broker David Larock as we discuss how slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and softer consumer confidence are impacting housing activity across the country. We also break down the latest outlook for interest rates and whether weaker economic conditions could push the Bank of Canada toward additional rate cuts. What do falling bond yields and softer inflation data mean for mortgage rates, buyers, and homeowners renewing over the next year? Finally, we discuss the longer-term outlook for Canadian real estate—and why the next phase of the market may not look like the rapid rebounds Canadians have become accustomed to. Instead of another quick surge higher, are we entering a period of years-long flat home prices as incomes slowly catch up to housing costs? All that and more in this month's housing market roundtable covering Toronto, Vancouver, and the broader Canadian economy.
More from Move Smartly: The Podcast
In this month's live, we took a closer look at the latest GTA housing market stats and trends, along with our new First-Time Homebuyer Report, exploring where buyers can find homes under $1M in great school districts and how MoveSmartly.com can help make that search easier. We also caught up with Davin and Gus from our team to hear what they're seeing on the ground this fall, what buyers and sellers should keep in mind, and why multiple offers don't always mean paying well over asking. Mortgage expert David Larock joined us to break down the latest U.S. inflation numbers and what they could mean for the Bank of Canada and mortgage rates here at home. Set-up a meeting with John Pasalis and his agents at Move Smartly to discuss your own real estate questions privately: https://www.movesmartly.com/meetjohn Read our full report on the top GTA neighbourhoods for first-time buyers looking for great schools and homes under $1M: https://insights.movesmartly.com/first-time-buyer-neighbourhoods-great-schools
Steve Saretsky and David Larock join this month's roundtable on the housing markets in Toronto and Vancouver. The fall market stalled in September, and the panel explains why a big rebound looks unlikely before year end. Rates are also moving the wrong way for buyers. Even with the Bank of Canada on hold, fixed mortgage rates are rising. David explains what's driving that and what it means for borrowers. Finally, will Canada let foreign buyers back in? With the federal ban set to expire, Ottawa is considering allowing foreigners to buy new homes. The panel debates whether that would help clear unsold condos or bring back the speculation that created the glut.
For more than a decade, Canadians borrowed on the assumption that interest rates would always come back down. BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic says that assumption no longer holds. In this episode, Robert explains why BMO believes the era of low real interest rates is officially over. He sees it as a long-term shift, not a temporary spike that the next rate-cutting cycle will undo. We discuss what that means for housing, especially in the GTA. Robert sees the market splitting in two. Larger ground-oriented homes are firming, while the small condo market remains saturated and investors have largely walked away. He says he can see house prices levelling off while condo prices continue to trend down. We close with the AI-driven stock market boom, which Robert places in the "seventh inning stretch" of a classic asset bubble, and what happens when it ends. Robert Kavcic is Director and Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets. His research is available at economics.bmo.com.
Every month, John Pasalis and Davin McMahon take real situations from real people and work through them on air. This month, four of them come back to the same question from different directions: what do you do when you think prices haven't finished falling? A buyer who has been waiting since last year wants to know what a bottom actually looks like in the data, before it's obvious to everyone. A couple in Etobicoke has been on the market since May, cut their price twice, and can't get an offer. A pair of empty nesters with no mortgage are wondering whether to sell, rent for a few years, and buy back in. And a small landlord is $900 a month out of pocket on a condo with a tenant who isn't going anywhere. Then a fifth situation, which is about what a slow market does to the people selling houses rather than the houses themselves. Two first-time buyers with a hard $800,000 ceiling keep getting shown listings $75,000 to $100,000 above it, on the theory that those sellers are desperate.
Two people knocked on Mr. Bouchard's door. He didn't invite them. They got him to sign documents he says he didn't understand, and left without giving him copies. Then they registered a charge against his house for $30,999.85. Money started leaving his bank account every month. Years later, a notice of sale arrived. To keep his home, he was told to pay $80,711.29. That's a real case, decided this year by the Ontario Superior Court. And according to my guest, it's one of dozens involving the same companies, the same people, and in some cases the same lawyers. David Sterns is a partner at Sotos Class Actions. He's acting without fee, alongside lawyers from the Advocacy Centre for the Elderly, in a case that alleges a pattern of fraudulent and unconscionable mortgages registered against the homes of older Ontarians. We go through how it works, step by step. Who knocks first, who comes back promising to fix it, where the money actually goes, and how a charge ends up on title without the owner knowing. If you own your home, the last part of this conversation is the practical one. What to look for, how to check what's registered against your property, and who to call if you find something you can't explain.