Show Notes
Pete Buttigieg and JD Vance are leading the primary fields in Overton Insights' latest national poll. This is a special episode breaking down the March 2026 Overton Insights national poll, from presidential primary matchups to findings about unpopular political commentators and what voters think about a military draft. In this episode, we cover: Buttigieg leads, but can he actually win? Pete Buttigieg tops a crowded Democratic primary field at 16%, two points ahead of "Undecided" and three points ahead of Gavin Newsom. We break down why his lead is almost entirely a function of a fractured field, what receiving zero percent of the Black vote means for his ceiling, and why Kamala Harris at nine percent — tied with Bernie Sanders — may signal she's done before she starts. JD Vance leads the Republican primary, but trails behind Rubio in head-to-head ballot test. Vance tops a crowded GOP field, but loses by six points in a head-to-head against Marco Rubio. We analyze what's driving Vance's decline, why Rubio's bipartisan appeal may make him more electable, and whether Ron DeSantis is actually more viable than his last campaign suggests. Hasan Piker, Candace Owens, and the name ID reality check. Our poll tested favorability on a range of political figures from Spencer Pratt to Ben Shapiro to Erica Kirk. The crosstab that broke X? Forty-two percent of people who still live with their parents view Hassan Piker favorably, one of the only groups with a net positive. We discuss what name ID data tells us about the echo chamber problem in political media. Military draft, sports betting, and independent voter drift. We found that 66% of Americans oppose a Trump-implemented military draft, though Republicans split nearly 50-50 when Trump's name is attached. We also cover sports betting sentiment (47% oppose legalization in their state) and look at how independents are tracking much closer to Democrats than Republicans in this poll. The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Director of Polling and founder of the Beacon Poll and is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll crosstabs - March 2026 Overton Insights National Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/overton-insights-poll-may-2026/
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More midterm mania! The national environment is hurting Republicans in red states while unpopular Democratic incumbents get squeezed in blue ones, so candidate quality is playing a big role in determining the margins. Underneath it all, Trump's approval continues to collapse, specifically with young voters. "It's the economy, stupid!" In this episode, we cover: Is Kansas really a toss-up? - Crystal Ball and Split Ticket moved the Kansas Senate race from Lean Republican to Toss-up. Mark breaks down why Democrat Adam Hamilton is one of the strongest candidates of the cycle, why incumbent Roger Marshall is struggling, and cites NYT/Siena's poll showing Marshall +1 . Can Republican Michelle Tafoya pull an upset in Minnesota? - Fox News and Crystal Ball shifted Minnesota from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat, favoring Tafoya. Mark explains why a three-point polling error could put Tafoya within reach of Peggy Flanagan, and debates whether her pro-choice Republican ad helps or costs her the base. Is Talarico still the favorite in Texas? - New polls from the Texas Politics Project/UT/YouGov (Talarico +3), Marist (Talarico +2), Siena (Talarico +4), and Quantus Insights (Paxton +0.5). Mark explains how pollsters model a state with no party registration, why the leaked Paxton audio isn't much of an October Surprise, and why Greg Abbott finds himself in tight race with Gina Hinojosa. Is Kathy Hochul in trouble in New York? - Polls range from Hochul +3 to +22. What's going on there? Why young voters turned on Trump - Trump hit an all-time net approval low of -23.9, and The Argument's polling has him at 50 points underwater with likely voters between 18-29. Olivia points out changing tides among young voter dynamics. Mark agrees this is about the economy, and that Democrats shouldn't read it as a policy mandate. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:55 - Kansas Senate moves to toss-up: "an absolute coin toss" 04:07 - Minnesota shifts from Likely Dem to Lean Dem: is Michelle Tafoya a real threat? 09:21 - Four new Texas Senate polls 14:05 - How pollsters model Texas 20:38 - Texas in a Harris midterm? Hypothetical question 21:34 - New York governor: is Hochul underestimated? 27:50 - Why the Trump attack line flops in blue states 29:07 - Trump's approval hits a new low with young voters 34:54 - When the economy's bad, social issues take a back seat POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Texas Politics Project / UT / YouGov, Texas Senate and Governor: https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/latest-poll 📊 Marist, Texas Senate: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/2026-midterm-elections-in-texas-october-2026/ 📊 Siena, Texas Senate: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2109957019377783056?s=20 📊 Quantus Insights, Texas Senate: https://quantusinsights.org/f/texas-senate-paxton-and-talarico-in-a-near-tie 📊 G. Elliott Morris, 50+1 Texas Senate polling average: https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/texas 📊 Pollfinity, New York Governor: https://pollfinity.com/polls/ny-governor-2026-oct 📊 Beacon Research, New York Governor: https://www.politico.com/newsletters/new-york-playbook/2026/10/15/mamdanis-mia-from-gop-attack-ads-01119739 📊 The Argument / Verasight, Trump approval among young voters: https://substack.com/home/post/p-219494803 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
The Overton Insights team is joined by Florida Politics reporter AG Gancarski to discuss the midterms in Florida and new national polling trends. Both Mark and AG expect Republicans to hold Florida this November, but they split on the margins. In this episode, we cover: Is Byron Donalds' lead as safe as it looks? - Mason-Dixon has Donalds up 7 over David Jolly and YouGov has him up 2. AG and Mark dig into why Donalds skipped the primary debates, Jay Collins' influence, James Fishback's refusal to endorse, and the end of the DeSantis era. How close can Angie Nixon get to Ashley Moody? - Moody leads the special election for Marco Rubio's old Senate seat. Mark argues that if Nixon keeps it within five, Jolly could win the governor's race. What does Gallup's D+11 Party ID poll mean for the midterms? - Gallup's Q3 party ID is the best number for Democrats since 2009. Mark expects the final environment closer to D+8, and AG says he isn't seeing a shy Republican effect in Florida polling. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 04:31 - Did skipping debates cost Byron Donalds? 07:10 - Why James Fishback is staying on the sidelines 10:42 - Donalds' polling lead and Jolly's money problem 13:55 - Florida Senate Race: Ashley Moody vs. Angie Nixon 20:13 - Is Florida a red state or a purple one? 24:41 - Gallup's D+11 and the blue wave debate 29:41 - Can Republicans separate from Trump? 31:24 - Florida predictions: governor and Senate 33:01 - Florida's sleeper race for CFO POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Mason-Dixon Florida poll: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/28724874/fl1026results.pdf 📊 YouGov Florida poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_fl_20260921_lv.pdf 📊 Gallup Q3 party identification: https://news.gallup.com/poll/654560/quarterly-party-affiliation.aspx The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. This episode features special guest AG Gancarski, who has covered statewide elections for Florida Politics since 2014. His work has also appeared in the Washington Post, New York Post, Washington Times, and National Review. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
Less than five weeks until the election, Mark Cunningham calls these key governor races. Plus: new drama unfolds in Texas, and a new polls in Georgia and Ohio shed light on shifting dynamics. In this episode, we cover: Can Republicans hold governor's mansions in a blue wave year? - Mark's first gubernatorial predictions: Rick Jackson by 1.8 over Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, Vivek Ramaswamy by 1 over Amy Acton in Ohio, Jocelyn Benson by 8 in Michigan, Rob Sand by 3 in Iowa, Tina Kotek by 2.6 over Christine Drazan in Oregon, and David Crowley by 4 over Tom Tiffany in Wisconsin. Mark expects split tickets in Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa. Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing Georgia? - A YouGov poll of about 3,300 likely voters shows a 10-point gap between Jon Ossoff's Senate number and Lance Bottoms' governor number. Mark explains why that moves the governor's race from lean D to a toss-up. Why is the blue wave stronger in red states? - Olivia brings in Nate Silver's read on where the wave is landing. Mark argues voters are punishing whoever holds power: Trump in red states, Democratic incumbents in places like Oregon and Maine. Will Ohio prove the polls wrong? - Mark runs down the latest polls of Ohio, and explains why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't translating in the polls while Sen. Jon Husted's low profile could be hurting him. Is Trump dragging down Ken Paxton? - Paxton seemingly blames Trump and the RNC midterm convention for his campaign's troubles. Mark reacts and explains why he doesn't trust the Pulse Decision Science internal poll showing Paxton ahead. How unpopular is the Iran war? - The Argument's national poll puts the war in Iran near Vietnam among the least popular U.S. wars of the last century, and finds Trump's approval falling as gas prices rise. CHAPTERS: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode... 00:35 - Headlines: two Michigan polls, a Paxton internal, and Cook shifts in Florida and Texas 01:49 - Mark flips his read of the Georgia governor's race to Rick Jackson 02:21 - Governor calls for Ohio, Michigan, and Iowa 04:16 - Oregon: the governor's race where Republicans could pull an upset 05:35 - Wisconsin after the Marquette poll 06:17 - Is Keisha Lance Bottoms losing her lead? 08:46 - Why the blue wave seems strongest in red states 10:20 - Ohio may be the test of whether the polls are wrong 13:17 - Why Ramaswamy's name ID isn't helping him 16:29 - Paxton's leaked audio and new internal polling 20:12 - The Argument: Iran war, gas prices, and Trump's approval POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Michigan Senate poll (Cygnal/Beacon): https://enjoyer.com/michigan-poll-fall-2026/ 📊 Fox News Michigan Senate poll: https://www.foxnews.com/fox-news-poll-methodology-statement 📊 Pulse Decision Science Texas Senate poll (Paxton internal): https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/2105048317780771129?s=20 📊 Co/efficient Maine Senate poll: https://battlegrounds.coefficient.org/me/ 📊 YouGov Georgia poll: https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ttw_ga_20260915.pdf 📊 Marquette Law School Wisconsin poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2105347162850607610?s=20 📊 Big Data Poll Ohio Senate poll: https://www.bigdatapoll.com/blog/buckeye-state-poll-sherrod-brown-leads-jon-husted-for-us-senate-in-ohio/ 📊 Marist Poll Ohio: https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2104786340403675323?s=20 📰 The Argument polling article on wars and gas prices: https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/the-least-popular-war-since-vietnam The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com
Six weeks out from the elections, we lay out our first Senate forecasts and review the week's biggest poll drops. In this episode, we cover: Who wins the Senate six weeks out? Mark makes his calls in Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, and New Hampshire. Is Michigan slipping away from Mike Rogers? NYT/Siena has Abdul El-Sayed up 49% to 44%, and Suffolk has El-Sayed +7 points, his biggest lead since Labor Day. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race to Lean D, while Cook still rates it a toss-up. We break down rising gas and diesel prices, Trump's approval drag, and whether Dana Nessel's endorsement signals Democrats are finally uniting behind El-Sayed. How can two good pollsters be 13 points apart in Iowa? We analyze registered vs. likely voter samples and why a split-ticket could happen. Is there any chance for Ken Paxton in Texas? Talarico comes in leading all new polls in Texas again this week. We compare both to our own Overton Insights Texas poll and look at the NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll. We also ask whether quiet Republican voters could shrink the blue wave. Could Nithya Raman win LA by double digits? A new poll shows Raman ahead of Mayor Karen Bass, and she now leads on Kalshi 57% to 42%. Mark predicts a double-digit point win, with a potential Spencer Pratt endorsement of Bass. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up: NYT/Siena drops in Michigan, Maine, and New Hampshire 00:45 - We predict these key senate races 04:32 - Michigan polls this week 06:51 - Gas, diesel, and the Trump problem 09:58 - Is the Democratic coalition finally uniting behind El-Sayed? 11:37 - Susan Collins leads in NYT/Siena poll of Maine 14:23 - Iowa's 13-point polling gap: Marist vs. Emerson 17:01 - More Texas polls show Talarico ahead 21:20 - New Hampshire still looks competitive 23:55 - Are quiet Republicans hiding in the polls? 25:01 - LA mayor: Nithya Raman surges past Karen Bass 26:45 - Would Spencer Pratt really endorse Karen Bass? POLLS & LINKS: 📊 NYT/Siena Michigan Senate poll (9/15–9/22), El-Sayed 49, Rogers 44: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/michigan-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Suffolk Michigan Senate poll (9/16–9/20), El-Sayed 47, Rogers 40: https://www.suffolk.edu/-/media/suffolk/documents/academics/research-at-suffolk/suprc/polls/other-states/2026/9_22_2026_michigan_statewide_tables.pdf?la=en&hash=3846F455203B08DE085D08400622793E4DB74FB2 📊 Emerson Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michigan-2026-poll-el-sayed-and-rogers-locked-in-close-election/ 📊 Washington Post Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +3: https://www.washingtonpost.com/documents/08fa9b5e-43ac-456c-a706-4c33ec6506dc.pdf 📊 InsiderAdvantage Michigan Senate poll, El-Sayed +2: https://insideradvantage.com/mi-top-line-tabs/ 🎙 Nate Silver on gas and diesel prices: https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/2102491410029019311 📊 NYT/Siena Maine poll: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/maine-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Marist Iowa poll: https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2102249505387151488 📊 Emerson Iowa poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 NPR/Marist Texas poll: https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202609221131.pdf 📊 Emerson Texas poll: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2026-poll-talarico-and-paxton-in-dead-heat-abbott-maintains-edge/ 📊 Overton Insights Texas poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 NYT/Siena New Hampshire poll,: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/new-hampshire-us-senate-election-polls-2026.html 📊 Los Angeles mayoral runoff poll: https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2102736228298674447 The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll, alongside Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers be
The generic ballot is moving fast toward Democrats, and Mark's not sure whether to call it a wave or a tsunami. But here are three races Republicans surprisingly have a chance at winning! In this episode, we cover: Blue wave or blue tsunami? – National generic ballot polling has swung hard toward Democrats, with likely-voter samples running as high as D+11 to D+13 (Marquette). We break down why the shift tracks so closely with Trump's approval, why the $5,000 checks aren't moving Republican voters, and what the roughly 10-point statewide movement means with just weeks to go. Three competitive races Republicans should watch – In a D-leaning national environment, New Hampshire (Sununu vs Pappas), Oregon (Drazan vs. Kotek), and Minnesota (Tafoya vs Flanagan) are all much more competitive than many expected. We analyze why these states run on their own logic, plus a Maine deep dive on why Susan Collins is outperforming Trump by 20-plus points and holding a narrow lead over Troy Jackson. Iowa's split-ticket setup – We discuss Rob Sand's strong run for governor, the tighter Turek–Hinson Senate race, and why voters cross party lines for governors far more readily than for senators. Mark flags Sand as a name to watch for potential 2028 presidential nominees. SHOW NOTES: 00:00 - Coming up on today's episode… 00:28 - Blue wave or blue tsunami? 01:00 - Likely voters make it worse: Marquette D+13 and the D+8-to-10 read 01:45 - A 10-point swing in nearly every state 02:12 - How much of this is just Trump's approval? 04:10 - Why the $5,000 checks aren't working 05:49 - Three races Republicans shouldn't be competitive in: NH, Oregon, Minnesota 07:25 - Maine deep dive: Collins vs. Jackson favorability and the double-haters 09:40 - Mark's upset pick: Susan Collins wins again 09:57 - Cook moves New Hampshire to toss-up 10:27 - Mark takes a victory lap on Sununu 11:35 - The unexpected potential map: Texas blue, New Hampshire red 12:59 - Setting the stage in Iowa 13:22 - Rob Sand, candidate quality, and the governor's race 15:50 - A 2028 name to watch 17:01 - Why voters split tickets for governor but not Senate 18:14 - Does that cross-party habit reach the Texas governor's race? POLLS & LINKS: 📊 Overton Insights Texas Poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/ 📊 Marquette Law School Poll (likely voters, D+13): https://law.marquette.edu/poll/?n=@ 📊 Morning Consult generic ballot (D+4): https://intel.morningconsult.com/mc-content/trackers/donald-trump-congress-policy-republicans-polling 📊 Quantus Insights Maine Senate poll (Collins vs. Jackson): https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/quantus-survey-collins-and-jackson-even-in-maine-senate-race 📊 Emerson Iowa polling: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/iowa-2026-poll-hinson-leads-turek/ 📊 Cygnal Iowa poll: https://itrfoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ITR-Foundation-Poll-Toplines-09-11-2026.pdf 📰 Cook Political Report — New Hampshire Senate moved to toss-up: [LINK NEEDED] The Polling Alley features Mark Cunningham, the Overton Insights Poll Director and founder of the Beacon Poll. The Polling Alley is hosted by Overton Insights Poll Analyst, Olivia Michiels. Want to stay ahead of the data curve? Subscribe to The Polling Alley and join us as we decode the numbers behind the headlines. Follow us on X - @OvertonInsights Visit our website - OvertonInsights.com Explore our latest poll: https://overtoninsights.com/poll/september-2026/