Show Notes
Over 10.5 million Bitcoin are currently underwater. Everyone is panicking about a grueling bear market, but I see things differently. In today's Take, I explain why this recent drop actually signals deep liquidity and a historically accurate market bottom. The traditional four-year cycle is breaking. And as the national debt keeps doubling and the fiat printing won't stop, let's talk about why staying patient right now means everything.
Chapters
(00:00:00) - Another big dump & 10.5M BTC underwater
(00:01:25) - Capitulation signal that’s called every bear bottom
(00:02:22) - From 90% crashes to a muted bear
(00:03:10) - Liquidity, ETFs, and Bitcoin as collateral & SoV
(00:04:57) - Patience: the rarest Bitcoin skill
(00:05:28) - Exponential US debt and the long‑term Bitcoin lens
(00:06:15) - How past cycles felt vs how they look on the chart
(00:06:42) - From $15K to a $60K+ floor: what that implies
(00:07:10) - Self‑custody, ETFs, and why keys matter
(00:08:01) - Volatility vs risk in a fast‑growing asset
(00:09:21) - Max pain, hopelessness, and where opportunity lives
(00:10:08) - Blood in the streets & hunting one more dip
Affiliate Links
Become sovereign, hold your keys, be censorship resistant with the Bitbox hardware wallet. Get 5% off everything in the store with code GUY (Link: https://bitbox.swiss/guy/)
Get 10% off the best Bitcoin board game in the world, HODLUP! Or any of the other great games from The Free Market Kids! Use code GUY10 at checkout for 10% off your cart! (Link: https://www.freemarketkids.com/collections/games-1)
Host Links
Guy on Nostr (Link: http://tinyurl.com/2xc96ney)
Guy on X (Link: https://twitter.com/theguyswann)
Guy on Instagram (Link: https://www.instagram.com/theguyswann)
Guy on TikTok (Link: https://www.tiktok.com/@theguyswann)
Guy's Takes on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@GuysTake)
Guy Swann on YouTube (Link: https://www.youtube.com/@theguyswann)
Bitcoin Audible on X (Link: https://twitter.com/BitcoinAudible)
The Guy Swann Network Broadcast Room on Keet (Link: https://tinyurl.com/3na6v839)
References from the episode
Coindesk: tinyurl.com/26l8pqzbInvesting.com: tinyurl.com/2a2wubsq
BitBo: tinyurl.com/2anzw6g2
FT: tinyurl.com/23eglpaz
Reason: tinyurl.com/2687zybx
Yahoo Finance: tinyurl.com/27crbd6v
Fortune: tinyurl.com/25nvhgzt
CNBC: tinyurl.com/2ynpzq8v
Yellow: tinyurl.com/28e43f7o
FRED: tinyurl.com/2ddoz54u
Decrypt: tinyurl.com/2ylup3hm
CoinDesk: tinyurl.com/253cflvk
Guardian: tinyurl.com/2bynazae
Reuters: tinyurl.com/26p89zjm
Trading Key: tinyurl.com/2cceq344
Yahoo Finance: tinyurl.com/2boso8gs
Spark: tinyurl.com/2422njur
Yahoo Finance: tinyurl.com/29yn59sx
More from Bitcoin Audible
In this breakdown of the Ledger supply chain hack, I walk through how a tiny hardware implant turned legitimate hardware wallets into seed-stealing spy devices. I cover who’s actually at risk, why buying from resellers is a ticking time bomb, and what self-custody conditions are now non‑negotiable for serious bitcoiners. This isn’t the end of self-custody but a painful step we have to take to make it robust enough for the world we’re heading into.
I break down the biggest lie we've all deeply internalized about the economy: that prices are just supposed to go up. In a productive and advancing society, almost everything should actually be getting more affordable over time.
We finally stopped being lazy and brought a guest onto the Roundtable. Max Hillebrand joins Steve, Jeff, and I to talk about the absolute madness happening in the freedom tech space right now.
In this Take, I break down why the biggest AI labs, while deeply unprofitable sitting on massive future compute obligations, are racing toward trillion-dollar valuations. I explore how open-source competition, especially from China, is crushing their moat, and why that pushes them toward lobbying for fear-driven regulation, immunity, and government partnerships. Ultimately, I argue that the AI panic is about preserving a failing business model and building a centralized surveillance infrastructure, and why we shouldn’t be the ones paying their bill.
***"The dollar is going to continue to lose purchasing power. Bitcoin is going to continue to gain purchasing power. It's going to keep on happening over the rest of the century. We will at some point have enough people that have most of their wealth in bitcoin that they don't have anything else to spend and they will start to spend their bitcoin. And when they start to encounter more people like them on the other side of the transaction, they will no longer convert to some other currency on the merchant side for that transaction."