Show Notes
Episode 27: Do small capitalization stocks typically outperform in January? If so, can investors capitalize on that pattern? This trend is known as the January Effect. It's a popular idea because historical data show a sizable small cap premium versus large caps in January. Still, that's not a reason to avoid small cap stocks in other months, assuming you want to own them. Why not? Two reasons: (1) Nobody really knows why this "January Effect" exists—or whether it will continue, and (2) small caps, in general, have higher expected returns. Welcome to the wild world of odd stock market indicators, few of which seem to offer sensible investing signals. Another popular one is the Super Bowl Indicator: The winner of the Super Bowl supposedly determines how the stock market will perform that year. Silly idea, obviously, because this widely followed signal suggests that the market will deliver a positive return only in years when the NFC champion wins. There isn't any academic or logical explanation for this indicator. But since the correlation between the Super Bowl winner/loser and market returns appeared to be perfectly accurate when the indicator was first identified in the late 1970s, people started believing it. They probably should stop believing. In the 21st century, the indicator's success rate is 38%. Technical analysts also look for signals in data like moving averages, often referencing something called a "Golden Cross" or a "Death Cross" in a stock index. The former is when the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day moving average; the latter is the opposite. (A moving average is a constantly updated average price or level.) The S&P 500 experienced both a golden cross and a death cross in 2025. Which signal, if any, was right? The same question applies to all of these strange indicators … and others like men's underwear purchases, hemline lengths, and even sunspots. In Episode 27 of The Informed Investor, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, PhD, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, scrutinize the data and try to determine whether investors can benefit from any of these so-called signals. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey The Informed Investor, Episode 3 "Debts, Deficits, and Investing" https://youtu.be/AK66PrRFBTU?si=W5gJ-thCErETX7kV The Informed Investor on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCyJr6FFig-h1mA7rVP7Mbk0irFw2wA90 Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-dekinder-cfa-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/
More from The Informed Investor
Episode 62: Happy Halloween—or is it? At this moment, some investors are probably chewing their fingernails down to nubs as they try to digest the latest frightening financial headlines. "Are Global Stock Markets Headed for a Crash?" "The American Dream of Owning a Home Is Out of Reach for Many as Mortgage Rates Soar (Again)" "The US Debt Tops a Record-Shattering $40 Trillion. Yes, with a T." Eek!! Those are actual headlines from recent articles in the financial media (and just a small sample). Hundreds more are just waiting to scare the bejabbers out of you. But as an investor, if you're worried about the current state of the stock and bond markets, the economy, or the latest geopolitical hot spots, headlines are the last place to look for reassurance. Many, if not most, are designed to make you afraid. The facts, on the other hand, will often do just the opposite. In Episode 62, a special Halloween episode of The Informed Investor podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, dress up … and then dress down the headline writers of America to help investors deflate the fear factor. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: "Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life" Order the new book by Dimensional Founder David Booth https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0GPDHGH8K/?maas=maas_adg_2F97289929AB0BA26D806A1F81D55D66_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER Subscribe to the Stay Calm Investing Newsletter https://www.staycalminvesting.com/newsletter?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor For US audiences: Select videos are available as part of an opportunity for CFP® and Investments & Wealth Institute® professionals to earn continuing education (CE) credits https://www.dimensional.com/financial-professionals/ce-credit-experience-d360?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor "The Informed Investor" on YouTube The Informed Investor - YouTube Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-d-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor
Episode 61: The allure of index funds, such as broad diversification, low costs, and market-matching returns, may seem undeniable. But recent "reconstitution" in the indexes tracked by such funds tells a different story—one every investor should understand.
Episode 60: Every two years, millions of investors probably ask themselves (and their advisors) whether looming elections demand changes to their investment portfolios. It's an understandable sentiment—and one that demands discussion. But the most important conclusion from these conversations should never change: Since the data doesn't show any strong connection between election results and stock market performance, it's best to vote with your ballot, not your portfolio. No matter how you slice, dice, or take a hatchet to the data, factor in your own political proclivities, or scream about what you think is totally wrong or right about the candidates, market prices have already incorporated all that information (and thousands of other developments, including numerous economic indicators) as investors consider what to do next. This is a well-researched theory of how capital markets work. The implication is that the stock market doesn't really care what you think about this year's midterm elections or the next presidential horse race. Need supporting evidence? Fourteen of 17 presidential terms since 1929, across administrations with both Democratic and Republican chief executives, ended with positive returns for the S&P 500 Index. (S&P data © 2026 S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC, a division of S&P Global.) Investors shouldn't ignore elections, of course. But their portfolios may benefit from standing pat as politics rile and emotions rock and roll. In Episode 60 of The Informed Investor podcast, Dimensional's Mark Gochnour, Head of Global Client Services, Wes Crill, Senior Client Solutions Director, and Jake DeKinder, Head of Client Communications, interrogate common myths about the impact of elections on markets and offer sensible answers as investors head to the polls. LINKS FROM TODAY'S EPISODE: "Stay Calm: Learn to Embrace Uncertainty in Investing and Life" Order the new book by Dimensional Founder David Booth https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0GPDHGH8K/?maas=maas_adg_2F97289929AB0BA26D806A1F81D55D66_afap_abs&ref_=aa_maas&tag=maas&smid=ATVPDKIKX0DER Subscribe to the Stay Calm Investing Newsletter https://www.staycalminvesting.com/newsletter?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor The Informed Investor: Feedback Survey https://www.dimensional.com/us-en/informed-investor-survey?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor "The Informed Investor" on YouTube The Informed Investor - YouTube Dimensional Fund Advisors Shorts on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@dimensionalfundadvisors/shorts Mark Gochnour on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-gochnour-9a23598a/ Wes Crill on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/wes-crill-77a49417/ Jake DeKinder on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/jake-d-4105b98/ Learn more at https://www.dimensional.com/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor For US audiences: Select videos are available as part of an opportunity for CFP® and Investments & Wealth Institute® professionals to earn continuing education (CE) credits https://www.dimensional.com/financial-professionals/ce-credit-experience-d360?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=informed_investor
Episode 59: What happens when you rethink how financial advice is delivered—and how an industry comes together?
Episode 58: Any financial professional who joined the industry a week after Black Monday—when the stock market suffered its biggest single-day loss—knows something about investment discipline.