Season 2 Episode 5 - How the United States Would Fight China: The Risks of Pursuing a Rapid Victory with Franz-Stefan Gady

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Anthony Vinci, author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: The Future of Espionage and the Battle to Save America, to examine how intelligence has moved from a government function to something that now permeates everyday life. Vinci traces the evolution from earlier intelligence eras to what he describes as a fourth revolution, where AI, data, and global competition with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran are reshaping espionage in real time. The conversation explores how this new environment blurs the line between state and society, why individuals have become both targets and participants in intelligence collection, and whether the U.S. intelligence community is prepared for a landscape that is expanding faster than its traditional structures.

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Madeline Hart, co-author of Mobilize: How to Reboot the American Industrial Base and Stop World War III, to examine the argument that the United States is already in a kind of undeclared emergency and whether its defense industrial base is prepared for what comes next. Hart traces how the U.S. moved from a system that once powered wartime production and Cold War competition to one that is increasingly disconnected from the speed and innovation of the commercial economy, and explains why rebuilding that link is central to deterrence. The conversation also explores the growing role of nontraditional defense companies, the tension between innovation and bureaucracy, and what it would take to move from a peacetime footing to something more responsive.

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Seth G. Jones, author of The American Edge: The Military Tech Nexus and the Sources of Great Power Dominance, to examine whether the United States is prepared for an era of renewed great-power competition. Jones explains how military dominance has historically depended on the relationship between technological innovation and industrial capacity, and why he believes the U.S. defense industrial base is still operating on a peacetime footing even as China rapidly expands its military capabilities. The conversation also explores the role of America’s private technology sector—and whether deeper partnerships between the Pentagon and innovative firms are essential to maintaining U.S. military advantage.

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Anna Arutunyan, author of Rebel Russia: Dissent and Protest from the Tsars to Navalny, to explore Russian history through the lens of rebellion and dissent. Arutunyan traces the recurring dance between rebels and rulers—from the Tsars to the Soviet era to the present—and explains why uprisings so often appear to fail, yet still leave lasting marks on the Russian state. Drawing on centuries of history and her own experience reporting on Russia’s descent into authoritarianism, she examines whether dissent is a crisis-driven phenomenon or a persistent undercurrent, and how individual leaders and entrenched systems together shape Russia’s cycles of repression and reform.

Today on Coffee & Conflict, Joshua Huminski is joined by Emma Ashford, author of First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World, to unpack what it means for the United States to operate in an international system it no longer dominates alone. Ashford traces how post–Cold War triumphalism gave way to today’s multipolar reality, explains when the U.S. unipolar moment truly began to fade, and lays out her case for a more pragmatic grand strategy rooted in what she calls “realist internationalism.” The conversation explores how this framework differs from both traditional realism and liberal internationalism, and what it would ask Washington to prioritize—and reconsider—as global power continues to diffuse.