Conférence - David Nesvorný : Dynamical Origins and Properties of the Near-Earth Object Population

Alessandro Morbidelli Chaire Chaire Formation planétaire : de la Terre aux exoplanètes Collège de France Année 2025-2026

David Nesvorný Conférence - David Nesvorný : Dynamical Origins and Properties of the Near-Earth Object Population

David Nesvorný Southwest Research Institute, USA

Résumé

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are a transient population of small bodies with orbits in or near the terrestrial planet region. They represent an intermediate stage in the dynamical evolution of asteroids and comets - originating in the main belt or trans-Neptunian scattered disk - and ending with planetary impacts, solar disintegration, or ejection from the Solar System. We present an accurate physical model of NEOs developed by tracking the dynamical evolution of main-belt asteroids and comets onto NEO orbits. The model is calibrated using data from the Catalina Sky Survey (CSS) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Results show a size-dependent contribution from the main belt, with the ν6 and 3:1 resonances accounting for ~80% of faint NEOs. The debiased NEO albedo distribution is well fit by a sum of two Rayleigh distributions with scale parameters of 3% and 17%. We estimate 830±60 NEOs with diameters >1 km and 20,000±2,000 with diameters >140 m. The Earth impact probability for a >140 m object over the next millennium is ~5%. Compared to a direct-delivery model from the main belt, the CSS-detected small NEOs show an excess of low-eccentricity orbits between 1–1.6 au. This excess may result from tidal disruption of large NEOs during close encounters with the Earth.