Show Notes
As I’m sure you know, it is all but impossible to destroy gold. Yes, yes, nuclear explosions, blah blah, mercury, aqua regia, but to all intents and purposes gold is permanent. It’s been here since before the earth itself, and it’ll be about long after it’s gone, shining away. That also means that all the gold that has ever been mined still exists. Some of it has been lost, of course, but it’s still there somewhere, even if it’s sitting in sunken Spanish galleon off the coast of Tobago. There are just under 7 billion ounces of gold in the world, and just over 8 billion people, so about 4/5 of an ounce per person. Until the gold rushes of the 19th century, there were roughly 2/5 of an ounce per person.As you can see by the chart below there is now more gold per capita than ever before. What’s really interesting, however, is how closely cumulative gold supply tracks global population growth. The two rise at remarkably similar rates over centuries. Gold supply expands slowly, organically and roughly in line with humanity itself. No central bank planned it that way. Right there is why gold is nature’s money. But there are some changes afoot. Population growth is slowing rapidly. It is actually going backwards in some parts of the world. The Matt Ridley argument is that this is a result of prosperity. Merryn Somerset Webb thinks it’s even more specific than that. She blames smart phones. She may have a point. South Korea is perhaps the most advanced smart phone nation. When I went there in 2015 I remember thinking that, technologically, it was a good 10 years ahead of Western Europe. Recently we learn it has the slowest population growth of the lot. Annual gold mining supply is at record levels, however: 3,600 tonnes last year. Does this mean gold per capita is set to increase? Probably but there is a big but and it looks like this. How about that for a table? No new major discoveries - 2 million ounces or more - in 2023 or 2024. As far as I know there were three in 2025 - in China, in Saudi Arabia and in Iran. But look at the trend. We have been below the 10-discovery threshold since 2009. Discoveries peaked in 1995. The long-term implications of this are enormous. If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Gold is not like other commodities, copper, oil or wheat, say, where annual production dramatically affects price because so much of what was produced previously has already been consumed. Almost all the gold ever mined still exists somewhere, as i say. But mining supply still matters at the margin. The collapse in discoveries has not yet translated into falling production because it takes such a long time to bring a deposit into production. The average time from discovery to production is now around 17 years. But we are now roughly 17 years on from the late 2000s, when the discovery rate began to fall off a cliff. In other words, we may not be far away from the point where the collapse in discoveries finally starts feeding through into stagnating or declining mine supply. And unlike previous cycles, there do not appear to be dozens of giant new deposits waiting quietly in the wings. (Obviously, a higher gold price offsets some of this because lower-grade ore becomes economic to mine.) Here is the long-term production chart. You can see how supply has largely plateaued over the last ten years . Perhaps that also helps explain why, after 50,000 years of use (yes, that figure is correct), demand for gold from individuals, institutions and central banks remains so strong. Lots of interviews to share with you this week I’ve been promoting the release of The Secret History of Gold in the US. First up with my US BFF, Tom Woods On Financial Sense with Jim Puplava (audio only) On Kitco News with J
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Something a little different this week. On Monday I gave a talk for UK Finance called Making Sense of It All, about the multiple contradictions at work int he economy: rising bond yields yet equity markets grinding higher, huge investment in AI despite limited profit, and the growing squeeze on the materials needed to build AI infrastructure. (Many thanks to Duncan and Rhiannon for inviting me to speak). I’ve taken the deck and put together an online version - the first time I’ve ever attempted such a thing - I hope you will find it useful. The transcript is available above. Until next time, Dominic If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
After an extraordinary run which started in 2022 below US$20/oz and ended in January this year at US$122, silver has been working its way downwards. We have had a correction of almost 50%. Today we’re at $58/oz having been as low as $55 in July. We are almost certainly going to go back and retest that low, I would say, and silver is very much in a downtrend. $50 has been a huge line in the sand that goes all the way back to 1980 and for decades silver could not get above that number. Then, late last year, it cut through it like butter. What was resistance becomes support is one of the technical analysts’ guiding mantras, and there is every chance $50 will do just that. However, if there is one thing I have learnt about silver over the years it is that has an unrivalled propensity to let you down, which is I suppose my way of saying it could quite easily go a lot lower. It’s silver after all. However, the fundamentals favour silver. The market remains in deficit. The Silver Institute’s latest World Silver Survey forecasts a 46.3 million ounce deficit in 2026, which would be the sixth consecutive annual deficit. Never mind jewellery and investment demand, silver finds an enormous amount of industrial demand (~60% of annual demand), especially in electronics, because it is such a good conductor of electricity. The sudden increase from solar panel demand a few years back is thought to have triggered the recent run, although manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in each panel. Bear markets are a time to build. As an investor, you research the companies you might want to buy - there is no need necessarily to rush out and buy them - start building positions when nobody else wants them, make the purchases on your own terms. There is no need to rush. With that in mind, I am going to tell you about my largest silver position today. I even have an interview with the boss. It was a big winner for readers in the last cycle going from below 30c north of C$3, rising more than 1,000%. With the falls in the silver price it has now come back more than 50%, and I think it is worth taking a look. Its CEO is both young and competent and he is growing the company in an admirable way so that in 3 to 5 years time you are going to see something much bigger.
It’s my pleasure to sit down with with the man who “gold pilled” me back in the day with his book, The Collapse of the Dollar. James Turk, founder of GoldMoney, has spent five decades working in banking, finance and investments, making the case that gold is not an investment or another commodity, but money in its purest form. We discuss why he believes the US can no longer repeat the Volcker rescue of the 1980s, the relationship between sound money and liberty, and why he expects gold eventually to return to the centre of global commerce as technology changes the way money moves. James’ latest book is Money and Liberty and you can find his IEA paper here. This interview was brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
Good Sunday to you, We have a fantastic interview for you today. I sit down with legendary Canadian investor Frank Giustra to discuss gold, government debt and why he believes the world is entering the most dangerous geopolitical period of our lifetime. You can either watch the video or listen as a podcast via Spotify et al.Frank made his fortune in mining and natural resources, before founding Lionsgate Films, the world’s biggest independent film studio. His track record as a businessman and investor is superlative. We discuss why he believes this is no ordinary metals bull market, the accelerating shift by central banks from government debt into physical gold, the risk that another round of quantitative easing could trigger a dollar crisis, and whether gold may ultimately need to be revalued higher, dramaticically higher. We also touch on China, financial repression, critical minerals and why, of everything Frank owns today, gold remains the asset he is most excited about. Money Markets & More is the interview series from Dominic Frisby, exploring money, markets, gold, economics and the ideas shaping the world.🥇 The programme is brought to you by The Pure Gold Company If you live in a third world country such as the UK, I urge you to own gold or silver. The pound will be further devalued, as will the euro and dollar. The bullion dealer I use and recommend is The Pure Gold Company. They deliver to the UK, the US, Canada and Europe. More here.
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