The Art of War, Closing The Gap, Six Finger Discount

Last time Albania blew up it was because the entire country had become embroiled in a Ponzi scheme, led by a gypsy soothsayer. That incident was generally classed as a Civil War, with breakaway militias staking out territory across the country, after about a fifth of the nation's supposed wealth evaporated overnight. The leader of the opposition at the time? Edi Rama. Now, thirty years on, Edi Rama is still a made man in Albanian politics, and has been happily passing the Premiership back and forth with his rightist rivals ever since. But almost overnight, it looks like this epochal politician may be gone for good. And Europe's most laggard state might be about to fully break with its post-Communist era - with all kinds of geopolitical implications. Beyond the manifestations in France, this week we're taking a look at the European riots, from the back of the bus. France blowing up is important. Albania and Spain going at the same time? It's all a function of how much steam the global pressure cooker is generating, says Philip Pilkington.

We've been tracking the story for weeks, and now the authorities are waking up to it. The CFTC, the US commodities markets watchdog, is investigating oil futures bets that appeared to be timed perfectly to profit from President Trump's statements related to the Iran War. There is an obvious domestic political angle to the return of the Democrats to power after the midterms But there are longer term implications, too: breakdowns of price discovery, untrustworthy markets, rampant corruption among the US political elites — it all speaks to a Third World-isation of their political economy. Meanwhile, after chivalrously riding to the defence of Trump's targeted oil price, the Saudis are now taking a pasting at the hands of the Houthis. This puts the Saudi economy itself at risk: politically, it is unable to devalue the Riyal. But without sufficient oil exports, its trade account would have to be financed somehow: either by debt or selling Treasuries. It all signals coming political instability in the Kingdom. Is this most rock-solid of Gulf regimes finally on the slip-slide? All of which still leaves a question dangling: why did MBS make such a foolish decision to start this war? Was he given bad advice? Or was he, in fact, 'tricked', by a sophisticated intelligence operation?

A record-breaking week down in Hormuz, where twelve oil tankers have been hit in a matter of days. Back on Wall Street, the cost of oil has pipped $100 a barrel. Last week, a third US aircraft carrier set sail for the region. It could mean that three carriers are in the region as early as the end of October.

What can we know about the oil that gets through Hormuz? Turns out most of what we know filters through a single data point: a company called Kpler. Before the war, Kpler's numbers were solid. They combined transponder tracking with loading and unloading records, following each ship payload from port to port. But then the shadow fleet tankers switched their transponders off. No one reports their cargo any more. Now, Kpler has to fall back on satellite images. And those are redacted by the Pentagon... Now, says Philip Pilkington, we're all in the woods looking for Yetis - and we can't tell whether we've hit a real Sasquatch, or just a guy in a woollen suit. Brent was $70 to 80 when everyone agreed the Strait was shut. It's now above $90. In July, 'Oil Glut 1.0"' knocked about $30 off the price. But 'Glut 2.0' has only moved it by about $10 - well within ordinary weekly volatility. Does the market no longer believing the people pushing these stories?

Lately, European leaders seem panicked. By the beginning of July, the EU had begun acting in an increasingly assertive, confident way. On China – they announced new anti-dumping, anti-subsidy measures. On Ukraine, they pushed forward with plans to release even more materiel to the front. On the question of democracy and centralisation, they were happy to roll over the Romanians, and put their thumb on the scale in Hungary. Now it’s call time at the casino. The cards are being turned over – and once they lose their shirts, the continent’s leaders are still going to need the parking deposit to pay their way out of the building. A trade war with China. America stepping back. An increasingly unstable game of missile ping pong with Russia. An energy shock coming up the pike. Winter in a few weeks. Ursula & co now find themselves sitting amidst a perfect storm of bad bets. How will they ride this out? As the security situation weakens, will Europe revert to ‘securitisation’ to bolster its faltering power? *** Multipolarity is a long-running alt-geopolitics brand, starring the economist Philip Pilkington, and the journalist Andrew Collingwood. In January 2023, we began with the slogan ‘Charting the rise of the multipolar world order’. And we’ve hardly struggled for material since. Each week, our duo take three key stories affecting the global balance of power, and explain what each means for the coming multipolar era. Increasingly, they’re joined by guests from across the spectrum: technologist Steve Hsu, journalist Malcom Kyeyune, strategic analyst Amerikanets, or academics like Warwick Powell and Glenn Diesen. You can follow us on X, get into our lively Substack with the weekly Multipolarity Brief – a one-stop shop for deep analysis – and Philip Pilkington’s bimonthly column. You can also get our premium subscriber-only podcast episodes on either Patreon or Substack. Please like, subscribe, and be excellent to each other. Twitter Patreon Substack