Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer

02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields

05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate

07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks

08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility

11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom

14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes

17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break

18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending

20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag

23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup

25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?

26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention

31:20 Korea Silicon Boom

35:43 Europe Under Pressure

39:25 Middle East Outlook

43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices

48:34 China Oil Strategy

52:10 Big Calls Wrap