What kind of Crisis is Approaching?

Blain’s Morning Porridge 23rd October 2026 “I am going to make you an offer you can’t refuse.” Elon Musk is the richest man in history. With great wealth comes great power and influence. How wisely is Musk wielding that power? Switching off Starlink in Ukraine, threatening Europe with “devastating consequences” on satellite broadband, and whatever deals he doing on the regulation of his companies all beg closer examination. He raises questions about his accountability, and whose interests he serves. Key Takeaways: Extreme wealth is no longer confined to domestic power – Elon Musk shows it can be wielded on the geopolitical stage. His control of Starlinkt, and dollar political funding power is not balanced by accountability. Starlink is now shown to be a Strategic Resource. Musk has demonstrated its power and that he controls it – and it’s in his and America’s interest to limit others from having it. Europe needs to build its technological independence from the USA. Digital and Space sovereignty is critical, especially as Trump, Musk, the Art of the Deal and America First collide in the new America’s stance to the world. Tesla and Space X will shortly merge, giving Musk an enormous payoff, further increasing his wealth without having to deliver on the targets once set him. It deserves closer oversight by government. The points discussed this morning are opinions. Feel free to believe whatever you still do about Musk.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 21st October 2026 “Pride cometh before the fall…” It really does feel the Atlantic Ocean got much, much wider. As Europe struggles with riots and populism, financiers in the USA dismiss Yoorp as irrelevant, and think their economy is doing just great, fuelled by the AI boom and rising earnings. What they miss is the vulnerability of the economy to a debt shock and rising Treasury refinancing risk. Key Takeaways: America’s apparent economic strength masks considerable financial vulnerability – the USA’s high government debt, escalating and persistent deficits, and rising refinancing risk leave it exposed to excessive bond market risk in the event of any loss of confidence. The economies of Europe and the USA diverged after 2008 – creating an impression Europe will remain mired in ongoing sovereign debt crises and lethargic growth. That is reinforced by Europe’s capital markets being diverse and subscale, while the US has benefited from plentiful access to capital (much of it European!) though its highly efficient capital markets. Strip out the scale of US debt, then the scale and pace of the US and European economies are not that different. The size of the AI infrastructure boom dwarfs the risks from other parts of the US economy – making any AI downturn a highly significant risk. Treasury Refinancing risk is the biggest risk to the USA – if inflation remains high and yields continue to rise, the scale of quarterly refinancings to simply stand still will rise. Eventually… something breaks. With 25% of the Treasury market held overseas, the USA’s political stability, and competency to address crisis, are core issues for foreign buyers. If post mid-term gridlock and lawfare erupts after the Midterms it will change sentiment – particularly where the USA is no longer seen as aligned with the core values of Europe. The potential for political disruption, an equity correction, and rising treasury yields to create an “imperfect storm” around the US economy for the remainder of Trump’s term is high.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 20th October 2026 “Do you hear the people sing? Singing a song of angry men.” The Russians are masters of Maskirovka, the art of distraction, disinformation and misdirection. After sabotaging the transatlantic economy, the next stage is to destabilise Europe and break its resilience by fermenting social unrest, political conflict, and riots. The current waves of protest are likely to erupt across Europe with the potential of triggering a bond crisis, are deliberate and part of a hostile plan to remove Europe from the board. Key Takeaways: A European Sovereign Bond Crisis is a rising risk as riots hit market confidence and cause rates to rise and growth to stall. Genuine social grievances leave Europe vulnerable to Russian manipulation and misdirection – seeking to undermine European unity, diminish support for Ukraine and rearmament, and further split NATO. Russia is indifferent exploing Hard Right and Hard Left grievances to achieve its destabilisation goals. Immigration or Palestine are divisive topics which ferment dispute and conflict. How European Governments counter the deliberate destabilisation is critical, and given the vulnerabilities of Germany, Spain, Italy and the UK to populist parties, will be difficult. If a bond market crisis emerges, the ECB could face distracted European politics and could struggle to contain a chaotic bond market where yields rise and confidence breaks down. The social cohesion of Europe is under threat – and that’s the economic asset that underlies the Euro and the European polity. A crisis will impact European markets, growth, inflation and further fuel political instability.

Blain’s Morning Porridge 19th October 2026 “A walk in the woods will change the way you respond to the everyday enshitification of everything” Markets have a habit of watching the wrong things – which why they are repeatedly shocked by No-See-Ums. Perhaps, the real issue isn’t how economies miss growth or inflation targets, but how miserable or unhappy the electorate becomes? Traditional politics are failing in the democratic nations, while populism is set to create wider instabilities. Maybe it’s time to go “forest bathing” in the autumnal glory and focus on resiliency and satisfaction? Key Takeaways: The real economic crisis is being felt at household level. Markets focus on inflation, rates and outlook in terms of prices, but rising costs and diminished opportunities explain crashing consumer confidence. The political unrest – so visible in France and India – highlight the growing sense of public disillusionment with political failure and corrupt bureaucracy. Populism offers easy answers, but, as Trump is demonstrating, ineffective solutions. The repair of failing state infrastructure and services is long-term while blocked opportunities for all workers (from young to mature) is breeding resentment. Political incompetence will reduce economic strength – while resilient and adaptable nations will exhibit a greater ability to absorb shocks, innovate and adapt themselves out of crisis. The USA’s loss of global standing illustrates incompetency, while Ukraine is example of resiliency. The War in Iran demonstrates how Iran is winning because the USA has failed to achieve its objectives, while Ukraine demonstrates how it is winning by frustrating Russia’s objectives. Social cohesion is a factor in the strength of nations. Political competency and household stability underpin successful economies – and are more important long-term than quarterly earnings or month-to-month growth. This is going to be another… interesting week. Breathe deep. Earnings reports, European inflation and a host of other data lie ahead, but who knows what else is about leap out and mug us all? Continued/ go to www.morningporridge.com for access to the full story. If you subscribe to the full Morning Porridge you get the email every morning and links to videos and podcasts…

Blain’s Morning Porridge – October 16th, 2026 “Markets are not smart or intelligent, but they are very efficient at converging on the wrong conclusions.” It’s been a bad week in the AI markets. Suddenly folk are waking up to the growing gap between inflated expectations and disappointing revenues, and the risks which include competition. It’s a pattern that reoccurs repeatedly in markets. The name to watch will be CoreWeave – illustrating what can go wrong when blithe assumptions about fantabulous upside ignore the rules of financial commonsense. A default or troubling rescue is on the cards. Key Takeaways AI is a key technology of the future, but the path to riches seldom runs smooth. The AI Investment Bubble is running well ahead of commercial adoption as businesses figure out how best to harness its power effectively and economically. CoreWeave is the potential catalyst for an AI reset. It is the canary-in-the-coal mine showing how revenue growth is failing to cover rising debt costs. Strong demand for AI Services in a competitive and price-inelastic market (remember the Chinese do AI too!), does not guarantee success when capex, opex and debt costs are rising – Accounting 101. Nvidia’s infamous circularity financing of chip sales to datacentres could magnify losses. Nvidia is down nearkly $300 bln this week! It highlights the risks of being an investor in what you supply – making it a leverage play on GPU demand (which is a function of price and competition)! A collapse in Chips could trigger a reset across the private capital markets based on the number of deals secured on chips, compute and infrastructure, now on the books of captive insurance firms.