EP 22 | European Heat, Dry Rivers, and Virgin Media's £22 Billion Question
Credit Lens: Europe & BeyondShow Notes
Europe's rivers are running low, and the credit implications are running deeper than the earnings calls suggest. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon take it on in the latest Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond, joined by Wayne Jambawo, Financial Analyst at Octus.
The conversation opens on why the Rhine and Danube dropping to record lows is not a chemicals story alone (02:06), before working through the second-order hits across ice cream manufacturers, packaging, care homes, and any issuer with unhedged power exposure (03:45). Wayne flags Currenta and points at Lanxess, BASF, and INEOS as names where the market is still underpricing recurrence risk after four droughts in nine years (05:23).
The back half turns to Virgin Media O2, the 200 million pound dividend that landed days after the senior unsecured tanked, and where the vendor financing notes actually sit in the waterfall (17:41).
A look at two questions credit professionals should be asking now: is climate a recurring cash flow risk, and what does the VMed cap stack really recover? ----more---- Hosted by Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon Guest: Wayne Jambawo, Financial Analyst, Octus Produced by Charlie Hall Edited by Fawaz Muhammed A Production of The Octus Podcast Network
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Aston Martin has survived seven bankruptcy proceedings in a century, and the eighth chapter is now being written in a bondholder co-op agreement. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon are joined by Rafi Rees, Credit Analyst at Octus, to work through the iconic British carmaker's latest brush with distress.
Private credit has found a new frontier, and it looks a lot like a football stadium. Phoebe Appenteng and Katie McMahon take it on in the latest Credit Lens: Europe & Beyond, joined by Oscar Laurikka, Head of Europe Private Credit and Deal Origination at Octus. The conversation opens on why private capital is flowing into European sport, from league-level infrastructure and media rights to asset-backed loans against stadiums and parachute payments (01:37). Laurikka works through why CVC and its peers still avoid direct club stakes, and how Germany's 50-plus-one rule is pushing investors toward hybrid capital structures (07:44). The second half turns to Grupo Antolin's Spanish recapitalization, where bondholders face a 32.5% haircut while banks get par reinstatement and the family keeps equity (11:21). Phoebe and Katie also weigh the credibility of the 2029 business plan against four consecutive years of missed EBITDA margin targets (14:35). The episode closes with a higher or lower ranking of British prime ministers by tenure (18:14).