Australia's Biggest Property Crash in 40 Years Has Already Begun | Property Experts
The Follio Property PodcastShow Notes
Book Your FREE Investment Assessment 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/📊 National Investment Report: https://441711975.hs-sites-ap1.com/follio-property-podcast-content-subscriber?utm_source=YouTube&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_id=Episode+73Australia's property market is on the edge of its biggest correction in 40 years and most investors are still not prepared, as explained by the property expert Leith Van Onselen. He reveals exactly why falling borrowing capacity, poorly timed tax policy, and a looming recession are set to push property prices down by up to 10% across major capitals.The Australian real estate market has reached a dangerous inflection point. With the RBA at its highest cash rate in 15 years and investor borrowing capacity slashed by up to 30%, the widening gap between soaring property prices and the real capacity to pay cannot hold. The capital gains tax, property Australia reforms and negative gearing changes have landed at the worst possible moment, piling more downward pressure onto a market already at its cyclical peak.Australia is tracking dangerously close to New Zealand's trajectory, where identical policy changes triggered a sharp property crash before the incoming government reversed course. The 25-year supercycle of rising property values relative to incomes is likely over. Brisbane sits at its most overvalued level in 50 years relative to other capitals. The Melbourne property market is the cheapest major capital in 50 years. Consumer sentiment is near 50-year lows, construction costs are up 40% since the pandemic, and rental vacancy rates have hit their lowest point in recorded history.What you'll learn in this episode: ✅ Why Australia is heading for its biggest property correction in 40 years ✅ How capital gains tax and negative gearing changes have crushed investor borrowing capacity by up to 30%✅ The New Zealand precedent and what it signals for Australian property investment in 2025 ✅ Brisbane vs Melbourne: which capital is dangerously overvalued and which presents the hidden opportunity ✅ Why surging construction costs are deepening the rental crisis and stifling new supply ✅ What RBA rate cuts will and will not save for property investorsTimestamps:00:00 - Australia's Biggest Property Correction in 40 Years01:35 - Capital Gains Tax & Negative Gearing: The Policy Shock04:25 - The New Zealand Precedent12:21 - What Actually Moves Property Prices17:07 - Credit Availability & Borrowing Capacity Collapse19:14 - RBA Rate Cuts & Recession Risk24:29 - Brisbane vs Melbourne: Which Market Wins?33:15 - Is This Worse Than 2018?45:48 - Rental Crisis & Construction Collapse50:04 - Wrap Up & Part 2 PreviewFollow Leith Van Onselen:YouTube: @Leithvo Business: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/About The Follio Property PodcastEach week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/📩 Contact Us: [email protected]📲 Follow Us on Social:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypodSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLywLachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandeshttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/#AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #AustralianHousingMarket #NegativeGearing #CapitalGainsTax #FollioPropertyPodcast
More from The Follio Property Podcast
Is residential dead? Scott O'Neill reveals why Australian property market volume is down 80% in residential while commercial property Australia is booming, and why yield matters more than ever for property investing Australia. Get Access to PropStac 👉 https://propstac.com.au/?signup=1&ref=episode114 Looking to invest 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_114 In this Follio Property Podcast episode, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty sit down with Scott O'Neill to unpack the post Budget shift in the Australian property market. Scott explains why residential property Australia no longer stacks up for many investors after tax and policy changes, and why we are seeing a once in a generation move toward commercial property Australia. You will learn which assets are holding up including large format retail and industrial, why secondary office is the worst market in Australia right now, what the New Zealand case study tells us about rents and the Australia rental crisis, and how mum and dad investors can avoid high risk tenant traps. If you are focused on property investing in Australia for yield and long term stability, this is your playbook for what to buy, what to avoid and how to do due diligence. What We Cover In This Episode: ✅ Why residential property Australia volume is down 80 percent after the Budget ✅ The once in a generation shift to commercial property Australia for yield ✅ Why commercial is untouched and doing 100M a month ✅ New Zealand playbook and what it signals for the Australia rental crisis ✅ Best vs worst assets: large format retail vs secondary office ✅ How smaller investors can enter commercial safely with syndicates and due diligence Timestamps 00:00 The resi to commercial shift, in one grab 01:32 Why residential volumes have fallen 80% 02:23 The once in a generation move to commercial 04:12 The New Zealand play: no CGT, no stamp duty 06:56 The best and worst commercial asset classes 08:31 Where mum and dad investors get caught 13:53 Commercial versus bonds, and the demand surge 15:48 What the GFC teaches us about commercial falls 20:57 Inside the buyer's agent boom 39:27 Quickfire round Follow Scott O’Neill: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/scott_oneill_/ Business: https://www.rethinkinvesting.com.au/?r=0 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@rethink_investing About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian property market | Commercial property Australia | Residential property Australia | Australia rental crisis #AustralianPropertyMarket #CommercialPropertyAustralia #ResidentialPropertyAustralia #PropertyInvestingAustralia #AustraliaRentalCrisis #FollioPropertyPodcast #ScottONeill #PropertyInvestment #CommercialProperty #RentalCrisis #AustralianProperty #PropertyMarketAustralia
There is more than one way to win in the Australian property market, but after the 2026 Budget only cash flow ready strategies survive. In this episode Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty preview Scott O'Neill, Jack Henderson, Ben Kingsley and Sammy Gordon to help you pick the right property strategy for your goals. Free Access to PropStac 👉 https://propstac.com.au/?signup=1&ref=episode113 Speak with an Advisor 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_113 If you are investing in property in Australia right now, this breakdown of Australian property investing strategies is essential viewing. You will learn how commercial property Australia investors think about yield and tenancy risk, how value add property projects like granny flats and knockdown rebuilds create equity, why blue chip property in capital cities suits long term buy and hold investors, and why regional property markets appeal to rentvestors chasing cash flow property and fast equity growth. Built for buyers, investors and first home buyers who want data led property portfolio strategy, not hype. What we cover in this Episode: ✅ Commercial vs residential property and who should avoid commercial under $2M ✅ Value add property through granny flats, renovations and knockdown rebuilds ✅ Blue chip buy and hold for capital city growth and risk mitigation ✅ Regional investing for yields, equity recycling and large portfolios ✅ How the 2026 Budget pushed every strategy toward cash flow Timestamps: 00:00 Four guests, four property strategies preview 02:10 Why there is more than one way to win 05:25 Scott O'Neill on commercial property post budget 08:40 Why commercial needs $2M plus to work 12:15 Yield vs risk in regional commercial assets 16:30 Jack Henderson on value add and granny flats 21:45 Ben Kingsley on blue chip buy and hold 27:20 Sammy Gordon on emerging markets and high volume 33:10 Post budget shift, cash flow is now king 37:05 How PropStack tracks your strategy and numbers About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian property investing strategies | Commercial property Australia risks | Value add property Australia | Blue chip property investment | Regional property market yields #AustralianPropertyMarket #PropertyInvestingAustralia #CommercialPropertyAustralia #ValueAddProperty #BlueChipProperty #RegionalPropertyAustralia #PropertyStrategy #CashFlowProperty #RealEstateAustralia #AustralianRealEstate #HousingMarketAustralia #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #FollioProperty
Is property still worth it? Bryce and Ren from Equity Mates join the Follio Property Podcast to break down property vs shares in Australia after the Budget and why smart money is shifting for long term wealth. Free Access to PropStac 👉 https://propstac.com.au/?signup=1&ref=episode112 Speak with an Advisor 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_112 In this Follio Property Podcast episode, Lachlan Delahunty & Reece Beddall sit down with Bryce and Ren from Equity Mates to unpack the Australian property market, financial education in Australia, and the growing demand for simple low cost ways to build wealth. They compare risk, leverage and regulation across property and shares, explain why a 95 percent mortgage feels normal but stock market leverage feels scary, and lay out what still works for long term investors after negative gearing changes. You will learn why property advice in Australia is still unregulated compared to shares, how property vs shares Australia has performed as an inflation hedge, how etf investing and global diversification work for beginners, and why blue chip quality assets held for the long term beat market timing and noise. What We Cover In This Episode ✅ Why the Australian property market feels harder for first time buyers ✅ Property vs shares Australia and the regulation gap ✅ How Equity Mates started and why education matters ✅ Leverage in property vs leverage in the stock market ✅ Budget impact, negative gearing and rent-vesting pressure ✅ ETF investing, diversification and long term principles Timestamps: 00:00 - Property challenges and demand for leverage 00:59 - Welcome Bryce and Ren from Equity Mates 02:09 - The Equity Mates origin story 05:48 - Regulation gap property vs shares 10:15 - Property vs shares as inflation hedges 12:38 - Leverage in the stock market explained 17:44 - Budget impact and shift to shares 25:57 - AI earnings bubble vs dot com bubble 33:19 - Market noise and long term principles 37:08 - Private equity leverage and access Follow Equity Mates Website: https://equitymates.com/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/equitymates Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/equitymates/ About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes Australian property market | Property vs shares Australia | Property investment | Real estate investing | ETF investing | Investing for beginners #AustralianPropertyMarket #PropertyVsSharesAustralia #PropertyInvestment #RealEstateInvesting #EtfInvesting #InvestingForBeginners #PropertyInvestingAustralia #NegativeGearing #StockMarket #FinancialEducationAustralia #WealthBuilding #AustraliaProperty #InvestmentStrategy #PassiveInvesting
Interest rates are into the sixes and could touch seven by year end, so knowing your real numbers matters more than ever. Reece and Lachlan launch PropStac and walk through how to stress test a property portfolio in a downturn. PropStac For Free 👉 https://propstac.com.au/?signup=1&ref=episode109 Speak with an Advisor 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_109 After almost two years of building, PropStac is live. It is the portfolio tool Lachlan built so he could know his own numbers, and it is now open for listeners to register and use themselves. In this episode we show how to stress test a portfolio against rates at 7 to 7.5%, how to work out your real monthly cash burn, and how to know whether your cash runway can carry you through. We also go round the grounds on the data. Using PropStac’s affordability ceiling view, we look at which markets have exceeded their ceiling and have the most room to fall, why Sydney has corrected hardest, and where there is still runway, including Melbourne and Darwin. The theme throughout is simple: protect your position first, because rule number one is do not lose a dollar. What we cover: ✅ Why rates in the sixes, heading for seven, change every investor’s numbers ✅ How to stress test a portfolio and work out your real cash burn ✅ Cash buffers and the six month runway rule ✅ Why forced sellers can see discounts of 50% or more ✅ Why you should not buy until you have done your numbers ✅ How to decide which properties to sell, and how to test the market ✅ The affordability ceiling method, and why Sydney fell hardest ✅ Where there is still runway: Melbourne and Darwin ✅ The risk hiding in speculative regional stock ✅ PropStac is live and free to register this month Timestamps: 0:00 The downturn warning 00:50 PropStac is live, and why it was built 02:21 Know your numbers: stress testing your portfolio 06:00 Modelling your real costs at 6 to 7% rates 07:47 Forced sellers and the discount risk 08:17 Why not to buy until you have done your numbers 09:52 Which properties to sell, and testing the market 17:12 The affordability ceiling, and why Sydney fell hardest 25:05 Melbourne, Darwin and where the runway is 30:40 Register for PropStac About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: know your numbers property | stress test property portfolio | australian property downturn | interest rates heading to 7 percent | affordability ceiling | sydney property market | darwin property market | forced sellers discount | propstac launch | follio property podcast #AustralianProperty #PropertyInvesting #PropertyMarket2026 #PropertyDownturn #InterestRates #SydneyProperty #DarwinProperty #PropStac #KnowYourNumbers #FollioPropertyPodcast
Is the Australian housing crisis a failure of government policy? Shadow Housing Minister Andrew Bragg says yes, and he brings the numbers. $10 billion spent, 17 homes built, and close to $80 billion in new taxes that he argues are shutting down housing supply across the Australian property market. Get Access to PropStac 👉 https://propstac.com.au?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_108 Looking to invest 👉 https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_108 In this episode of the Follio Property Podcast, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty sit down with Senator Andrew Bragg to look at what's really behind the housing crisis in Australia. Australia needs about 250,000 new homes a year but is on track to build only 170,000. Meanwhile, 1.5 million people have arrived in four years against just 500,000 homes built. Bragg explains why negative gearing and capital gains tax changes could push rents up and investors out. He also says first home buyers in Australia are falling into negative equity under the 5% deposit scheme, and that builder insolvencies point to a broken system. If you're a property investor, a first home buyer, or a homeowner trying to read where real estate in Australia goes next, this conversation shows the risks the mainstream narrative is missing. What we cover: ✅ Why $80 billion in new property taxes could cut housing supply by 35,000 homes ✅ The negative gearing and CGT changes that could hit investors and push rents higher ✅ Why first home buyer applications are down 20 to 30% and many buyers face negative equity ✅ How a 2,000-page building code adds about $70,000 to the cost of a new home ✅ Why Bragg wants migration of 170,000 to 180,000 a year to match housing supply ✅ The Coalition's plan to roll back taxes and deregulate construction Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: Senator Andrew Bragg on housing 01:24 His view on the budget and the property market since 05:40 On supply, demand and migration 11:00 The Liberal Party's position and rebuilding confidence 16:00 Inside the construction code and build costs 19:40 Construction productivity and union influence 25:00 Super funds, self-managed super and housing 32:20 Migration levels and demand-side measures 36:00 Quick fire: supply, negative gearing and super for housing Follow Senator Andrew Bragg: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/braggsenator Profile: https://www.andrewbragg.com/ About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian housing crisis | housing crisis Australia | negative gearing | Australian property market | first home buyers Australia | Andrew Bragg | Capital Gains Tax Changes | Housing Supply Shortage | Superannuation For Housing | Building Code Reform #AustralianHousingCrisis #HousingCrisisAustralia #AustralianPropertyMarket #NegativeGearing #FirstHomeBuyers #PropertyInvestingAustralia #RealEstateAustralia #AndrewBragg #CapitalGainsTax #HousingSupply #AustralianPolitics #Superannuation #PropertyInvestor #FollioProperty