Show Notes
Emerging markets face a challenging mix of persistent inflation, potential Fed hikes, U.S. political uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Yet in this episode of Signals & Noise, David Hauner, Head of Global Emerging Markets Fixed Income Strategy at BofA Securities, explains why he remains constructive on EM carry despite a more difficult backdrop. Drawing from BofA's "Buy Back EM" outlook, Hauner outlines four key themes shaping emerging markets: Treasury market developments, a more hawkish Fed, U.S. midterm elections, and evolving EM monetary policy. He discusses why higher-yielding currencies in markets such as Brazil, Colombia, Turkey and frontier economies continue to look attractive, while remaining more cautious on EM rates and sovereign credit spreads. The episode also explores the outlook for the Chinese renminbi, risks from oil price volatility and the Iran situation, Brazil's upcoming election, and why investors should distinguish between opportunities in EM carry and risks in broader EM fixed income markets.
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