Panic World

The sicko who invented prediction markets

Panic World

Show Notes

Where did prediction markets come from, and why are they more popular than ever?

Charlie Warzel joins the pod once again to discuss the proliferation of these strange companies like Kalshi and Polymarket that allow you to bet on nearly anything — monetizing the good, and mostly bad things.

We go into the early 2000s background of these platforms, led by Robin Hanson, an economist and self-described “Jungian ENTP” who originally got involved with prediction markets through his “Policy Analysis Market” as a means to anticipate political instability and terrorist attacks; how they are used now; and whether we’re headed into Hanson’s desired “futarchy.”

Our guest Charlie Warzel writes the Galaxy Brain newsletter and podcast. Subscribe to the newsletter here and check out the podcast here or wherever you listen. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

More from Panic World

Oct 21, 2026

In 2010, Hasbro launched a new generation of My Little Pony toys, and debuted a nice little television show to accompany it. It was called My Little Pony: Friendship Is Magic, and over a million people tuned into its premiere. Although perhaps not the kind of people Hasbro big wigs expected.

Oct 14, 2026

Have you ever been gang stalked? Or gang stalked someone?

Oct 7, 2026

Why are food videos so popular online? And why are the most viral ones also the grossest?

Oct 3, 2026

Sit down and take a seat with Ryan & Grant. They discuss the recent release of Primetime as a follow-up to this week’s episode.

Sep 30, 2026

To Catch A Predator launched in 2004 and was immediately a massive hit, but despite its long-lasting cultural impact — highlighted by last week’s release of Primetime — it only ran for one season and twenty episodes. The show ended after an assistant District Attorney in Texas died by suicide. Is it ethically worse? Is this justice? Why does it feel so gross?

See all episodes →