Property Buzz: Rate rises, housing shortages, and a changing property market

Prestige vendors are being asked to accept millions less, forecasters are revising their predictions down, and the RBA is hinting that inflation is worse than expected ... but will rising yields be a silver lining? Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman unpack what it could mean for investors, first home buyers and anyone with a mortgage. On this episode of Property Buzz, Phil Tarrant and Liam Garman look at a market where negative equity is spreading. They discuss a report that 20,000 Perth homes are now worth less than their owners paid and a Harbourside Sydney listing where the guide has reportedly slipped from a $28 million offer to $20 million-plus. The pair then weigh up the forecasts, including JPMorgan's revised outlook and Coolabah Capital's warning that some pockets could fall by as much as 40 per cent. Garman explains why he doesn't agree with every call, and why falling prices could open up higher yields in blue-chip suburbs for long-term investors. Both urge listeners to do their own due diligence and be wary of spruikers. Tarrant also challenges a report that investors are shifting to new builds, while the hosts discuss what proposed changes to trusts could mean for tradies and builders, and how rising interest costs and the pullback of SMSFs are adding pressure to developers. Then it's on to rates and politics: hints of a Melbourne Cup rate rise, what is feeding inflation beyond the war in Iran, and One Nation's pledge to restore the capital gains tax discount for up to two investment properties. Garman argues investors should factor in every political outcome, with the hosts floating a tongue-in-cheek policy of one negatively geared property per child. To get in involved, leave questions for Phil and Liam, or simply share videos or memes - join the Whatsapp group here.

Josh Crealy used to sell commercial property for a living. Now he says most investors are pivoting from residential too early, and he's put his money into Melbourne and western Sydney units instead. On this episode of The Smart Property Investment Show, Liam Garman sits down with LEVR's Josh Crealy, a former commercial sales agent who has bought 15 Melbourne properties in the past 18 months, to ask where he'd put his money now and why. Crealy says the 18.6-year land cycle points to Melbourne and Sydney leading the next recovery, with the smaller capitals having already had their run. He treats the cycle as a framework only, and explains why it must be overlaid with supply, demand and affordability. Then he explains why he's wary of commercial property. From a Perth hair salon with a tenant who isn't paying to an off-the-plan warehouse with a rent-back guarantee that left its owner unable to sell for what they paid, Crealy shares the cautionary tales he's seen. He also outlines what to check in a lease, and why he believes better commercial buying opportunities could be 12 to 24 months away. The pair also compare individual units with unit blocks, including how lenders classify larger blocks as commercial loans, what that means for loan-to-value ratios and borrowing power, and the checks Crealy runs before buying. If you like this episode, show your support by rating us or leaving a review on Apple Podcasts and by following Smart Property Investment on social media: Facebook, X (formerly Twitter) and LinkedIn.

A long lease isn't always a safe one, and a headline yield can hide months of vacancy. Victor Kumar says the investors who win in commercial are the ones who know exactly how to manage risk before they buy. Commercial property carries more risk than residential, but not all of it is unavoidable. In part three of the Smart Property Investment Post-Budget Guide to Commercial Property Investing, Phil Tarrant and Victor Kumar of Right Property Group break down what can quietly destroy a commercial investment, and how to protect yourself. Kumar explains why vacancy can run to months or even years rather than weeks, and why the yield is really the price you're paid for carrying risk. They also look at how to size up a tenant, from digging into the lease and the business behind it to checking whether a guarantee is backed by real cash or just a promise. Then there's the fine print. The pair walk through the lease details that can make or break a deal, from "triple net" claims that don't hold up to who pays for fit-outs and make-good clauses, and why Kumar says using your usual residential solicitor on a commercial lease is like treating a fracture with a massage. They also cover economic risk, structural shifts and property-specific traps, including asbestos roofs, contamination and zoning problems. Kumar shares a live example of how he restructured a lease to de-risk a $6 million purchase, and why every investment needs an exit plan.

From rat houses and meth houses to a property nicknamed "The Brothel", we've seen some seriously questionable properties turn into incredible investments. We have so many wild stories and bargain deals to share that one episode just wasn't enough. Part 2 is out now!

Investors could be missing new lending opportunities as second- and third-tier lenders ramp up competition, making finance strategy and cash flow more important than ever. On The Property Nerds podcast, Arjun Paliwal speaks with broker Corey Goldby about a post-budget lending shake-up, as second- and third-tier lenders compete harder for investors with more flexible borrowing options. Goldby argues against mapping out a decade of purchases, instead focusing on getting the next deal right, with cash flow, lending policy and available funds shaping each move. The pair discuss investors buying several properties before pausing, selling at a loss to reduce debt and the transaction costs that can erode gains when selling and re-entering the market. They also examine the importance of keeping a cash buffer when releasing equity, aligning finance and accounting advice, and choosing ownership structures that support borrowing and income distribution. For business owners facing tax debt, Goldby points to alternative lending options, including high-LVR and low-documentation loans, while noting the extra interest costs that can come with them.