Show Notes
Under its constitution, Ukraine is meant to be in the midst of parliamentary and presidential elections over the coming months. But there’s a hitch - under martial law Ukraine’s constitution prevents it from holding them. But there’s a case being made to change this and hold them anyway. So what would be the benefit? Would elections bolster Zelensky’s support, or unleash unnecessary chaos in a country already engulfed by it? And with millions of Ukrainians abroad or fighting on the front lines, how would you technically hold them, anyway?
To find out more about these potential elections, this week on Power Lines we speak with Anatoliy Oktysiuk, a political scientist, who has been working in the Ukrainian political scene for the past decade, assessing how things are run on a granular level behind the scenes in Ukrainian politics. He currently does this for Democracy House, a think tank in Kyiv.
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More from Power Lines: From Ukraine to the World
Ukraine’s economy has been one of the main bright spots after two years of brutal fighting. With decent preparation work undertaken over the past few years, and continued aid from Western partners, there has not been a bank run, there has not been an economic collapse, and Ukraine has been able to continue fighting the Russian invaders.
The war in Ukraine has evolved a huge amount since it began nearly 2 years ago, not least in terms of the equipment now being used on the front lines. This has been most starkly seen in the use of drones, as these unmanned aerial technologies are now at the forefront of reconnaissance and combat operations for both sides.
President Zelensky has said he wants to call up 450,000 - 500,000 new troops to the Ukrainian army in 2024. And recently, there have been proposed law changes to bring this through - laws that include more punishment against evasion, lowering the mobilisation age, and even setting a time limit for demobilisation. But this law is pretty controversial, causing debate in Ukrainian society against parts which have been seen as draconian, perhaps even enabling corruption.
As 2024 begins, the outlook for Ukraine is generally pessimistic, with foreign aid dwindling and the counter offensive stalled. But there is cause for optimism: Ukraine’s businesses and the economy remain resilient. Since the beginning of the full scale invasion, the business sector has been one of the flexible, not collapsing in the way many predicted. Ukrainians’ entrepreneurial spirit has maintained, and in fact flourished, with huge numbers of small businesses being founded since 2022.
2023 was a really difficult year for Ukraine. People expected that after the Kharkiv and Kherson counter offensives to spawn a whole host of military successes, but in reality, things were more difficult. The counteroffensive stalled, and meanwhile, Western support has started to fracture.